# Moderna (MRNA) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Moderna. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/moderna/forecast
- Industry: Healthcare
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 60000000 | -491000000 | -515000000 | -514000000 |
| 2022 | 803000000 | 1959000000 | -732000000 | -747000000 |
| 2023 | 18471000000 | 13336000000 | 13913000000 | 12202000000 |
| 2024 | 19263000000 | 4581000000 | 9768000000 | 8362000000 |
| 2025 | 6848000000 | -3825000000 | -3622000000 | -4714000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Moderna's primary business focus?

Moderna is a pioneering biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. While historically known for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, the company is currently transitioning into a broader respiratory and oncology business.

### What are the main revenue streams for Moderna?

Moderna's revenue streams primarily consist of Product Sales, which include its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax) and the newly launched RSV vaccine (mRESVIA). The company also generates revenue from Grant and Collaboration agreements.

### How does Moderna's capital expenditure strategy impact its financial model?

Moderna's capital expenditure is predominantly growth-oriented, focusing on significant facility build-outs like the Norwood campus and new international manufacturing sites. The financial model assumes Capex as a percentage of revenue at approximately 15.15%, reflecting these substantial investments despite current lower revenue levels.

### What is the main objective of the Moderna financial model?

The primary objective of the Moderna financial model is to evaluate the company's cash runway and equity valuation. It aims to determine if Moderna can successfully achieve its stated 2028 cash-flow breakeven target without requiring highly dilutive equity financing.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Moderna?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Moderna is available. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 through FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future financial performance.

### What are the key assumptions regarding Moderna's operating expenses in the financial model?

The financial model incorporates key assumptions for operating expenses, such as Research & Development (R&D) at 35% of revenue and Selling, General & Administrative (SGA) expenses at approximately 47.66% of revenue. These percentages reflect Moderna's ongoing investment in pipeline development and market presence.