# Valero Energy (VLO) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Valero Energy. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/valero-energy/forecast
- Industry: Energy
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 108324000000 | 2685000000 | 3889000000 | 2422000000 |
| 2022 | 64912000000 | -1488000000 | -1531000000 | -1421000000 |
| 2023 | 113977000000 | 3401000000 | 2177000000 | 930000000 |
| 2024 | 176383000000 | 9837000000 | 15735000000 | 11528000000 |
| 2025 | 144766000000 |  -  | 11901000000 | 8835000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Valero Energy Corporation do?

Valero Energy Corporation is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company operates 15 petroleum refineries and significant renewable fuel production facilities across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

### What are Valero Energy's primary revenue sources and business segments?

Valero Energy's primary revenue comes from its Refining segment, which accounts for approximately 94% of total revenue. Additional revenue streams include Renewable Diesel and Ethanol, each contributing about 3% of total revenue. The company's business model is highly dependent on fluctuating crack spreads, renewable fuel margins, and refinery utilization rates.

### What is Valero Energy's typical capital expenditure strategy?

Valero Energy typically allocates approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion annually to capital expenditures, with about $1.5 billion dedicated to sustaining (maintenance) capex. The remaining $500 million is directed towards growth projects, such as FCC unit optimization and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) upgrades.

### How does the financial model evaluate Valero Energy's equity valuation?

The financial model evaluates Valero Energy's equity valuation and cash flow generation capacity by analyzing the impact of key industry drivers. These drivers include fluctuating crack spreads, renewable fuel margins, and refinery utilization rates, which are crucial for determining shareholder returns.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Valero Energy?

Yes, an Excel financial model for Valero Energy is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, offering insights into the company's future financial performance.

### How does working capital impact Valero Energy's cash flows?

Valero Energy's working capital profile can lead to highly volatile cash flows, with net working capital swinging by billions of dollars quarter-to-quarter. This volatility is primarily driven by changes in the spot price of crude oil, which significantly affects inventory values.