# Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Marathon Petroleum. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/marathon-petroleum/forecast
- Industry: Energy
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 111148000000 | 4631000000 | 7687000000 | 2637000000 |
| 2022 | 69779000000 | -368000000 | -8872000000 | -9826000000 |
| 2023 | 119983000000 | 2896000000 | 7664000000 | 9738000000 |
| 2024 | 177453000000 | 13941000000 | 24684000000 | 14516000000 |
| 2025 | 148379000000 | 12227000000 | 17821000000 | 9681000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) do?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading independent downstream energy company operating primarily in the United States. It refines crude oil into transportation fuels and other products, and operates a massive logistics network through its master limited partnership, MPLX LP. The company's segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and a smaller Renewable Diesel segment.

### How does Marathon Petroleum generate its revenue?

Marathon Petroleum primarily generates revenue from its Refining & Marketing segment, which accounts for approximately 90% of consolidated revenue by refining crude oil. The Midstream segment, operated through MPLX LP, contributes about 10% of gross revenue through stable, fee-based cash flows. Revenue in the Refining & Marketing segment is highly cyclical and influenced by commodity prices and crack spreads.

### What are Marathon Petroleum's typical capital expenditure levels?

Marathon Petroleum's consolidated capital expenditures typically run between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion annually. MPC standalone capex is heavily weighted toward maintenance and regulatory compliance, while MPLX capex is growth-oriented to expand natural gas and NGL infrastructure. The business model is extremely asset-heavy, requiring significant ongoing investment.

### What is a key revenue growth assumption in Marathon Petroleum's financial model?

A key assumption in Marathon Petroleum's financial model is a Revenue Growth rate of approximately 7.49%. This forecast helps project future consolidated cash flows and supports the sum-of-the-parts equity valuation. The model considers various commodity price and crack spread scenarios to assess the company's financial capacity.

### What is the purpose of the downloadable Marathon Petroleum financial model?

The downloadable financial model forecasts Marathon Petroleum Corporation's consolidated cash flows and provides a sum-of-the-parts equity valuation. Its primary purpose is to determine the company's capacity for share repurchases and dividend growth. The model allows for analysis across various commodity price and crack spread scenarios.

### What are the main components of Marathon Petroleum's balance sheet?

Marathon Petroleum's balance sheet shows total assets between $85 billion and $90 billion, primarily consisting of Property, Plant & Equipment (refineries, pipelines, terminals) and Inventories. Goodwill and intangibles also represent a moderate portion, largely from past acquisitions. Net working capital is highly volatile and sensitive to crude oil prices.