# Carvana (CVNA) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Carvana. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/carvana/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 3940000000 | -988000000 | -280000000 | -115000000 |
| 2022 | 5587000000 | -968000000 | -332000000 | -171000000 |
| 2023 | 12814000000 | -3151000000 | -104000000 | -135000000 |
| 2024 | 13604000000 | -1836000000 | -2351000000 | -1587000000 |
| 2025 | 10771000000 | 716000000 | -80000000 | 450000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Carvana's business model for selling used cars?

Carvana operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars, offering a fully digital transaction experience. The company vertically integrates the used car lifecycle by sourcing, reconditioning at its facilities, and managing its own logistics network.

### What are Carvana's primary revenue streams?

Carvana generates the majority of its revenue from Retail Vehicle Sales, which typically account for 70-75% of its total. Additional revenue comes from Wholesale Vehicle Sales (15-20%) and Other Sales and Revenues, which are highly accretive to gross profit.

### What is the assumed capital expenditure percentage in Carvana's financial model?

The financial model for Carvana assumes a Capex_Pct_Revenue of 0.04244921070017265. Historically, Carvana's capex as a percentage of revenue has ranged from 1.5% to 3.0%, though it was heavily curtailed during the 2023 liquidity crisis.

### What is the purpose of the Carvana financial model?

The Carvana financial model projects the company's unit economics, cash flow generation, and debt service capacity. This analysis helps determine its equity valuation and credit viability as it scales towards its stated goal of three million annual retail units.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Carvana (CVNA)?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Carvana is available. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future financial performance.

### How does Carvana's working capital profile impact its cash flow?

Carvana's business requires significant inventory investment to drive growth, making working capital a use of cash during high-growth phases. While net working capital as a percentage of revenue is slightly positive to neutral, the company's Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) is a critical metric for managing depreciation risk on used cars.