# Dollar Tree (DLTR) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Dollar Tree. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/dollar-tree/forecast
- Industry: Staples
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 23610800000 | 835000000 | 1907600000 | 827000000 |
| 2022 | 25508400000 | 1817500000 | 2574500000 | 1341900000 |
| 2023 | 26309800000 | 410300000 | 2527400000 | 1327900000 |
| 2024 | 15405700000 |  -  | 2464600000 | 1615400000 |
| 2025 | 16770300000 |  -  | 2175000000 | -998400000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Dollar Tree's core business model after the Family Dollar divestiture?

Dollar Tree operates as a leading North American discount variety store chain, offering a wide range of everyday merchandise, seasonal goods, and party supplies. Following the July 2025 sale of Family Dollar, it now functions as a single-segment enterprise focused on its Dollar Tree brand, implementing a multi-price strategy across its extensive physical footprint.

### How does Dollar Tree generate revenue, and what drives its sales growth?

Dollar Tree generates revenue through the sale of merchandise in its over 9,200 brick-and-mortar stores across the United States and Canada. Sales growth is primarily driven by new store openings, the conversion of existing stores to the 'Dollar Tree 3.0' multi-price format, and continuous optimization of its supply chain.

### What is Dollar Tree's capital expenditure strategy, and what percentage of revenue does it represent?

Dollar Tree's capital expenditure (Capex) is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5% of its revenue. Approximately 60% of this Capex is allocated to growth initiatives such as new store openings and multi-price format conversions, while the remaining 40% covers maintenance for IT, supply chain, and store refreshes.

### What are the key cost assumptions in Dollar Tree's financial model?

Key cost assumptions in Dollar Tree's financial model include Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) at approximately 67.4% of revenue and Selling, General & Administrative (SGA) expenses at about 23.6% of revenue. These figures reflect the significant operational costs inherent in its asset-heavy retail business model.

### What is the purpose of the Dollar Tree financial model, and what does it assess?

The Dollar Tree financial model is designed to evaluate the standalone equity valuation and cash flow generation capacity of the company. It allows an equity analyst to assess the earnings power and margin expansion potential of the core 'Dollar Tree 3.0' multi-price strategy following the divestiture of Family Dollar.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Dollar Tree, and what is its forecast horizon?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Dollar Tree is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon spanning from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030, offering a comprehensive outlook on the company's future financial performance.