# ConocoPhillips (COP) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for ConocoPhillips. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/conocophillips/forecast
- Industry: Energy
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 32567000000 | 4468000000 | 15614000000 | 7189000000 |
| 2022 | 13662000000 | 87000000 | 2381000000 | -2701000000 |
| 2023 | 34590000000 |  -  | 19920000000 | 8079000000 |
| 2024 | 61049000000 |  -  | 35732000000 | 18680000000 |
| 2025 | 48522000000 |  -  | 24558000000 | 10957000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does ConocoPhillips do?

ConocoPhillips is the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company, focused exclusively on the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry. It explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and other liquids globally across segments like the Lower 48, Alaska, and Canada.

### What drives ConocoPhillips' revenue?

ConocoPhillips' revenue is primarily driven by its production volumes and the realized commodity prices across its five geographic segments. Key drivers include rig count and completion efficiency in the Permian Basin, and major projects such as the Willow project in Alaska, which is poised for future growth.

### What is ConocoPhillips' capital expenditure strategy?

ConocoPhillips typically allocates its capital expenditure with approximately 60% dedicated to maintenance to hold production flat and 40% for growth initiatives. Major capital programs include the $8 billion Willow project in Alaska and Qatar LNG expansions, with absolute capex guided to approximately $12.0 billion for 2026.

### How does the ConocoPhillips financial model assist in equity valuation?

The ConocoPhillips financial model provides a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and cash flow forecasting. It enables analysts to assess the accretion of recent acquisitions, evaluate production growth trajectories, and stress-test free cash flow generation under various commodity price scenarios.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for ConocoPhillips?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for ConocoPhillips is available. This general corporate model offers a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's financial projections.

### What is ConocoPhillips' core business model?

ConocoPhillips operates an asset-heavy and commodity-price driven business model, exclusively focused on upstream oil and gas exploration and production. The company relies on continuous capital reinvestment to offset natural reservoir declines and maintains a premier competitive position due to its massive scale and strong balance sheet.