# Vistra (VST) Forecast Calculator

Interactive five-year financial forecast and DCF for Vistra. Adjust revenue growth, margins, capex, and WACC to update revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/companies/vistra/forecast
- Industry: Utilities
- Forecast start year: 2026

## Historical data

| Year | Revenue | Free cash flow | EBITDA | Net income |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2021 | 11547000000 | 2023000000 | 3633000000 | 928000000 |
| 2022 | 10850000000 | 2078000000 | 3256000000 | 636000000 |
| 2023 | 17700000000 | -1239000000 | 238000000 | -1274000000 |
| 2024 | 15631000000 | -816000000 | 419000000 | -1227000000 |
| 2025 | 13804000000 | 3777000000 | 4163000000 | 1493000000 |

## Frequently asked questions

### What does Vistra Corp. do?

Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating across the United States. The company combines an asset-heavy zero-carbon and conventional generation fleet with an asset-light retail power business, effectively hedging its wholesale generation exposure with retail load.

### What are the primary revenue drivers for Vistra Corp.?

Vistra's revenue is primarily driven by sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its Retail segment, accounting for approximately 50% of revenue. The remaining revenue comes from electricity generation and wholesale energy activities across key U.S. markets like Texas, the Northeast, and California.

### What are the key capital expenditure assumptions in Vistra's financial model?

The financial model assumes Vistra's capital expenditure to be approximately 8.8% of revenue. This capex is roughly split 40% for maintenance and 60% for growth initiatives, including solar and energy storage developments, nuclear fuel purchases, and gas plant upgrades.

### How does the Vistra financial model assess equity valuation and cash flow?

The Vistra financial model provides a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and cash flow forecasting. It enables an analyst to assess the impact of wholesale power price volatility, retail margin expansion, and the downside protection of nuclear Production Tax Credits (PTCs) on free cash flow generation and capital return capacity.

### Can I download an Excel financial model for Vistra Corp. (VST)?

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Vistra Corp. is available. This model serves as a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecasting tool, with a forecast horizon extending from FY2026 to FY2030.

### What is Vistra's working capital profile like?

Vistra's working capital profile is generally negative or neutral, excluding the impact of derivative collateral. The company must post cash collateral for its hedging program when forward power prices rise, which can cause massive temporary swings in operating cash flow.