# NextEra Energy (NEE) Financial Model Free Excel 3-statement financial model and company analysis for NextEra Energy. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/nextera-energy - Industry: Utilities - Downloadable model: Yes - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/company-models/NEE.xlsx ## Model Purpose This model projects NextEra Energy's consolidated cash flows and earnings to determine equity valuation and assess credit metrics, balancing the regulated rate base growth of Florida Power & Light with the unregulated renewable energy project pipeline of NextEra Energy Resources. ## Company Overview NextEra Energy is a leading North American clean energy company and the parent of Florida Power & Light, the largest electric utility in the United States, and NextEra Energy Resources, a massive competitive clean energy developer. The business operates through two primary segments: Florida Power & Light (FPL), which contributes approximately 65 to 70 percent of consolidated revenue, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), which contributes approximately 30 to 35 percent. FPL operates exclusively within Florida, while NEER develops and operates projects across the United States and Canada. The business model is highly asset intensive, combining a traditional regulated utility framework at FPL with an unregulated, long term contract driven renewable power development model at NEER. NextEra holds a dominant competitive position as the world's largest generator of renewable energy from the wind and sun, alongside its status as the largest US utility by retail electricity produced and sold. Recent major events include the full integration of Gulf Power into FPL, massive expansion of the renewable backlog reaching 29.5 gigawatts in 2025, and structural changes and charges related to its yieldco vehicle, XPLR Infrastructure (formerly NextEra Energy Partners). ## Revenue Deep Dive ### Florida Power & Light (FPL) * Segment name: FPL * Revenue driver formula: Average Customer Accounts x Average Usage per Customer x Average Rate per kWh (Base Rate plus Cost Recovery Clauses) * Historical growth rate: 5 to 8 percent CAGR * Key growth levers and headwinds: Florida population migration driving customer account growth, weather patterns impacting cooling degree days, Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC) rate case outcomes, and natural gas price pass throughs. * Pricing dynamics: Heavily regulated by the FPSC. Base rates are fixed via multi year settlements, while fuel costs are passed directly through to customers without a markup. * Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time as electricity is delivered. Unbilled revenues are accrued at month end based on estimated usage since the last meter reading. * Seasonality: The third quarter is historically the strongest due to high summer cooling demand in Florida, driving peak electricity usage. ### NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) * Segment name: NEER * Revenue driver formula: Operational Gigawatts x Capacity Factor x Average Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Price plus Tax Credit Monetisation * Historical growth rate: 10 to 15 percent CAGR, though highly dependent on project completion timing. * Key growth levers and headwinds: Corporate demand for green energy, data centre power demand, supply chain constraints for solar panels and transformers, and interconnection queue delays. * Pricing dynamics: Driven by long term contractual PPAs (typically 15 to 20 years) which provide stable cash flows, with a small portion of merchant market exposure. * Revenue recognition notes: Energy sales are recognised upon delivery. There is significant complexity involving tax equity partnerships and the recognition of production tax credits (PTCs). * Seasonality: The first and fourth quarters are typically stronger for wind generation, while the second and third quarters are stronger for solar generation. ## Cost Structure ### Variable Costs / COGS * Line-by-line breakdown: Fuel, purchased power, and interchange expenses. * Gross margin range: Utilities are not typically evaluated on a gross margin basis. Fuel costs are largely a pass through for FPL, meaning revenue and fuel costs move together without impacting gross profit dollars. * Key input costs and commodity exposures: Natural gas and nuclear fuel. * How COGS scales with revenue: Scales linearly with generation volume but is highly volatile based on commodity prices, which are passed through