# Amcor (AMCR) Financial Model

Free Excel 3-statement financial model and company analysis for Amcor.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/amcor
- Industry: Packaging
- Downloadable model: Yes
- Excel download: https://finamodel.com/company-models/AMCR.xlsx

## Model Purpose

This model evaluates the consolidated equity valuation, cash flow generation, and synergy realisation of Amcor plc following its transformational acquisition of Berry Global, enabling an equity analyst to determine if the combined entity can achieve its stated $1.8–$1.9 billion free cash flow and $650 million synergy targets for FY2026 and beyond.

## Company Overview

- Amcor plc is a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging solutions for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, home, and personal care products.
- **Business segments:**
  - Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (~65% of pro-forma revenue)
  - Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (~35% of pro-forma revenue)
- **Key geographies:** Highly globalised, with significant exposure to North America, Europe, and emerging markets.
- **Business model type:** Asset-heavy manufacturing with raw material pass-through pricing mechanisms.
- **Competitive position:** The largest publicly traded pure-play consumer packaging company globally, significantly enhanced by the recent Berry Global merger.
- **Recent major events:** Completed the transformational all-stock acquisition of Berry Global on 30 April 2025. Executed a 1-for-5 reverse stock split on 14 January 2026.

## Revenue Deep Dive



### Global Flexible Packaging Solutions

- **Segment name:** Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (combines legacy Amcor Flexibles and Berry Global Flexibles).
- **Revenue driver formula:** (Legacy Volumes + Berry Volumes) x Price/Mix Factor x FX Translation + Raw Material Pass-Through.
- **Historical growth rate:** 1-3% organic volume growth historically, though reported revenue fluctuates wildly with resin prices.
- **Key growth levers and headwinds:** Transition to sustainable/recyclable materials, healthcare and protein packaging demand, offset by consumer destocking and macroeconomic volume pressures.
- **Pricing dynamics:** Contractual pass-through of raw material costs (resin, aluminium) with a slight time lag.
- **Revenue recognition notes:** Recognised at a point in time when control of the packaging products transfers to the customer.
- **Seasonality:** Relatively stable, though slight upticks in Q4 (June quarter) due to Northern Hemisphere summer beverage and food demand.

### Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

- **Segment name:** Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (combines legacy Amcor Rigid and Berry Global Consumer Packaging).
- **Revenue driver formula:** (Legacy Volumes + Berry Volumes) x Price/Mix Factor x FX Translation + Raw Material Pass-Through.
- **Historical growth rate:** Flat to low single-digit volume growth.
- **Key growth levers and headwinds:** North American hot-fill beverage demand, shift from glass to PET, offset by anti-plastic consumer sentiment.
- **Pricing dynamics:** Heavy reliance on contractual resin pass-throughs.
- **Revenue recognition notes:** Point in time upon shipment.
- **Seasonality:** Stronger in the second half of the fiscal year (March and June quarters) driven by North American beverage consumption.

## Cost Structure



### Variable Costs / COGS

- **Line-by-line breakdown:** Raw materials (predominantly polymer resins, films, aluminium, inks, and adhesives), direct manufacturing labour, energy, and freight.
- **Gross margin range:** 19–21% (highly dependent on the denominator effect of raw material pass-throughs).
- **Key input costs and commodity exposures:** Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), PET resins, and aluminium.
- **How COGS scales with revenue:** Linear with volume, but COGS and Revenue move in tandem based on commodity prices without impacting absolute gross profit dollars.

### Operating Expenses

- **R&D:** ~1% of revenue; focused on sustainable materials and lightweighting.
- **SG&A:** ~8–10% of revenue; includes sales force, corporate overhead, and integration costs.
- **Depreciation & Amortisation:** ~4–5% of revenue; significant step-up post-Berry acquisition due to acquired intangibles.
- **Restructuring / one-time charges:** High frequency currently due to the Berry Global integration and portfolio optimisation actions.

