# Lilly (Eli) (LLY) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Lilly (Eli). Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/lilly-eli/forecast
- Industry: Healthcare
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 22319500000 |  -  | 6498500000 | 8318400000 |
| 2022 | 24539800000 |  -  | 8553800000 | 6193700000 |
| 2023 | 28318400000 |  -  | 7703100000 | 5581700000 |
| 2024 | 28541400000 |  -  | 8328900000 | 6244800000 |
| 2025 | 34124000000 |  -  | 8081000000 | 5240000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Eli Lilly (LLY) do?

Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human medicines. It primarily focuses on cardiometabolic diseases, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, operating as an asset-heavy innovator.

### What are the primary revenue drivers for Eli Lilly?

Eli Lilly's revenue is predominantly driven by its cardiometabolic franchise, including Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, and Trulicity, which accounts for 60-65% of total revenue. Oncology, immunology, and neuroscience therapeutic areas also contribute significantly to its sales.

### Why is Eli Lilly's capital expenditure currently so high?

Eli Lilly's capital expenditure is currently 15-20% of revenue, significantly higher than its historical 5-8%. Over 80% of this spending is growth capex, specifically dedicated to new manufacturing facilities for its incretin therapies like Mounjaro and Zepbound to meet unprecedented demand.

### What are the key cost assumptions in Eli Lilly's financial model?

Key cost assumptions in Eli Lilly's financial model include COGS at approximately 22.66% of revenue, R&D at about 24.71% of revenue, and SGA at roughly 23.95% of revenue. These reflect the company's significant investment in research and development and its asset-heavy manufacturing strategy.

### What is the purpose of the Eli Lilly financial model?

The Eli Lilly financial model provides a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and scenario planning for LLY. It enables analysts to forecast the rapid scale-up of its incretin franchise, assess the margin impact of manufacturing investments, and determine a sum-of-the-parts or discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Eli Lilly (LLY)?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Eli Lilly (LLY) is available for download. This model offers a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future financial performance and valuation.