# Marriott International (MAR) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Marriott International. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/marriott-international/forecast
- Industry: Consumer
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 20972000000 | 1032000000 | 2146000000 | 1273000000 |
| 2022 | 10571000000 | 1504000000 | 406000000 | -267000000 |
| 2023 | 13857000000 | 994000000 | 1888000000 | 1099000000 |
| 2024 | 20773000000 | 2031000000 | 3576000000 | 2358000000 |
| 2025 | 23713000000 | 2718000000 | 3986000000 | 3083000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Marriott International's primary business model?

Marriott International operates as the world's largest hotel company, primarily employing an asset-light business model. It generates revenue through franchising, managing, and licensing over 9,300 properties globally, rather than owning most physical hotels.

### How does Marriott International generate its revenue?

Marriott's revenue is primarily fee-based, derived from franchise fees, management fees, and its Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program. This asset-light approach insulates the company from direct real estate risk while providing significant operating leverage.

### What is Marriott International's capital expenditure strategy?

Marriott's capital expenditure is heavily skewed towards growth, representing approximately 3-4% of total revenue annually. This includes "key money" for securing long-term franchise contracts and significant investment in technology systems transformation.

### Why is Marriott International's net working capital structurally negative?

Marriott's net working capital is structurally negative because it collects cash upfront for loyalty points sold to credit card partners. This creates a substantial float of interest-free capital, recorded as deferred revenue on its balance sheet.

### What is the purpose of the Marriott International financial model?

The financial model forecasts Marriott International's fee-driven cash flows and capital return capacity. Its main purpose is to determine the intrinsic equity valuation for investors assessing the company's asset-light growth strategy.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Marriott International?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Marriott International is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, detailing key assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and capital expenditures.