### Margin Profile

- **Gross margin:** 19–21%.
- **Adjusted EBITDA margin:** 14.0–15.5% (Q2 FY2026 reported at 15.2%).
- **Adjusted EBIT margin:** 11.0–11.5% (Q2 FY2026 reported at 11.1%).
- **Margin trend:** Expanding due to the realisation of the $650 million Berry synergy target and strict cost controls.

## Balance Sheet Structure

- **Total assets:** ~$35–40 billion post-Berry acquisition.
- **Key asset categories:** PP&E (manufacturing footprint), Goodwill, and Acquired Intangible Assets (customer relationships).
- **Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets:** >50% following the Berry Global transaction.
- **Working capital profile:**
  - **Days Sales Outstanding (DSO):** 40–45 days.
  - **Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO):** 50–60 days.
  - **Days Payable Outstanding (DPO):** 65–75 days.
  - **Net working capital as % of revenue:** 5–8%.
  - **Is working capital positive or negative?** Positive, requiring cash absorption during volume growth phases.
- **PP&E:** Heavy manufacturing equipment, extruders, and moulds. Useful lives range from 3 to 20 years.
- **Right-of-use assets:** Material, representing leased warehouse and manufacturing spaces globally.

## Capital Expenditure & Investment

- **Capex as % of revenue:** ~4.0–4.5%.
- **Maintenance capex vs. growth capex:** ~60% maintenance / 40% growth (sustainability and capacity expansion).
- **Major capex programmes underway or planned:** FY2026 guidance is $850–$900 million, focused on integration and sustainable packaging capabilities.
- **M&A pattern:** Transformational (Bemis in 2019, Berry Global in 2025) interspersed with bolt-on acquisitions.

## Debt & Capital Structure

- **Total debt and net debt:** Net debt of $14.08 billion as of 31 December 2025.
- **Debt/EBITDA ratio:** ~2.5x–3.0x target range.
- **Credit rating:** Investment grade (BBB/Baa2).
- **Key debt instruments:** Commercial paper, multi-currency revolving credit facilities, and unsecured senior notes.
- **Interest rate profile:** Predominantly fixed via bonds, with FY2026 net interest expense guided at $570–$600 million.
- **Share repurchase programme:** Historically active, but currently paused or minimised to prioritise debt paydown post-Berry.
- **Dividend policy:** Progressive dividend policy. Post 1-for-5 reverse split, the quarterly dividend is $0.65 per share ($2.60 annualised).

## Cash Flow Characteristics

- **Operating cash flow conversion:** Strong, typically >100% of net income due to high D&A.
- **Free cash flow margin:** ~8–10% of revenue. FY2026 guidance is $1.8–$1.9 billion.
- **Major non-cash items:** Depreciation, amortisation of acquired intangibles, and stock-based compensation.
- **Working capital cash flow impact:** Highly seasonal; cash is typically consumed in H1 (July–December) and generated in H2 (January–June).
- **Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate:** Cash taxes are generally lower than GAAP taxes due to accelerated depreciation on heavy machinery.

## Sheet Structure

1. **Assumptions:** Hardcoded drivers for macroeconomic inputs, resin prices, FX rates, and Berry synergy phasing.
2. **M&A & Synergies:** Dedicated schedule tracking the $650m pre-tax synergy realisation, integration costs, and pro-forma base adjustments.
3. **Revenue Build:** Volume, price/mix, and FX drivers split by Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions.
4. **Income Statement:** Consolidated P&L mirroring the 10-K, ending in GAAP Net Income and Adjusted EPS.
5. **Working Capital:** Schedules for Receivables, Inventory, and Payables based on days outstanding.
6. **PP&E & Intangibles:** Capex, depreciation waterfall, and amortisation of Berry intangibles.
7. **Debt Schedule:** Tranche-by-tranche debt build, interest expense calculation, and commercial paper tracking.
8. **Balance Sheet:** Standard balancing statement.
9. **Cash Flow Statement:** Indirect method, bridging Net Income to OCF and FCF.
10. **Valuation (DCF):** Unlevered free cash flow build, WACC calculation, and terminal value.
11. **EPS & Share Count:** Tracking the 1-for-5 reverse stock split impact and weighted average shares outstanding.

