# HCA Healthcare (HCA) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for HCA Healthcare. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/hca-healthcare/forecast
- Industry: Healthcare
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 51336000000 | 3444000000 | 7840000000 | 3505000000 |
| 2022 | 51533000000 | 6397000000 | 8151000000 | 3754000000 |
| 2023 | 58752000000 | 5382000000 | 12686000000 | 6956000000 |
| 2024 | 60233000000 | 4127000000 | 11549000000 | 5643000000 |
| 2025 | 64968000000 | 4687000000 | 10783000000 | 5242000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is HCA Healthcare's primary business model?

HCA Healthcare operates as the largest for-profit provider of healthcare facilities in the United States, managing 190 hospitals and approximately 2,400 ambulatory sites. The company generates revenue through inpatient and outpatient services, compensated by various payers including Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurers.

### How does HCA Healthcare generate its revenue?

HCA Healthcare's consolidated revenue is primarily driven by patient volumes and the acuity of services provided across its facilities. The company leverages its local market density and scale to achieve operational efficiencies and negotiate favorable reimbursement rates with payers.

### What are the key capital expenditure assumptions for HCA Healthcare's financial model?

The financial model assumes HCA Healthcare's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is approximately 6.86%, aligning with its asset-heavy business model. Roughly 60% of this capex is allocated to growth initiatives such as new bed capacity and ambulatory centers, with the remainder for maintenance.

### What is the assumed revenue growth rate for HCA Healthcare in financial projections?

In the financial model, HCA Healthcare's revenue growth is assumed to be approximately 6.06%. This projection considers the company's ability to sustain volume-driven growth and manage margin expansion amidst factors like changing payer mixes and wage inflation.

### What are important considerations for valuing HCA Healthcare using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model?

Key considerations for a DCF model include assessing the sustainability of HCA Healthcare's volume-driven growth and margin expansion, given its capital-intensive operations. Analysts must also account for its significant goodwill and intangibles, which stem from historical leveraged buyouts and continuous bolt-on acquisitions.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for HCA Healthcare?

Yes, an Excel financial model for HCA Healthcare is available for download, providing projections for the fiscal years 2026 through 2030. This model allows analysts to evaluate the company's equity valuation and assess its credit profile.