# Steel Dynamics (STLD) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Steel Dynamics. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/steel-dynamics/forecast
- Industry: Materials
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 10451132000 | 944345000 | 1307962000 | 677900000 |
| 2022 | 9587691000 | -211023000 | 1172931000 | 570828000 |
| 2023 | 18408850000 | 1197897000 | 4648758000 | 3214066000 |
| 2024 | 22260774000 | 3551501000 | 5476024000 | 3862674000 |
| 2025 | 18795316000 | 1862023000 | 3588985000 | 2450882000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) primarily do?

Steel Dynamics is a leading domestic steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. The company utilizes efficient electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mills to produce various steel products from recycled scrap and also operates a significant metals recycling network. They are also expanding into flat-rolled aluminum products.

### What are the main revenue drivers for Steel Dynamics?

Steel Dynamics' revenue is primarily driven by the volume and pricing of its steel products, which are influenced by the broader commodity cycle and demand from sectors like non-residential construction. Its diverse operations, including steel fabrication and metals recycling, also contribute to overall revenue. The newly launched Aluminum Operations segment is expected to contribute to future growth.

### What is Steel Dynamics' capital expenditure strategy?

Steel Dynamics maintains a significant capital expenditure program, with capex as a percentage of revenue typically ranging from 6% to 11%. This includes both maintenance capex, estimated at $300-$400 million annually, and growth capex, such as the recently completed $2.5 billion Aluminum Dynamics flat-rolled mill. The model uses a Capex_Pct_Revenue assumption of approximately 7%.

### How is Steel Dynamics' intrinsic value typically assessed in a financial model?

A financial model for Steel Dynamics forecasts cyclical cash flows to determine its intrinsic equity value. This assessment helps analysts evaluate the company's capacity for capital returns, like dividends and share repurchases, and the impact of its expansion into aluminum across the commodity cycle. Free Cash Flow is a critical input for Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis.

### Is there an Excel financial model available for Steel Dynamics (STLD)?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Steel Dynamics (STLD) is available for download. This model is designed to help equity analysts forecast the company's cyclical cash flows and intrinsic equity value, covering a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030.

### What is unique about Steel Dynamics' cost structure?

Steel Dynamics operates with a highly variable cost structure, with approximately 85% of its costs being variable due to its efficient electric arc furnace (EAF) production method. This allows the company to maintain a strong competitive position as a low-cost producer compared to traditional blast furnace operators. The model assumes COGS_Pct_Revenue at about 78.5%.