# Duke Energy (DUK) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Duke Energy. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/duke-energy/forecast
- Industry: Utilities
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 24348000000 | -2913000000 | 10885000000 | 3748000000 |
| 2022 | 23253000000 | -1051000000 | 10057000000 | 1377000000 |
| 2023 | 24486000000 | -1425000000 | 11163000000 | 3908000000 |
| 2024 | 28675000000 | -5440000000 | 11855000000 | 2550000000 |
| 2025 | 28674000000 | -2726000000 | 13154000000 | 2841000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Duke Energy's primary business model?

Duke Energy operates as a regulated energy holding company, providing electricity to 8.7 million customers and natural gas to 1.7 million customers across several states. Its business model is purely regulated, meaning earnings are driven by the allowed return on its capital investments (rate base) as determined by state utility commissions.

### How does Duke Energy generate its revenue?

Duke Energy generates approximately 92% of its total revenue from its Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I) segment, which encompasses regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution. The remaining 8% of revenue comes from its Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I) segment, covering local natural gas distribution.

### What are the key capital expenditure plans for Duke Energy?

Duke Energy is currently managing a historic $103 billion five-year capital plan from 2026-2030, making it the largest regulated utility by capital plan in the US. Approximately 65% of this investment is dedicated to grid infrastructure and new power generation, driven by grid modernization, energy transition, and massive data center load growth.

### What are some top financial model assumptions for Duke Energy's operations?

Key assumptions in Duke Energy's financial model include a revenue growth rate of approximately 4.17% and COGS as a percentage of revenue at 55%. Additionally, SG&A is modeled at 15% of revenue, and depreciation and amortization is assumed to be around 21.9% of revenue.

### What is the main objective of the Duke Energy financial model?

The Duke Energy financial model evaluates the company's equity valuation and credit profile. Its purpose is to determine if the massive $103 billion capital expenditure program and pending rate cases will generate sufficient rate base growth to support its dividend and target 5-7% EPS growth without breaching rating agency leverage thresholds.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Duke Energy?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Duke Energy is available. This model covers a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030 and includes detailed assumptions for analyzing the company's financial performance and valuation.