# Carnival (CCL) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Carnival. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/carnival/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 20825000000 | 46000000 | 5436000000 | 2990000000 |
| 2022 | 5595000000 | -9921000000 | -6624000000 | -10236000000 |
| 2023 | 1908000000 | -7716000000 | -4856000000 | -9501000000 |
| 2024 | 12168000000 | -6610000000 | -2104000000 | -6093000000 |
| 2025 | 21593000000 | 997000000 | 4326000000 | -74000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Carnival Corporation & plc do?

Carnival Corporation & plc is the world's largest leisure travel and cruise company, operating a portfolio of global brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger cruise tickets and onboard spending.

### How does Carnival generate its revenue?

Carnival generates revenue mainly from the sale of passenger cruise tickets and various onboard spending activities such as casino, beverage, spa, and shore excursions. Its North America and Australia Cruise Operations segment contributes approximately 65% of its total revenue.

### What is Carnival's capital expenditure strategy?

Carnival's business model is highly asset-heavy, requiring significant upfront capital expenditure to build cruise ships, which then generate steady cash flows over a 30-year useful life. Capex as a percentage of revenue is highly variable, ranging from 12-20%, depending on the ship delivery schedule, with growth capex focused on newbuilds.

### Why does Carnival have negative net working capital?

Carnival has a deeply negative net working capital profile because customers typically pay for cruises in advance, leading to substantial customer deposits. This provides a massive structural advantage, offering free financing for its operations.

### What are the key inputs for valuing Carnival Corporation & plc in a financial model?

Key inputs for valuing Carnival in a financial model include forecasting free cash flow generation, assessing the trajectory of post-pandemic debt deleveraging, and analyzing fleet capacity growth and passenger yield dynamics. The model also considers assumptions like a 0.9% revenue growth rate and a 4.78% tax rate.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Carnival Corporation & plc?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Carnival Corporation & plc is available for download. This model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and credit analysis framework, with a forecast horizon extending from FY2026 to FY2030.