# Microsoft (MSFT) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Microsoft. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/microsoft/forecast
- Industry: Technology
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 125843000000 | 38260000000 | 52659000000 | 39240000000 |
| 2022 | 143015000000 | 45234000000 | 63659000000 | 44281000000 |
| 2023 | 168088000000 | 56118000000 | 79216000000 | 61271000000 |
| 2024 | 198270000000 | 65149000000 | 95983000000 | 72738000000 |
| 2025 | 211915000000 | 59475000000 | 99523000000 | 72361000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Microsoft's core business model and key revenue segments?

Microsoft operates a hybrid business model, combining high-margin recurring software subscriptions, consumption-based cloud services, and lower-margin hardware and gaming sales. Its primary revenue segments include Intelligent Cloud, Productivity and Business Processes, and More Personal Computing.

### How does Microsoft generate revenue, and what are its primary growth drivers?

Microsoft generates revenue through diverse offerings like Azure cloud services, Office subscriptions, LinkedIn, Windows, Xbox, and search advertising. Key growth drivers include AI monetization, the scaling of cloud infrastructure, and the integration of acquisitions like Activision Blizzard.

### What are the key capital expenditure assumptions in Microsoft's financial model, and why are they significant?

Capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue for Microsoft is assumed to be trending sharply upward, ranging from 12% to 20%. This significant investment is primarily driven by growth capex, estimated at 80%, for the unprecedented build-out of AI supercomputers and global datacenter expansion to support Azure AI workloads.

### What is the purpose of the Microsoft financial model, and what valuation method does it use?

The Microsoft financial model provides a comprehensive 3-statement forecast to determine the company's intrinsic equity value. It utilizes a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation to help analysts assess the financial impact of strategic initiatives like AI monetization and cloud infrastructure scaling.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Microsoft (MSFT) to perform my own analysis?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Microsoft (MSFT) is available. This general corporate model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for detailed financial analysis.

### How does Microsoft's working capital profile impact its cash flow generation?

Microsoft operates with negative net working capital, primarily due to massive unearned (deferred) revenue balances from its software subscriptions. This structural characteristic provides a significant cash flow advantage for the company.