# Merck & Co. (MRK) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Merck & Co.. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/merck/forecast
- Industry: Healthcare
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 39121000000 |  -  | 8786000000 | 9843000000 |
| 2022 | 41518000000 |  -  | 7532000000 | 7067000000 |
| 2023 | 48704000000 |  -  | 15457000000 | 13049000000 |
| 2024 | 59283000000 | 14707000000 | 18268000000 | 14519000000 |
| 2025 | 60115000000 | 9143000000 | 3717000000 | 365000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Merck & Co. do?

Merck & Co. is a global healthcare company that discovers, develops, and provides innovative prescription medicines, biologic therapies, vaccines, and animal health products. It operates a highly research-intensive business model focused on oncology, cardiometabolic diseases, and infectious diseases.

### What are Merck's primary revenue sources?

Merck's primary revenue comes from its Pharmaceutical segment, heavily dominated by the oncology drug Keytruda and the HPV vaccine Gardasil, which accounts for approximately 89% of total revenue. The Animal Health segment contributes about 10% of revenue, with other revenues making up the remainder.

### How does the financial model address the Keytruda loss of exclusivity?

The financial model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool to assess how Merck & Co. will navigate the impending 2028 loss of exclusivity for its flagship oncology drug Keytruda. It evaluates whether its late-stage pipeline and recent acquisitions can replace the anticipated revenue decline.

### What is a key assumption for Merck's revenue growth in the financial model?

A key assumption for Merck's revenue growth in the financial model is approximately 11.34%. This forecast extends over a horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, reflecting anticipated performance and strategic initiatives.

### How does Merck & Co. manage its capital expenditures?

Merck's capital expenditure typically ranges from 4% to 6% of revenue, amounting to approximately $4 billion annually. This spending is heavily skewed towards growth capex, particularly for building out biologic and vaccine manufacturing capacity.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Merck & Co.?

Yes, a comprehensive Excel financial model for Merck & Co. is available for download. This model provides an equity valuation and scenario planning tool to analyze the company's future financial performance and key assumptions.