# Norfolk Southern (NSC) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Norfolk Southern. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/norfolk-southern/forecast
- Industry: Industrials
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 11296000000 | 1873000000 | 5128000000 | 2722000000 |
| 2022 | 9789000000 | 2143000000 | 4156000000 | 2013000000 |
| 2023 | 11142000000 | 2785000000 | 5628000000 | 3005000000 |
| 2024 | 12745000000 | 2274000000 | 6030000000 | 3270000000 |
| 2025 | 12156000000 | 852000000 | 4149000000 | 1827000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Norfolk Southern's primary business model?

Norfolk Southern operates as a premier Class I freight railroad, managing an extensive network of approximately 19,200 route miles across the eastern United States. The company transports raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods, providing critical infrastructure for the North American supply chain.

### What are the main revenue drivers for Norfolk Southern?

Norfolk Southern's revenue is primarily driven by three segments: Merchandise (63%), Intermodal (25%), and Coal (12%). Merchandise includes a variety of products like agriculture, chemicals, and automotive, while Intermodal focuses on moving domestic and international containers.

### What is Norfolk Southern's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?

Norfolk Southern typically allocates 15% to 18% of its revenue to capital expenditures, which translates to approximately $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion annually. The vast majority, 70% to 80%, is maintenance capex required to ensure safe operations and maintain its extensive track infrastructure and rolling stock.

### What is the assumed revenue growth rate in the Norfolk Southern financial model?

The financial model for Norfolk Southern assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 1.85% for its forecast horizon. This assumption is a key input for projecting the company's future top-line performance from FY2026 to FY2030.

### What is the purpose of the Norfolk Southern financial model?

The Norfolk Southern financial model provides a comprehensive 3-statement forecast and discounted cash flow valuation. Its primary purpose is to determine the standalone intrinsic equity value of the company, while also serving as a scenario planning tool for the proposed acquisition by Union Pacific.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Norfolk Southern?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Norfolk Southern is available for download. This model offers a detailed forecast horizon from FY2026 through FY2030, incorporating key assumptions such as revenue growth, operating margins, and capital expenditures.