to customers via regulatory recovery clauses. ### Operating Expenses * R&D: Negligible for this business model. * SG&A / O&M: Operations and Maintenance (O&M) is the primary controllable cost. It covers labour, grid maintenance, and generation asset upkeep. It typically grows at or slightly below inflation due to operational efficiencies. * Depreciation & Amortisation: Massive expense, typically 12 to 15 percent of revenue, due to the highly capital intensive nature of utility and renewable assets. Almost entirely tangible depreciation. * Stock-Based Compensation: Minimal as a percentage of revenue compared to technology companies. * Restructuring / one-time charges: Occasional impairment charges related to equity method investments or specific project cancellations, such as the recent charges related to XPLR Infrastructure. ### Margin Profile * EBITDA margin: 45 to 55 percent, though this is heavily distorted by fuel pass throughs. * Operating margin: 25 to 35 percent. * Net margin: 20 to 25 percent. * Margin trend: Expanding slightly as the generation mix shifts towards zero fuel renewable assets (wind and solar) which require high upfront capital expenditures but have near zero marginal operating costs. * Segment-level margins: FPL margins are highly stable and regulated, while NEER margins fluctuate based on project completion timelines and tax credit recognition. ## Balance Sheet Structure * Total assets: Approximately $170 to $180 billion. * Key asset categories: Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E) makes up the vast majority of the balance sheet (approximately $120 to $130 billion net). Regulatory assets are also significant. * Goodwill & intangibles: Minimal relative to total assets, mostly related to historical acquisitions like Gulf Power. * Working capital profile: * Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 30 to 40 days. * Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): 20 to 30 days (primarily fuel inventory). * Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 30 to 45 days. * Net working capital as % of revenue: Typically negative. * Is working capital positive or negative?: Negative. The company uses customer deposits and payables to fund daily operations, which is standard for large utilities. * PP&E: Consists of generation facilities (nuclear, natural gas, wind, solar), transmission lines, and distribution networks. Useful lives range from 10 years for certain technology to 40 to 60 years for nuclear plants and transmission infrastructure. * Right-of-use assets: Material, but dwarfed by owned PP&E. ## Capital Expenditure & Investment * Capex as % of revenue: 40 to 60 percent, reflecting extreme capital intensity. * Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Approximately 20 percent maintenance and 80 percent growth. * Major capex programmes underway: A $40 to $45 billion capital plan over a four year period, focused on FPL solar base rate adjustments, grid hardening, and building out NEER's 29.5 gigawatt renewable backlog. * Capitalised software: Immaterial compared to hard asset capital expenditures. * M&A pattern: Historically a bolt on acquirer (with Gulf Power being a rare large utility acquisition). Currently focused on organic development and asset recycling (selling stakes in operational assets to fund new development). * Typical acquisition multiple paid: Not applicable for current strategy, which is heavily weighted towards organic greenfield development. ## Debt & Capital Structure * Total debt: Approximately $70 to $80 billion. * Debt/EBITDA ratio: 4.5x to 5.5x. * Credit rating: Baa1 / A minus (Holdco versus Opco ratings differ). * Key debt instruments: First mortgage bonds at FPL, senior unsecured notes, commercial paper, and project level non recourse debt at NEER. * Maturity profile: Laddered, but the company is highly reliant on continuous access to debt markets to fund its massive capital expenditure programme. * Interest rate profile: Mostly fixed, but new issuances are exposed to current higher interest rates. * Covenants: Standard debt to capitalisation limits. * Share repurchase programme: Minimal. The company frequently issues equity (often via equity units) to fund growth rather than buying shares back. * Dividend policy: Approximately 60 to 65 percent payout ratio based on adjusted earnings, with management targeting roughly 10 percent annual growth. Yield is typically 2.5 to 3.5 percent. ## Cash Flow Characteristics * Operating cash flow conversion: Operating cash flow is strong