# Supermicro (SMCI) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Supermicro. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/supermicro/forecast
- Industry: Technology
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 3500360000 | 237705000 | 121435000 | 71918000 |
| 2022 | 3339281000 | -74672000 | 114126000 | 84308000 |
| 2023 | 3557422000 | 64939000 | 152132000 | 111865000 |
| 2024 | 5196099000 | -485983000 | 359967000 | 285163000 |
| 2025 | 7123482000 | 626787000 | 788042000 | 639998000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Supermicro (SMCI) do?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions, specializing in rack-scale and direct liquid cooling systems optimized for AI infrastructure. Its business is primarily focused on Server and Storage Systems, which constitute 92-95% of its revenue.

### What are the primary revenue drivers for Supermicro?

Supermicro's revenue is primarily driven by the hyper-growth in AI server volumes and the increasing demand for its direct liquid cooling solutions. The company is transitioning from selling standalone servers to full Data Center Building Block Solutions, further contributing to its revenue expansion.

### What are some key financial assumptions in the Supermicro model?

Key financial assumptions include a Revenue Growth rate of approximately 19.4% and COGS as a percentage of revenue at around 84.3%. Research and Development (R&D) is assumed to be about 5.5% of revenue, while capital expenditure (Capex) is very asset-light, at roughly 1.0% of revenue.

### What is the main purpose of the Supermicro financial model?

The Supermicro financial model evaluates the company's equity valuation and cash flow sustainability. It specifically focuses on the critical trade-off between hyper-growth in AI server volumes and potential gross margin compression to determine if the company can profitably scale its direct liquid cooling solutions.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Supermicro (SMCI)?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Supermicro (SMCI). This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing users to analyze the company's future financial performance.

### How does Supermicro's working capital impact its cash flow?

Supermicro has a highly consumptive working capital profile, requiring significant funding for inventory purchases, especially for AI components, before collecting cash from customers. This dynamic can result in negative operating cash flow during periods of hyper-growth.