# Bunge Global (BG) Financial Model Free Excel 3-statement financial model and company analysis for Bunge Global. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/bunge-global - Industry: Food - Downloadable model: Yes - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/company-models/BG.xlsx ## Model Purpose This model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool for an analyst covering Bunge Global SA, focusing on forecasting commodity volume throughput, regional crush margins, and the financial integration of the transformational Viterra acquisition. ## Company Overview Bunge Global SA is a premier global agribusiness and food company that connects farmers to consumers by sourcing, processing, and distributing agricultural commodities. The company primarily buys, stores, transports, and processes oilseeds and grains to produce protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial and consumer use. Business segments (based on updated 2025 reporting): * Soybean Processing and Refining (approx. 45% of revenue) * Grain Merchandising and Milling (approx. 35% of revenue) * Softseed Processing and Refining (approx. 15% of revenue) * Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining (approx. 5% of revenue) Key geographies include North America, South America (especially Brazil and Argentina), and Europe. The business model is asset-heavy, relying on a vast global network of silos, processing plants, and port terminals. Bunge is a top-tier player in the global agricultural oligopoly, competing directly with Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus. Recent major events include the redomiciliation to Switzerland in late 2023 and the transformational $10.6 billion acquisition of Viterra, which closed on July 2, 2025. The Viterra deal added approximately $20 billion in pro forma half-year revenue and significantly expanded Bunge's origination footprint and softseed capabilities. ## Revenue Deep Dive ### Soybean Processing and Refining * **Segment name:** Soybean Processing and Refining * **Revenue driver formula:** Processed Volume (Metric Tons) x Average Realised Price per MT * **Historical growth rate:** Highly volatile due to underlying commodity prices; volumes grew 11% in 2025 to 41 million metric tons. * **Key growth levers and headwinds:** Global meat consumption (driving soybean meal demand for feed), renewable diesel demand (driving soybean oil demand), and South American crop yields. * **Pricing dynamics:** Spot and forward commodity pricing. Revenue fluctuates wildly with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean prices, but absolute revenue is less important than the "crush margin" (the spread between the cost of soybeans and the combined value of meal and oil). * **Revenue recognition notes:** Recognised upon transfer of control, typically when commodities are loaded onto vessels or delivered to customers. * **Seasonality:** Stronger in the second half of the year following the North American harvest and the South American export season. ### Softseed Processing and Refining * **Segment name:** Softseed Processing and Refining * **Revenue driver formula:** Processed Volume (MT) x Average Realised Price per MT * **Historical growth rate:** Volumes grew 16% in 2025 to 10.7 million metric tons, heavily boosted by the Viterra integration. * **Key growth levers and headwinds:** Canola, rapeseed, and sunflower seed supply. European biodiesel mandates are a major demand driver. * **Pricing dynamics:** Commodity-driven, dependent on European and Canadian crop conditions. * **Revenue recognition notes:** Point in time upon delivery. * **Seasonality:** Tied to the Northern Hemisphere harvest in late Q3 and Q4. ### Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining * **Segment name:** Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining * **Revenue driver formula:** Processed Volume (MT) x Average Realised Price per MT * **Historical growth rate:** Flat to low single digits historically. * **Key growth levers and headwinds:** Niche specialty oils and fats demand, plant-based protein trends. * **Pricing dynamics:** Slightly more stable than bulk commodities, often sold on negotiated contracts with food manufacturers. * **Revenue recognition notes:** Point in time upon delivery. * **Seasonality:** Less seasonal than bulk processing. ### Grain Merchandising and Milling * **Segment name:** Grain Merchandising and Milling * **Revenue driver formula:** Merchandised Volume (MT) x Average Realised Price per MT * **Historical growth rate:** Volumes surged 83% in 2025 to 67.1 million metric tons due to the Viterra acquisition. * **Key growth levers and headwinds:** Global trade flows, geopolitical disruptions (e.g., Black Sea grain corridor), and freight rates. * **Pricing dynamics:** Pure commodity trading and distribution. Extremely high revenue but very low margins. * **Revenue recognition notes:** Point in time upon delivery. * **Seasonality:** Highly dependent on global harvest cycles and regional supply-demand imbalances. ## Cost Structure ### Variable Costs / COGS * **Line-by-line breakdown:** Cost of Goods Sold includes the cost of raw agricultural commodities (soybeans, corn, wheat), freight and logistics, energy costs for processing plants, and direct plant labour. In 2025, COGS was $66.9 billion on $70.3 billion of sales. * **Gross margin range:** Extremely thin, typically 4.0% to 6.5% over the last 5 years. * **Key input costs:** Raw commodities, natural gas, and ocean freight. * **How COGS scales with revenue:** Almost perfectly linear with revenue, as both are driven by the same underlying commodity prices. The key metric is the absolute dollar margin per metric ton, not the gross margin percentage. ### Operating Expenses * **R&D:** Negligible as a percentage of revenue. * **SG&A:** Typically 1.5% to 2.5% of revenue. Includes corporate overhead, IT, and global trading desk compensation. * **Depreciation & Amortisation:** Approximately $975 million guided for 2026. Primarily tangible depreciation of silos, processing plants, and port facilities. * **Stock-Based Compensation:** Minimal as a percentage of revenue, but material to corporate overhead. * **Restructuring / one-time charges:** Frequent in recent years due to the Viterra integration and portfolio rationalisation. ### Margin Profile * **Gross margin:** 4.0% to 6.5%. * **EBITDA margin:** 2.5% to 4.0%. * **Operating margin:** 2.0% to 3.5%. * **Net margin:** 1.0% to 2.5%. * **Margin trend:** Margins compressed in 2024 and 2025 due to a global grain glut and lower crush margins, though absolute dollar earnings remain robust due to higher volumes from Viterra. ## Balance Sheet Structure * **Total assets:** Approximately $40 billion to $45 billion post-Viterra. * **Key asset categories:** Readily Marketable Inventories (RMI), Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E), and Goodwill. * **Goodwill & intangibles:** Increased significantly in 2025 due to the $10.6 billion Viterra acquisition. * **Working capital profile:** * **Days Sales Outstanding (DSO):** 15 to 25 days. * **Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO):** 30 to 45 days. * **Days Payable Outstanding (DPO):** 20 to 35 days. * **Net working capital as % of revenue:** Highly variable. * **Is working capital positive or negative?** Positive, but heavily skewed by RMI. RMI consists of agricultural commodities carried at fair value that are highly liquid. Bunge funds this inventory with short-term debt. * **PP&E:** Processing plants, grain elevators, port terminals, and railcars. Useful lives range from 15 to 30 years for heavy machinery and buildings. * **Right-of-use assets:** Material, primarily related to leased railcars, vessels, and port land. ## Capital Expenditure & Investment * **Capex as % of revenue:** 1.5% to 2.5% (revenue is too volatile to use as a strict benchmark; absolute dollar capex is a better metric). * **Maintenance capex vs. growth capex:** Roughly 40% maintenance, 60% growth. * **Major capex programmes:** $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion guided for 2026. Focus is on expanding the oilseeds platform, building a new soy protein concentrate plant in the US, and renewable fuel feedstock infrastructure. * **Capitalised software:** Immaterial compared to hard asset capex. * **M&A pattern:** Historically bolt-on, but the 2025 Viterra deal was a massive transformational acquisition. ## Debt & Capital Structure * **Total debt:** Assumed $9.8 billion of Viterra debt in 2025, bringing total debt significantly higher. * **Debt/EBITDA ratio:** Gross leverage is less relevant than "Adjusted Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA", which deducts RMI from total debt. Target adjusted leverage is typically 1.5x to 2.5x. * **Credit rating:** Investment grade (BBB/Baa2). * **Key debt instruments:** Commercial paper (used to fund RMI), revolving credit facilities, and senior unsecured notes. * **Maturity profile:** Laddered, with heavy reliance on short-term facilities for inventory funding. * **Interest rate profile:** Mix of fixed bonds and floating-rate short-term debt. 2026 net interest expense guided at $575 million to $625 million. * **Share repurchase programme:** Active. Board approved an additional $500 million authorisation in late 2024. * **Dividend policy:** Consistent dividend payer. Paid approximately $459 million in dividends in 2025. ## Cash Flow Characteristics * **Operating cash flow conversion:** Highly volatile due to working capital swings. An increase in commodity prices requires more cash to fund inventory, resulting in negative OCF even if the company is highly profitable. * **Free cash flow margin:** 1.0% to 2.0%, but management focuses on "Discretionary Cash Flow" (operating cash flow before working capital changes, minus maintenance capex). * **Major non-cash items:** Depreciation, amortisation, and mark-to-market timing differences on commodity contracts. * **Working capital cash flow impact:** Massive source or use of cash depending on the commodity price cycle. * **Capex intensity:** Moderate, but absolute dollars are large ($1.5B+). * **Cash tax rate:** Generally tracks the effective tax rate of 23% to 27%. ## Sheet Structure 1. **Assumptions:** Hardcoded drivers for macro commodity prices, segment volumes, crush margins, and corporate tax/interest guidance. 