but consistently lower than capital expenditures. * Free cash flow margin: Consistently negative due to the massive growth capital expenditure programme. * Major non-cash items: Depreciation, deferred income taxes, and equity in earnings of equity method investees. * Working capital cash flow impact: Minor fluctuations, mostly driven by fuel cost under recoveries or over recoveries (regulatory assets and liabilities). * Capex intensity: Extremely high. The company relies heavily on capital markets (debt and equity issuances) to fund the gap between operating cash flow and capital expenditures. * Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate: The cash tax rate is near zero or negative (meaning the company receives cash refunds) due to massive production tax credits and investment tax credits from renewable development, combined with accelerated depreciation. ## Sheet Structure 1. **Assumptions**: Hardcoded drivers for FPL (customer growth, rate base, allowed ROE) and NEER (gigawatt additions, PPA pricing, tax credits). 2. **FPL_Revenue**: Build up of retail base revenues, fuel cost recovery, and franchise fees based on customer accounts and usage. 3. **NEER_Revenue**: Build up of clean energy sales, capacity payments, and project development fees based on operational gigawatts. 4. **Consolidated_IS**: Aggregation of segments, O&M, depreciation, interest expense, and tax to reach GAAP Net Income and Adjusted Earnings. 5. **Rate_Base_Model**: FPL specific schedule tracking plant in service, accumulated depreciation, and allowed return on equity. 6. **Project_Backlog**: NEER specific schedule tracking gigawatts in operation, under construction, and planned additions. 7. **Capex_and_Depreciation**: PP&E roll forward by segment, calculating tangible depreciation. 8. **Working_Capital**: Standard current asset and liability schedules, plus utility specific regulatory assets and liabilities. 9. **Debt_Schedule**: Tranche by tranche debt roll forward, differentiating between FPL first mortgage bonds and NEER project debt. 10. **Tax_and_Credits**: Schedule tracking investment tax credits (ITCs), production tax credits (PTCs), and deferred tax liabilities. 11. **Consolidated_BS**: Balancing balance sheet ensuring assets equal liabilities plus equity. 12. **Consolidated_CFS**: Three statement cash flow bridging net income to the change in cash, highlighting the massive financing needs. 13. **Valuation**: Sum of the parts (SOTP) model, valuing FPL using a dividend discount model or regulated asset base multiple, and NEER using a discounted cash flow approach. ## Key Financial Relationships 1. "FPL Retail Base Revenue = Average Customer Accounts x Average Usage per Customer x Base Rate per kWh" 2. "FPL Fuel Recovery Revenue = Total Retail kWh Sold x Fuel Cost per kWh" 3. "FPL Net Income = Average Rate Base x Equity Portion of Capital Structure x Allowed ROE" 4. "NEER Operating Revenue = Average Operational GW x Capacity Factor x 8,760 hours x Average PPA Price per MWh" 5. "NEER Tax Credits = Wind Generation MWh x PTC rate per MWh + Solar Capex x ITC percentage" 6. "Consolidated O&M = FPL O&M + NEER O&M" 7. "Consolidated Depreciation = Prior Year PP&E x Blended Depreciation Rate" 8. "FPL Interest Expense = FPL Average Debt Balance x FPL Weighted Average Interest Rate" 9. "NEER Interest Expense = NEER Average Debt Balance x NEER Weighted Average Interest Rate" 10. "Effective Tax Rate = (Statutory Tax Rate x Pre-Tax Income minus Tax Credits) / Pre-Tax Income" 11. "Dividends Paid = Prior Year Dividend per Share x (1 + Target Dividend Growth Rate) x Share Count" 12. "External Financing Need = Capital Expenditures + Dividends Paid minus Operating Cash Flow" ## Cross-Sheet Dependencies * The **Assumptions** sheet feeds all operational sheets, including **FPL_Revenue**, **NEER_Revenue**, and **Project_Backlog**. * The **Project_Backlog** sheet feeds **NEER_Revenue** (to calculate operational gigawatts) and **Capex_and_Depreciation** (to calculate new build capital expenditures). * The **Rate_Base_Model** feeds **FPL_Revenue** (for base rate adjustments) and **Consolidated_IS** (to target FPL net income). * The **Capex_and_Depreciation** sheet feeds **Consolidated_BS** (PP&E balances), **Consolidated_IS** (Depreciation expense), and **Consolidated_CFS** (Capital expenditure outflows). * The **Tax_and_Credits** sheet feeds **Consolidated_IS** (tax expense) and **Consolidated_CFS** (deferred taxes). * The **Debt_Schedule** feeds **Consolidated_IS** (interest expense) and **Consolidated_BS** (debt balances). * Circularity risk exists: The **Debt_Schedule** interest expense lowers Net Income on the **Consolidated_IS**, which lowers Retained Earnings on the **Consolidated_BS**, requiring more debt to balance the sheet, which in turn increases interest expense. ## Sign Convention * Revenues, income items, and operational metrics (like gigawatts and customer accounts) are positive. * Expenses (O&M, Depreciation, Interest) are positive in their specific build up schedules but must be subtracted in the Income Statement. * On the Cash Flow Statement, cash inflows (Net Income, Depreciation, increase in payables, debt issuance) are positive. Cash outflows (Capital expenditures, dividends, increase in receivables, debt repayment) are negative. * Balance Sheet items are positive absolute numbers, except for contra assets like Accumulated Depreciation, which should be negative. ## Things Most Likely to Go Wrong * "Failing to model fuel costs as a pure pass through. An increase in natural gas prices spikes FPL revenue and COGS equally, distorting margin percentages but leaving gross profit dollars unchanged." * "Misunderstanding the tax equity structure at NEER. The model must account for differential membership interests and the allocation of tax credits, which significantly depresses the GAAP effective tax rate." * "Ignoring the regulatory lag in FPL's rate base. Capital spent today does not earn a return until it is officially added to the rate base in a rate case or via a specific adjustment mechanism like the Solar Base Rate Adjustment." * "Treating NEER's backlog as guaranteed near term revenue. The model must apply a probability weighting or delay factor to the 29.5 gigawatt backlog due to interconnection queue and supply chain delays." * "Overlooking the corporate interest allocation. NextEra allocates interest expense to NEER based on a deemed capital structure (typically 70 percent debt), which impacts segment level adjusted earnings." * "Failing to separate maintenance capex from growth capex. Only growth capex expands the FPL rate base and NEER operational gigawatts." * "Miscalculating the share count dilution. NextEra frequently issues equity units to fund its massive capital expenditure programme, meaning the share count must grow annually in the forecast." * "Confusing GAAP Net Income with Adjusted Earnings. Management guides to Adjusted Earnings, which excludes non qualifying hedges and net unrealised mark to market gains or losses on derivative contracts." ## Validation Checks * "FPL Allowed ROE must remain between 9.95 percent and 11.95 percent based on the latest Florida Public Service Commission settlement. Flag if the implied ROE falls outside this band." * "Consolidated Effective Tax Rate should be negative or near zero (historically negative 18 percent to positive 6 percent) due to massive renewable tax credits. Flag if it normalises to the statutory 21 percent." * "Dividend payout ratio should remain approximately 60 to 65 percent of Adjusted Earnings based on stated management policy." * "Debt to Total Capitalisation should not exceed 60 to 65 percent to maintain the current investment grade credit rating." * "The balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every period." * "FPL Customer Account growth should track Florida population growth (historically 1.0 to 1.7 percent annually). Flag if the forecast exceeds 2.5 percent." * "NEER Operational GW additions must not exceed the stated 29.5 gigawatt backlog over the next four years without explicit new origination assumptions." * "Operating Cash Flow minus Capex (Free Cash Flow) should be consistently negative. Flag if the model shows positive Free Cash Flow, as this contradicts the company's growth strategy." ## Key Assumptions (Default Values) | Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale | |---|---|---|---| | FPL Customer Account Growth | 1.5 | % | Historical average driven by Florida population migration | | FPL Average Usage per Customer Growth | -0.5 | % | Trend of increasing energy efficiency offsetting weather variations | | FPL Allowed ROE | 10.95 | % | Midpoint of the latest FPSC approved range (9.95% to 11.95%) | | FPL Equity Thickness in Capital Structure | 59.6 | % | Standard regulatory capital structure for FPL | | NEER Wind Capacity Additions | 1,500 | MW / year | Based on recent historical run rate and backlog | | NEER Solar Capacity Additions | 2,800 | MW / year | Based on recent historical run rate and backlog | | NEER Battery Storage Additions | 1,800 | MW / year | Based on recent historical run rate and backlog | | Consolidated O&M Growth Rate | 3.0 | % | Inflationary pressure offset by operational efficiencies | | Blended Depreciation Rate | 3.8 | % | Historical average depreciation as a percentage of gross PP&E | | Effective Tax Rate | -5.0 | % | Blended rate reflecting massive PTC and ITC benefits offsetting statutory taxes | | Dividend Growth Rate | 10.0 | % | Management guidance for annual dividend per share growth | | Target Debt / Capitalisation | 55.0 | % | Required to maintain current investment grade credit ratings | | Annual Equity Issuance | 1,500 | $ Millions | Required to fund the gap between operating cash flow and massive growth capex | | WACC (FPL) | 6.5 | % | Regulated utility cost of capital | | WACC (NEER) | 7.5 | % | Unregulated developer cost of capital reflecting higher risk | | Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0 | % | Long term inflation and GDP growth proxy | ## Data Sources & Benchmarks * Where to find filings: SEC EDGAR database (search ticker NEE) or the NextEra Energy Investor Relations website. * Key peers for benchmarking: Duke Energy (DUK), Southern Company (SO), and Dominion Energy (D) for the regulated utility side. AES Corporation (AES) and Constellation Energy (CEG) for the unregulated generation side. * Industry data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for Florida electricity demand and natural gas prices. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for transmission data. * Consensus estimates source: Bloomberg, FactSet, or S&P Capital IQ for Adjusted EPS and Capex consensus. * Proprietary data: Wood Mackenzie for renewable energy project queue data and PPA pricing benchmarks. ## Sources * NextEra Energy 2024 and 2025 Form 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR). * NextEra Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Presentation. * Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC) rate case dockets and settlement agreements. * U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) state electricity profiles. --- ## Frequently asked questions ### What does NextEra Energy do? NextEra Energy is a leading North American clean energy company, operating through its regulated utility, Florida Power & Light (FPL), and its competitive clean energy developer, NextEra Energy Resources (NEER). FPL is the largest electric utility in the US, while NEER is the world's largest generator of renewable energy from wind and sun. ### How does NextEra Energy generate revenue? NextEra Energy generates revenue primarily through its two segments: Florida Power & Light (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER). FPL's revenue comes from its regulated utility operations in Florida, while NEER generates revenue from developing and operating long-term contracted renewable energy projects across North America. FPL contributes approximately 65-70% of consolidated revenue, with NEER contributing 30-35%. ### What is NextEra Energy's capital expenditure strategy? NextEra Energy has an extremely capital-intensive business model, with capital expenditures typically ranging from 40% to 60% of revenue. The company is currently executing a $40 to $45 billion capital plan over four years, primarily focused on FPL solar base rate adjustments, grid hardening, and building out NEER's 29.5 gigawatt renewable backlog. ### What is the assumed revenue growth rate for NextEra Energy's financial model? The financial model for NextEra Energy assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 9.11%. This growth reflects the balance between the regulated rate base expansion of Florida Power & Light and the significant renewable energy project pipeline of NextEra Energy Resources. ### What is the purpose of the NextEra Energy financial model? The NextEra Energy financial model projects the company's consolidated cash flows and earnings. Its primary purpose is to determine equity valuation and assess key credit metrics, balancing the regulated rate base growth of FPL with the unregulated renewable energy project pipeline of NEER. ### Can I download an Excel financial model for NextEra Energy? Yes, an Excel financial model for NextEra Energy is available for download. This model projects financial performance from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030, allowing users to analyze the company's future cash flows and earnings. [Interactive forecast calculator](https://finamodel.com/companies/nextera-energy/forecast)