# Amazon (AMZN) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Amazon. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/amazon/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 280522000000 | 21653000000 | 36330000000 | 11588000000 |
| 2022 | 386064000000 | 25924000000 | 48079000000 | 21331000000 |
| 2023 | 469822000000 | -14726000000 | 59312000000 | 33364000000 |
| 2024 | 513983000000 | -16893000000 | 54169000000 | -2722000000 |
| 2025 | 574785000000 | 32217000000 | 85515000000 | 30425000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Amazon's core business model and how does it generate revenue?

Amazon operates a hybrid ecosystem combining an asset-heavy retail and logistics network, a high-margin transaction tollbooth, a subscription model, and a capital-intensive technology platform. The company monetizes its vast customer base through retail sales, third-party seller fees, subscription services like Amazon Prime, and a rapidly growing digital advertising business, alongside its leading AWS cloud platform.

### How does Amazon's cloud computing segment, AWS, contribute to its overall revenue?

Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading cloud computing platform globally, representing approximately 18% of Amazon's total revenue. It operates as a capital-intensive, utility-like technology platform that competes directly with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. The company is heavily investing in AI infrastructure to drive further AWS growth.

### What are Amazon's primary capital expenditure priorities, and how do they impact its financial model?

Amazon's capital expenditures are primarily growth capex, heavily directed towards AI infrastructure, including Trainium and Inferentia chips, and data center expansion. Capex as a percentage of revenue is projected to surge to approximately 15% to 18% in 2025, with stated plans to invest over $100 billion annually in generative AI.

### What are the key revenue growth drivers for Amazon's Online Stores segment?

Revenue for Amazon's Online Stores segment is primarily driven by active customer accounts, average order value, and order frequency. Key growth levers include faster delivery speeds, which can drive higher conversion, though the segment faces headwinds from consumers trading down to discount competitors.

### What is the purpose of the Amazon financial model, particularly concerning its valuation?

The Amazon financial model projects the company's future free cash flow and a sum-of-the-parts equity valuation. Its main purpose is to determine whether the massive ongoing capital expenditure in artificial intelligence infrastructure will generate sufficient AWS and advertising growth to justify the current share price.

### Is there an Excel financial model available for Amazon, and what is its forecast horizon?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Amazon (AMZN) is available for download. This model provides detailed financial projections with a forecast horizon spanning from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030.