## Key Financial Relationships

1. `Flexibles Revenue = (Legacy Amcor Flexibles Volume + Berry Flexibles Volume) * (1 + Volume Growth) * (1 + Price/Mix) * (1 + FX Impact)`
2. `Rigid Revenue = (Legacy Amcor Rigid Volume + Berry Rigid Volume) * (1 + Volume Growth) * (1 + Price/Mix) * (1 + FX Impact)`
3. `Raw Material Pass-Through Impact = (Current Period Resin Price - Prior Period Resin Price) * Volume * Pass-Through %`
4. `Total Net Sales = Flexibles Revenue + Rigid Revenue`
5. `Realised Synergies = Total Synergy Target ($650m) * Phasing % for Current Year`
6. `Adjusted EBIT = Reported EBIT + Integration Costs + Restructuring + Amortisation of Acquired Intangibles`
7. `Adjusted EBITDA = Adjusted EBIT + Depreciation`
8. `Net Interest Expense = (Average Debt Balance * Weighted Average Interest Rate) - Interest Income`
9. `Effective Tax Rate = Tax Expense / EBT (Guided at 19-21%)`
10. `Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditure ($850-$900m guided) - Dividends Paid`
11. `Adjusted EPS = Adjusted Net Income / Post-Split Weighted Average Shares Outstanding`

## Cross-Sheet Dependencies

- The **M&A & Synergies** sheet is the critical engine; it feeds operating expenses on the **Income Statement** (reducing SG&A/COGS) and integration cash costs on the **Cash Flow Statement**.
- The **Revenue Build** feeds the top line of the **Income Statement** and drives the **Working Capital** sheet.
- The **Debt Schedule** calculates interest expense, which feeds the **Income Statement**, which in turn feeds Net Income on the **Cash Flow Statement**.
- **Circularity Risk:** Interest expense depends on the average debt balance, which depends on the revolver draw, which is driven by the cash flow deficit/surplus, which is impacted by interest expense. A circuit breaker toggle must be included.

## Sign Convention

- **Revenue and Assets:** Positive.
- **Expenses and Liabilities:** Positive on their respective schedules, subtracted in totals (e.g., Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS).
- **Cash Flow:** Inflows are positive, outflows (capex, dividends, debt repayment) are negative.
- **Contra-accounts:** Accumulated depreciation is negative on the balance sheet.

## Things Most Likely to Go Wrong

1. **Stub Period Misalignment:** The Berry Global acquisition closed on 30 April 2025. FY2025 only contains two months of Berry's financials. The model must properly annualise the base for FY2026 YoY growth comparisons.
2. **Reverse Stock Split:** Amcor executed a 1-for-5 reverse stock split on 14 January 2026. Historical per-share metrics (EPS, Dividends) must be retroactively adjusted to prevent massive optical drops in valuation multiples.
3. **Raw Material Pass-Through Distortion:** Changes in resin prices swing top-line revenue significantly without impacting absolute profit dollars, causing optical margin compression/expansion. The model must separate volume growth from price/mix.
4. **Constant Currency vs. Reported:** Amcor reports heavily in constant currency. The model must include an FX toggle, as USD strength will materially drag reported revenue.
5. **Synergy Double Counting:** Do not grow base margins AND add synergy dollar savings. Synergies must be modeled as a specific deduction from the combined pro-forma cost base.
6. **Amortisation of Intangibles:** The Berry deal created massive intangible assets. GAAP EPS will be severely depressed by this amortisation; the model must clearly bridge to Adjusted EPS.
7. **Seasonality in Working Capital:** Amcor's cash flow is heavily weighted to the second half of the fiscal year. Quarterly models must reflect this or risk triggering false revolver draws in Q1/Q2.
8. **Dividend Payout Calculation:** The dividend is declared in USD but paid to ASX CDI holders in AUD. Ensure the model calculates the total cash outflow based on the consolidated USD dividend per share.

