# Lumentum (LITE) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Lumentum. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/lumentum/forecast
- Industry: Technology
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 1565300000 | 164100000 | 81300000 | -36400000 |
| 2022 | 1678600000 | 438300000 | 317400000 | 135500000 |
| 2023 | 1742800000 | 653900000 | 618400000 | 397300000 |
| 2024 | 1712600000 | 368100000 | 384900000 | 198900000 |
| 2025 | 1767000000 | 51300000 | -9100000 | -131600000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Lumentum do?

Lumentum is a market-leading designer and manufacturer of innovative optical and photonic products. These products are crucial for enabling optical networking and commercial laser applications worldwide, serving a global customer base.

### What are Lumentum's primary revenue drivers?

Lumentum's revenue is predominantly driven by its Cloud & Networking segment, which accounts for approximately 85% of its FY2025 revenue and is experiencing hyper-growth due to AI demand. The company also generates revenue from its Industrial Tech business, though this segment faces cyclical headwinds.

### How does Lumentum's capital expenditure strategy impact its financial outlook?

Lumentum's capital expenditure, typically ranging from 8-14% of revenue, is currently heavily skewed towards growth investments, with about 70% allocated to expansion. This includes significant programs like expanding indium phosphide wafer fab capacity and building out the Thailand transceiver manufacturing facility, which are key uses of cash.

### What are the key financial assumptions used in the Lumentum model?

The Lumentum financial model uses key assumptions such as a revenue growth rate of approximately 3.08% and COGS as about 58.54% of revenue. Other significant assumptions include R&D at 13.25% of revenue, SGA at 15.18% of revenue, and a tax rate of 17.94%.

### What is the significance of Lumentum's net working capital in its valuation?

Lumentum's net working capital is positive and acts as a significant use of cash, particularly during periods of high growth. This is influenced by a high Days Inventory Outstanding (120-150 days) due to long fab cycle times for indium phosphide, which impacts cash flow projections.

### Is there an Excel financial model available for Lumentum (LITE)?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Lumentum (LITE) is available for download. This model offers a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and scenario planning, with a forecast horizon that extends from FY2026 through FY2030.