# Dexcom (DXCM) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Dexcom. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/dexcom/forecast
- Industry: Healthcare
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 1476000000 | 134500000 | 191000000 | 101100000 |
| 2022 | 1926700000 | 276600000 | 366600000 | 549700000 |
| 2023 | 2448500000 | 53300000 | 367800000 | 216900000 |
| 2024 | 2909800000 | 304700000 | 547100000 | 341200000 |
| 2025 | 3622300000 | 511900000 | 783700000 | 541500000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Dexcom do and what is its primary business model?

Dexcom, Inc. develops and commercializes continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for people with diabetes, providing real-time glucose readings. Its business model is primarily "razor/razorblade," where durable hardware sales are supplemented by the vast majority of revenue coming from recurring consumable sensor sales.

### What are the main drivers of Dexcom's revenue growth?

Dexcom's revenue growth is driven by increasing CGM market penetration, international expansion into regions like Asia-Pacific, and new product launches such as the Stelo over-the-counter CGM and the G7 15-day sensor. Sensor and other revenue accounts for over 90% of total revenue, indicating the importance of recurring sales.

### What is Dexcom's historical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?

Historically, Dexcom's capital expenditure has ranged from 4-7% of revenue, with peaks during significant facility constructions like the Malaysia manufacturing site. Approximately 80% of this capex is allocated to growth initiatives, such as new automated manufacturing lines, rather than just maintenance.

### What are the key cost assumptions in a financial model for Dexcom?

Key cost assumptions include COGS at approximately 34.78% of revenue, R&D at about 17.79% of revenue, and SGA at roughly 33.50% of revenue. These percentages reflect the company's investment in product development and market expansion.

### How does Dexcom's working capital profile impact its free cash flow generation?

Dexcom maintains a positive net working capital, which requires ongoing investment as the company expands globally. Its Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) is kept high at 90-110 days to ensure global supply chain resilience, influencing its cash conversion cycle.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Dexcom (DXCM) and what is its forecast horizon?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Dexcom (DXCM) is available for download, providing a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool. The model offers a forecast horizon from FY2026 through FY2030.