## Validation Checks

1. "FY2026 Free Cash Flow must equal $1.8–$1.9 billion per management guidance."
2. "FY2026 Capex must fall between $850 million and $900 million."
3. "Net Debt should reconcile to approximately $14.1 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026."
4. "Adjusted EBITDA margin must be in the 14.5–15.5% range."
5. "Effective tax rate must be between 19% and 21%."
6. "Total synergies realised by FY2028 must cap at $650 million pre-tax."
7. "Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every period."
8. "Post-split annualised dividend must equal $2.60 per share."

## Key Assumptions (Default Values)

| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flexibles Volume Growth | 1.5 | % | Conservative estimate based on recent Q2 FY2026 commentary of challenging volume environments. |
| Rigid Volume Growth | -1.0 | % | Reflects ongoing weakness in North American beverage volumes. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 15.2 | % | Actual reported margin for Q2 FY2026. |
| Adjusted EBIT Margin | 11.5 | % | Actual reported margin for H1 FY2026. |
| Target Synergies (Run-Rate) | 650 | $m | Management guidance for total pre-tax synergies by FY2028. |
| Capital Expenditure | 875 | $m | Midpoint of FY2026 guidance ($850-$900m). |
| Net Interest Expense | 585 | $m | Midpoint of FY2026 guidance ($570-$600m). |
| Effective Tax Rate | 20.0 | % | Midpoint of FY2026 guidance (19-21%). |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 42 | Days | Historical average for combined entity. |
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | 55 | Days | Historical average for combined entity. |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | 70 | Days | Historical average for combined entity. |
| Annual Dividend per Share | 2.60 | $ | Post 1-for-5 split quarterly dividend of $0.65 annualised. |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Standard discount rate for global packaging peers. |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0 | % | Long-term GDP-aligned growth rate. |

## Data Sources & Benchmarks

- **Filings:** SEC EDGAR (Amcor plc, CIK: 0001748790), Amcor Investor Relations website.
- **Key Peers:** Berry Global (historical pre-merger data), Smurfit Westrock (SW), International Paper (IP), Sealed Air (SEE), Sonoco (SON).
- **Industry Data:** ICIS (for global resin and polymer pricing), Fastmarkets (for packaging trends).
- **Consensus Estimates:** Bloomberg, FactSet, or Visible Alpha for forward EPS and FCF estimates.

## Sources

- Amcor Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release (3 February 2026)
- Amcor FY2025 Form 10-K and Form 8-K filings (August 2025)
- Amcor 2025 Proxy Statement (September 2025)
- Berry Global Acquisition Announcement and Closure Documents (April 2025)
- SEC EDGAR Database (sec.gov)
- ASX Announcements (asx.com.au)

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## Frequently asked questions

### What does Amcor plc do?

Amcor plc is a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging solutions for various products including food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, home, and personal care. It operates through Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segments.

### How does Amcor generate its revenue?

Amcor generates revenue primarily through its Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segments, which account for approximately 65% and 35% of pro-forma revenue, respectively. Its business model includes raw material pass-through pricing mechanisms, reflecting its asset-heavy manufacturing nature.

### What are Amcor's typical capital expenditure requirements?

Amcor's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is typically around 4.0–4.5%, with approximately 60% allocated to maintenance and 40% to growth initiatives. For FY2026, the company has guided for $850–$900 million in capex, focusing on integration and sustainable packaging capabilities.

### What are the key targets for Amcor's free cash flow and synergies post-acquisition?

Following the Berry Global acquisition, Amcor aims to achieve $1.8–$1.9 billion in free cash flow and $650 million in synergy targets for FY2026 and beyond. These targets are crucial for equity analysts evaluating the combined entity's valuation.

### Can I download a financial model for Amcor (AMCR)?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Amcor (AMCR) which evaluates the consolidated equity valuation, cash flow generation, and synergy realization. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030.

### What is Amcor's competitive position in the packaging industry?

Amcor is positioned as the largest publicly traded pure-play consumer packaging company globally, a status significantly enhanced by its recent acquisition of Berry Global. Its highly globalized operations give it significant exposure across North America, Europe, and emerging markets.

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