# United Parcel Service (UPS) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for United Parcel Service. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/united-parcel-service/forecast
- Industry: Industrials
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 74094000000 | 2259000000 | 10158000000 | 4440000000 |
| 2022 | 84628000000 | 5047000000 | 10382000000 | 1343000000 |
| 2023 | 97287000000 | 10813000000 | 15763000000 | 12890000000 |
| 2024 | 100338000000 | 9335000000 | 16282000000 | 11548000000 |
| 2025 | 90958000000 | 5080000000 | 11941000000 | 6708000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does United Parcel Service (UPS) do?

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in package delivery and supply chain management, providing integrated logistics solutions across more than 200 countries and territories. It operates through its U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions segments.

### What are the primary revenue drivers for UPS?

UPS's revenue is primarily driven by its asset-heavy, transaction-based logistics network, with its U.S. Domestic Package segment contributing approximately 65% of total revenue. Key factors influencing revenue include package volume, pricing strategies, and global economic activity.

### What is UPS's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?

UPS targets capital expenditure between 4.0% and 5.5% of revenue, which translates to approximately $3.5B - $4.5B annually. This investment is split, with about 60% allocated to maintenance and 40% to growth initiatives like network automation and fleet electrification.

### How do labor costs impact UPS's financial performance?

Labor costs are a significant factor for UPS, notably impacted by events such as the 2023 Teamsters union contract negotiation which led to increased expenses. The company also implements cost-reduction programs like "Fit to Serve" and "Transformation 2.0" to manage these operational costs.

### What are the key inputs for a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation of UPS?

Key inputs for a DCF valuation of UPS include assumptions for revenue growth, cost of goods sold as a percentage of revenue, and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue. The model also considers the impact of macroeconomic shifts and union labor costs on consolidated free cash flow.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for United Parcel Service (UPS)?

Yes, a comprehensive Excel financial model for United Parcel Service (UPS) is available for download. This model serves as an equity valuation and scenario planning tool, enabling analysts to forecast the impact of various factors on free cash flow and intrinsic value.