# AutoZone (AZO) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for AutoZone. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/autozone/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 11863743000 | 1632463000 | 2586094000 | 1617221000 |
| 2022 | 12631967000 | 2262372000 | 2815145000 | 1732972000 |
| 2023 | 14629585000 | 2896776000 | 3352210000 | 2170314000 |
| 2024 | 16252230000 | 2538744000 | 3712952000 | 2429604000 |
| 2025 | 17457209000 | 2144131000 | 3971563000 | 2528426000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is AutoZone's primary business model and how does it generate revenue?

AutoZone is the leading retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories, primarily serving Do-It-Yourself retail and Do-It-For-Me commercial customers. Its revenue is primarily generated through its Domestic Auto Parts segment (85-90%), with additional contributions from International operations and ALLDATA software. The company operates a highly cash-generative business model, benefiting from a negative working capital dynamic.

### What are the main segments driving AutoZone's revenue growth?

AutoZone's revenue growth is predominantly driven by its Domestic Auto Parts segment, which encompasses both DIY retail sales and Commercial (DIFM) sales. The International segment, with operations in Mexico and Brazil, also contributes significantly, especially with recent acceleration in international store openings. The expansion of the "Mega Hub" distribution network is also a key initiative to improve parts availability and support growth.

### How does AutoZone's negative working capital impact its financial model?

AutoZone's structurally negative working capital is a significant competitive advantage, as its massive inventory is entirely funded by vendor payables. This dynamic generates cash as the business grows, improving its overall cash flow profile. The financial model incorporates a NWC_Pct_Revenue assumption of -0.0806 to reflect this characteristic.

### What is AutoZone's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?

AutoZone's capital expenditure typically runs between 4.0% and 5.5% of revenue, with the financial model using an assumption of 0.0415. This capex is roughly 40% for maintenance and 60% for growth, funding new stores, Mega Hubs, and IT systems. A major capex program involves the aggressive rollout of Mega Hubs to enhance local inventory availability.

### What is the main purpose of the AutoZone financial model?

The AutoZone financial model is designed to project the company's future cash flows and capital structure. Its primary purpose is to determine AutoZone's intrinsic equity valuation. Additionally, it assesses the company's capacity to sustain its aggressive share repurchase program.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for AutoZone?

Yes, an Excel financial model for AutoZone is available for download. This general corporate model projects the company's financial performance from FY2026 through FY2030. It includes key assumptions such as revenue growth, COGS percentage of revenue, and capital expenditure percentage of revenue.