# Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/chipotle-mexican-grill/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 5586369000 | 387720000 | 656736000 | 350158000 |
| 2022 | 5984634000 | 290495000 | 528698000 | 355766000 |
| 2023 | 7547061000 | 839606000 | 1059600000 | 652984000 |
| 2024 | 8634652000 | 844015000 | 1447229000 | 899101000 |
| 2025 | 9871649000 | 1222746000 | 1877207000 | 1228737000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### How does Chipotle Mexican Grill's business model differ from other fast-food chains?

Chipotle primarily owns and operates nearly all its fast-casual restaurant locations, focusing on responsibly sourced ingredients. Unlike many peers, it does not rely on a franchise model, making it an asset-heavy retail operator.

### What are the primary drivers of Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth?

Chipotle's revenue is primarily driven by new restaurant openings, targeting 315 to 370 per year, and comparable restaurant sales. Digital sales, representing approximately 36.7% of total revenue in 2025, are also a significant growth lever.

### What is Chipotle Mexican Grill's capital expenditure strategy?

Chipotle's capital expenditure is heavily skewed towards growth capex, making up 70% to 80% of total capex, to fund the opening of over 300 new restaurants annually. A major program involves building "Chipotlanes" for digital orders, which offer higher margins.

### What is the assumed revenue growth rate for Chipotle Mexican Grill in financial models?

The financial model assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 15.3% for Chipotle Mexican Grill. This growth is influenced by new store openings and comparable restaurant sales, despite potential consumer pushback on pricing.

### How does Chipotle Mexican Grill's working capital profile impact its financial model?

Chipotle has a structurally negative net working capital profile, as it collects cash from customers immediately before paying suppliers. This provides a continuous source of float that can help fund new store growth without external financing.

### What is the purpose of the downloadable financial model for Chipotle Mexican Grill?

The downloadable Excel model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and unit-economic forecast for analysts. It helps determine whether to buy, hold, or sell shares of this high-growth, company-operated restaurant chain.