2. **Scenarios:** Toggles for base, bull, and bear cases regarding global crop yields and biofuel mandates. 3. **Income Statement:** Consolidated P&L mirroring the 10-K, down to Net Income Attributable to Bunge. 4. **Segment Build:** Revenue and EBIT broken out by Soybean Processing, Softseed Processing, Other Oilseeds, and Grain Merchandising. 5. **Balance Sheet:** Standard assets and liabilities, with a specific breakout for Readily Marketable Inventories (RMI) under current assets. 6. **Cash Flow Statement:** Indirect method, explicitly breaking out the cash impact of RMI changes. 7. **Working Capital Schedule:** DSO, DIO, DPO calculations, separating RMI from standard operating inventory. 8. **Debt & Interest Schedule:** Tranches of short-term debt (commercial paper) and long-term bonds, calculating interest expense based on 2026 guidance. 9. **PP&E & Capex Schedule:** Base roll-forward of gross PP&E, accumulated depreciation, and capex. 10. **Adjusted Metrics & Valuation:** Calculation of Adjusted Net Debt (Total Debt - Cash - RMI), Adjusted EBITDA, and a DCF valuation. ## Key Financial Relationships 1. `Soybean Processing Revenue = Soybean Processed Volume (MT) x Average Soybean Realised Price per MT` 2. `Grain Merchandising Revenue = Merchandised Volume (MT) x Average Grain Realised Price per MT` 3. `Segment EBIT = Segment Revenue - Segment COGS - Segment SG&A Allocation` 4. `Total Net Sales = Soybean Processing Revenue + Softseed Processing Revenue + Other Oilseeds Revenue + Grain Merchandising Revenue` 5. `Readily Marketable Inventories (RMI) = Total Inventory x RMI % (historically ~70-80% of total inventory)` 6. `Adjusted Net Debt = Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt - Cash & Cash Equivalents - Readily Marketable Inventories` 7. `Adjusted EBITDA = Net Income + Interest Expense + Income Tax Expense + D&A + Mark-to-Market Timing Differences + Viterra Integration Costs` 8. `Discretionary Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations (excluding working capital changes) - Maintenance Capex` 9. `Interest Expense = (Average Short-Term Debt x Short-Term Rate) + (Average Long-Term Debt x Long-Term Rate)` 10. `Effective Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Earnings Before Tax (guided at 23% to 27% for 2026)` ## Cross-Sheet Dependencies * The **Segment Build** sheet drives the top-line revenue and COGS on the **Income Statement**. * The **Working Capital Schedule** feeds directly into the **Cash Flow Statement**, but the RMI line must be linked to the **Debt & Interest Schedule** because Bunge uses short-term debt to fund RMI. * The **Debt & Interest Schedule** calculates interest expense, which flows to the **Income Statement**. This creates a circularity: Net Income drives Cash Flow, which drives the need for short-term debt, which drives Interest Expense, which impacts Net Income. A circuit breaker toggle is required. * The **PP&E & Capex Schedule** feeds depreciation to the **Income Statement** and capex to the **Cash Flow Statement**. ## Sign Convention * Revenues, asset balances, and equity balances are entered as positive numbers. * Expenses (COGS, SG&A, Interest, Taxes) are entered as positive numbers and subtracted in subtotals. * Liability balances are entered as positive numbers. * On the Cash Flow Statement, cash inflows are positive and cash outflows (including capex and dividends) are negative. ## Things Most Likely to Go Wrong * **Ignoring RMI in Leverage Calculations:** Rating agencies and management deduct RMI from total debt to calculate adjusted leverage. Failing to do this will make Bunge look artificially distressed. * **Focusing on Gross Margin Percentages:** In agribusiness, gross margin percentages are meaningless because revenue inflates with commodity prices. The model must focus on absolute dollar EBIT per metric ton. * **Viterra Stub Period:** Viterra closed on July 2, 2025. FY2025 only includes 6 months of Viterra. FY2026 will be the first full year. Year-over-year growth rates for 2026 will look artificially high if not adjusted for the pro forma base. * **Mark-to-Market Volatility:** Bunge reports GAAP earnings that include mark-to-market timing differences on forward contracts. The model should forecast "Adjusted EPS" and hold MTM differences at zero for future periods. * **Working Capital Cash Drain:** If the model forecasts a spike in commodity prices, it must simultaneously forecast a massive cash outflow for working capital to fund the more expensive inventory. * **Share Count Dilution:** Bunge issued approximately 65.6 million shares to fund the Viterra acquisition. The model must use the updated post-close share count for 2026 EPS calculations. * **Divestiture Adjustments:** Bunge had to divest Viterra assets in Hungary and Poland for regulatory reasons. These should be excluded from forward projections. * **Interest Expense Spike:** The assumption of $9.8 billion in Viterra debt significantly increases the interest burden. Use the 2026 guidance of $575M-$625M rather than historical ratios. ## Validation Checks * "Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA should remain between 1.5x and 2.5x; flag if it exceeds 3.0x." * "Capex must be between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion for FY2026 based on management guidance." * "Depreciation and Amortisation must be approximately $975 million for FY2026." * "Effective tax rate should be in the 23% to 27% range; flag if outside this band." * "Net interest expense should be between $575 million and $625 million for FY2026." * "Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every period." * "FY2026 Adjusted EPS should align with management guidance of $7.50 to $8.00." ## Key Assumptions (Default Values) | Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale | |---|---|---|---| | FY2026 Soybean Processing Volume | 42.0 | Million MT | Modest growth from 2025 actuals (41.0M) | | FY2026 Softseed Processing Volume | 21.5 | Million MT | Annualising the 6-month Viterra contribution from 2025 | | FY2026 Grain Merchandising Volume | 134.0 | Million MT | Annualising the 6-month Viterra contribution from 2025 | | COGS as % of Revenue | 95.0 | % | Historical average reflecting thin commodity margins | | SG&A as % of Revenue | 2.0 | % | Historical average, adjusted for Viterra synergies | | FY2026 Capex | 1,600 | USD Millions | Midpoint of 2026 management guidance ($1.5B - $1.7B) | | FY2026 D&A | 975 | USD Millions | Exact management guidance for 2026 | | FY2026 Net Interest Expense | 600 | USD Millions | Midpoint of 2026 management guidance ($575M - $625M) | | Effective Tax Rate | 25.0 | % | Midpoint of 2026 management guidance (23% - 27%) | | RMI as % of Total Inventory | 75.0 | % | Historical average for Bunge | | Dividend per Share | 2.72 | USD | Based on recent quarterly run-rate | | WACC | 7.0 | % | Reflects low cost of debt and stable agribusiness beta | | Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5 | % | Mature global agricultural industry growth | ## Data Sources & Benchmarks * **SEC EDGAR:** Bunge Global SA (Ticker: BG) 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings. * **Investor Relations:** bunge.com/investors for earnings presentations and Viterra integration updates. * **Key Peers:** Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Ingredion (INGR), Darling Ingredients (DAR). * **Industry Data:** USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports for crop yields and global trade flows. * **Commodity Pricing:** Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures (the "crush spread"). ## Sources * Bunge Global SA 2025 Form 10-K and Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release (February 2026) * Bunge Global SA Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcripts and Presentations * Bunge / Viterra Merger Announcement and Closing Press Releases (July 2025) * USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) * TradingView and Investing.com financial summaries for Bunge Global SA --- ## Frequently asked questions ### What does Bunge Global SA do? Bunge Global SA is a premier global agribusiness and food company that connects farmers to consumers by sourcing, processing, and distributing agricultural commodities. The company primarily buys, stores, transports, and processes oilseeds and grains to produce protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial and consumer use. ### What are the primary revenue drivers for Bunge Global? Bunge Global's revenue is primarily driven by commodity volume throughput, which encompasses the sourcing, processing, and distribution of oilseeds and grains across its global network. Regional crush margins, particularly within its Soybean and Softseed Processing segments, also play a crucial role in determining the company's financial performance. ### What is Bunge Global's capital expenditure strategy? Bunge Global's capital expenditure strategy allocates roughly 40% to maintenance and 60% to growth initiatives. For 2026, the company has guided $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in capex, with a focus on expanding its oilseeds platform, building a new soy protein concentrate plant, and developing renewable fuel feedstock infrastructure. ### How does the Viterra acquisition impact Bunge Global's financial model and valuation? The transformational $10.6 billion Viterra acquisition, which closed in July 2025, significantly impacts Bunge Global's financial model by increasing total assets to $40 billion-$45 billion and boosting goodwill. Analysts' valuation models must now integrate Viterra's operations, focusing on its contribution to commodity volume throughput and regional crush margins. ### Is a downloadable financial model available for Bunge Global? No, a downloadable Excel model for Bunge Global is not available. The provided context describes a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool designed for analysts covering the company, rather than a publicly downloadable model. ### How does Bunge Global manage its working capital? Bunge Global maintains a positive working capital profile, heavily influenced by its Readily Marketable Inventories (RMI) of agricultural commodities. These highly liquid inventories, carried at fair value, are typically funded with short-term debt, reflecting the company's asset-heavy business model. [Interactive forecast calculator](https://finamodel.com/companies/bunge-global/forecast)