# American Water Works (AWK) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for American Water Works. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/american-water-works/forecast
- Industry: Utilities
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 3587000000 | -271000000 | 1796000000 | 621000000 |
| 2022 | 3743000000 | -396000000 | 1852000000 | 709000000 |
| 2023 | 3914000000 | -323000000 | 1832000000 | 1263000000 |
| 2024 | 3763000000 | -1189000000 | 1922000000 | 820000000 |
| 2025 | 4217000000 | -701000000 | 2208000000 | 944000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does American Water Works do?

American Water Works Company, Inc. is the largest publicly traded water and wastewater utility in the United States, providing essential services to approximately 14 million people. The company operates primarily as a regulated monopoly, earning a return on its infrastructure investments as determined by state Public Utility Commissions.

### How does American Water Works generate its revenue?

American Water Works primarily generates revenue from its Regulated Businesses, which accounts for approximately 92% of its total revenue. This is driven by authorized rate base, allowed return on capital, recoverable operating expenses, depreciation, and taxes. The remaining revenue comes from its Other segment, including the Military Services Group, through contracted fixed fees and variable volume charges.

### What is American Water Works' capital expenditure strategy?

American Water Works has a highly asset-heavy business model with significant capital expenditure, typically 60-65% of revenue, or about $3.2 billion annually. This includes a $19 to $20 billion capital plan for 2026-2030, with major investments in PFAS compliance and lead pipe replacement. Roughly 60% of this capex is for growth, while 40% is for maintenance.

### What are the main financial assumptions used in the American Water Works model?

Key assumptions in the financial model for American Water Works include a Revenue Growth rate of approximately 4.13% and COGS as 55% of revenue. Additionally, Capex is assumed to be 40% of revenue, and the Tax Rate is around 22.29%. These assumptions are used for the FY2026–FY2030 forecast horizon.

### Can I download a financial model for American Water Works?

Yes, a downloadable Excel model for American Water Works is available. This model forecasts the company's rate base growth, regulated revenue requirements, and capital funding needs. Its purpose is to determine equity valuation and assess the financial impact of the pending Essential Utilities merger.

### What factors drive American Water Works' regulated business growth?

Growth in American Water Works' regulated businesses is primarily driven by capital investment in infrastructure, such as projects for PFAS compliance and lead pipe replacement, which expands the authorized rate base. However, regulatory lag and customer affordability concerns can act as headwinds to this growth.