# NRG Energy (NRG) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for NRG Energy. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/nrg-energy/forecast
- Industry: Energy
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 7991000000 | 1185000000 | 1663000000 | 4438000000 |
| 2022 | 8690000000 | 1607000000 | 1540000000 | 510000000 |
| 2023 | 26777000000 | 224000000 | 4126000000 | 2187000000 |
| 2024 | 31488000000 | -7000000 | 2738000000 | 1221000000 |
| 2025 | 28256000000 | -819000000 | 1679000000 | -202000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does NRG Energy do?

NRG Energy is a leading integrated power company in North America that combines a large-scale independent power generation fleet with a massive retail electricity and smart home customer base. By matching generation supply with retail load, the company effectively hedges against wholesale power price volatility, creating a more stable margin profile.

### How does NRG Energy generate its revenue?

NRG Energy generates revenue primarily through retail electricity and natural gas sales in Texas and the East, supported by its generation fleet. Additionally, the Vivint Smart Home segment contributes significantly through smart home technology, security, and energy management subscriptions.

### What are the key capital expenditure plans for NRG Energy?

NRG Energy's capital expenditure is projected at approximately 2-4% of revenue, with about 60% allocated to growth initiatives. Major growth capex includes Texas Energy Fund projects to build 1.5 GW of new gas-fired generation between 2026 and 2028.

### What are the primary assumptions driving NRG Energy's financial model forecasts?

Key assumptions in NRG Energy's financial model include a revenue growth rate of 0.2 and COGS as a percentage of revenue at approximately 84.8%. Other significant inputs are SGA as a percentage of revenue at 6.9% and a tax rate of 21%.

### What are the main considerations for valuing NRG Energy's equity?

Valuing NRG Energy's equity involves assessing its cash flow generation capacity and the accretive impact of recent acquisitions like LS Power. Analysts also consider the growth trajectory of the Vivint Smart Home segment and the sustainability of the company's aggressive share repurchase program.

### Can I download a financial model for NRG Energy?

Yes, a downloadable Excel model is available to evaluate NRG Energy's equity valuation and cash flow generation capacity. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030 for detailed analysis.