# Estée Lauder Companies (EL) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Estée Lauder Companies. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/est-e-lauder-companies/forecast
- Industry: Staples
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 14863000000 | 1773000000 | 2870000000 | 1794000000 |
| 2022 | 14294000000 | 1657000000 | 1217000000 | 696000000 |
| 2023 | 16215000000 | 2994000000 | 3269000000 | 2875000000 |
| 2024 | 17737000000 | 2000000000 | 3897000000 | 2408000000 |
| 2025 | 15910000000 | 728000000 | 2253000000 | 1010000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### How does Estée Lauder generate its revenue across different product segments?

Estée Lauder generates revenue primarily from Skin Care (~45%), Makeup (~28%), Fragrance (~22%), and Hair Care (~5%) segments. Revenue growth for these segments is driven by volume and price/mix realization, with significant exposure to Asia Travel Retail and strong seasonality in fiscal Q2 due to holiday gifting.

### What are the key revenue growth assumptions in the financial model for Estée Lauder Companies?

The financial model for Estée Lauder Companies assumes a Revenue_Growth of approximately 1.7%. This forecast considers the company's Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) and its aim to restore historical double-digit operating margins.

### What is the assumed capital expenditure percentage of revenue in the Estée Lauder financial model?

The financial model for Estée Lauder Companies assumes Capex_Pct_Revenue to be approximately 5.1%. This capital expenditure is divided into roughly 40% for maintenance and 60% for growth, focusing on supply chain optimization and digital/e-commerce platform enhancements.

### What is the primary objective of the Estée Lauder Companies financial model?

The model's primary objective is to evaluate whether The Estée Lauder Companies' Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) will successfully restore historical double-digit operating margins. It also assesses if the plan can drive sufficient free cash flow to justify an equity investment following recent severe earnings compression.

### Is an Excel financial model available for download for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Estée Lauder Companies (EL) is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing users to analyze the company's projected financials and key assumptions.