# Phillips 66 (PSX) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Phillips 66. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/phillips-66/forecast
- Industry: Energy
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 107293000000 |  -  |  -  | 3076000000 |
| 2022 | 64129000000 |  -  |  -  | -3975000000 |
| 2023 | 111476000000 |  -  |  -  | 1317000000 |
| 2024 | 169990000000 |  -  |  -  | 11024000000 |
| 2025 | 147399000000 |  -  |  -  | 7015000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What is Phillips 66's primary business model and how does it generate revenue?

Phillips 66 is a diversified and integrated downstream energy provider. It generates revenue by manufacturing, transporting, and marketing refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, and renewable fuels across its Refining, Midstream, Marketing and Specialties, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels segments.

### What are the key factors influencing Phillips 66's revenue growth?

Phillips 66's revenue is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly crude oil and refined product prices, given its asset-heavy and commodity-driven business model. Segment-level profitability also depends on refining margins, midstream fee-based volumes, and the growing contribution from renewable fuels.

### What is Phillips 66's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?

Phillips 66's capital expenditure is typically 1.5-2.5% of revenue, although absolute capex (around $2.0B - $2.5B annually) is often a more stable metric due to commodity price fluctuations impacting revenue. This capex is roughly split 50/50 between maintenance, including critical refinery turnarounds, and growth initiatives like midstream NGL expansions.

### What are the main cost assumptions in a financial model for Phillips 66?

Key cost assumptions for Phillips 66 include COGS as approximately 89.14% of revenue, SGA at about 1.71% of revenue, and DA at around 1.43% of revenue. These percentages reflect the company's operational structure as an integrated downstream operator.

### How does the financial model assess Phillips 66's valuation and cash flow generation?

The financial model evaluates Phillips 66 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) equity valuation approach. It forecasts segment-level profitability and assesses the company's cash flow generation capacity to determine the sustainability of shareholder returns across various commodity price cycles.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Phillips 66, and what is its forecast horizon?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Phillips 66 is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon from Fiscal Year 2026 through Fiscal Year 2030, allowing for detailed analysis of future performance.