# Accel Club Financial Model Accel Club acquires Amazon third-party (FBA) seller businesses at 3–4x EV/EBITDA and scales them through operational integration, then exits at higher consumer/D2C multiples. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/accel-club - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/accel-club.xlsx - Category: Consumer/DTC - Model type: LBO - Funding round: Series A - Funding: $170M - Founded: 2021 - Geography: Global Amazon marketplace (primarily US, with geographic expansion post-acquisition). Team based in CIS/Europe. [DECK slides 10, 15] - Customer: B2C ## About the company Accel Club acquires Amazon FBA seller businesses and operates them as a scaled consumer-product portfolio. It sources targets, buys them at lower seller-earnings multiples, and integrates marketing, supply chain, technology, and analytics. Its revenue is consolidated product sales from owned brands on Amazon and other channels, not a SaaS fee. Returns come from post-acquisition growth, EBITDA improvement, financing, and eventual portfolio re-rating. The model is an e-commerce roll-up. Deal flow, acquisitions, purchase price, brand revenue, COGS, marketplace fees, working capital, and post-close margin expansion feed a consolidated P&L and IRR analysis. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition Accel Club is not a product company - it is an acquisition platform. It: 1. Sources Amazon FBA seller businesses via proprietary deal-flow (brokers: EmpireFlippers, Flippa, DragonFlip, Latona's; cold outreach; community mining; best-seller parsing). 2. Acquires at 3–4x EV/EBITDA (or EV/SDE). 3. Integrates acquired sellers into a shared operational platform (marketing, supply chain, tech, analytics). 4. Grows revenue and EBITDA post-acquisition (target 5x EV uplift). 5. Uses leverage on the growing EBITDA base to finance subsequent acquisitions - a self-reinforcing flywheel. 6. Ultimate exit: re-rate acquired portfolio from 3x to D2C/consumer multiples (15–40x+). Value creation waterfall (slide 25/26): Start EV → Revenue improvements (marketing & sales optimization; geographic & platform expansion; product improvements) → Cost improvements (supply chain optimization; production cost reduction; accounting standardization) → Financing of working capital (Leverage) → Multiple Arbitrage / Multiple Growth → Exit EV. Target total uplift: 5x. ## Market - Amazon 3P seller revenue (2020): $295Bn - Amazon GMV split (2020): 62% from third-party sellers; 30% 10-year CAGR - Amazon GMV history (3P + Retail, $Bn): 2010: 21+42=63; 2011: 34+56=90; 2012: 45+73=118; 2013: 63+73=136; 2014: 78+88=166; 2015: 91+99=190; 2016: 117+103=220; 2017: 137+114=251; 2018: 160+117=277; 2019: 200+135=335; 2020: 295+180=475 - 3P share trend: 33% (2010) → 62% (2020), consistently rising - Universe of Amazon 3P sellers: 8.0M registered; 2.1M active; 250k with sales >$0.1M - Target universe: 70k sellers with sales >$0.5M; 40k sellers with sales >$1M - Sellers willing to exit at 3–4x EV/EBITDA or EV/SDE - Acquisition deal multiples (Empire Flippers data): majority of deals trade at 1.5–3x; top decile reaches 4–5x; multiples increase with business size up to ~4.5x at $10M - No SAM/SOM figures explicitly stated. ## Revenue model Accel Club's revenue = consolidated revenue of all acquired Amazon FBA businesses in portfolio. Revenue is e-commerce product sales on Amazon (and multichannel post-acquisition). The model earns from: - **Top-line sales** of consumer/physical goods products on Amazon marketplace - **EBITDA improvement** post-acquisition (operational leverage across portfolio) - **Financial return** on equity via leveraged acquisitions + multiple arbitrage at exit (IRR play, not fee income) There is no SaaS fee, marketplace fee, or subscription revenue - this is a holding company / roll-up. The "revenue" in a financial model context means portfolio GMV/revenue from Amazon product sales. Amazon referral fee charged to 3P sellers is typically 15%; FBA fulfillment fee ~$3/product - these are cost inputs at the acquired-business level. ## Traction & metrics Qualitative indicators only: - Deal sourcing funnel described; conversion rate into deals cited as ~10% (sourced from Thrasio interviews, not Accel Club's own data) - "Deal sourcing built to process potential targets in days and close deals in weeks" - No closed acquisitions, portfolio size, or revenue figure shown. ## Unit economics - Acquisition entry multiple: 3–4x EV/EBITDA - Target exit multiple: 15x (FMCG), 28x (consumer), >40x (D2C) - Total EV uplift target: 5x from Start EV to Exit EV - Leverage used to finance acquisitions (reduces equity required, amplifies IRR) - Amazon referral fee: ~15% of GMV - FBA fulfillment: ~$3/product - Settlement cycle for 3P sellers: every 15 days - No specific EBITDA margin, CAC, payback, or LTV numbers in deck. ## Competition / moat Not explicitly called out as a "competition" slide. Implicit moat claims: - Proprietary scouting process (parsing Amazon categories, community sourcing) - A-class team: ex-Yandex Foodtech ($1Bn+ GMV), Busfor (acquired by BlaBlaCar $100M+), BCG, McKinsey, RDIF, JPMorgan - Operational platform (100+ seller tools: Helium 10, Keepa, Sellerboard, etc.) enabling fast DD and execution - First-mover advantage in European/CIS market implied (North Wall Capital described as one of the first European e-commerce roll-up lenders) - Key competitor archetype (Thrasio, etc.) referenced indirectly via interview data but no competitive matrix shown. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds **Team (slide 15–16):** - Max Firsov - Co-founder & CEO; ex-CEO Yandex Food-tech ($1Bn+ GMV); Founder/CEO Foodfox (acquired by Yandex); 15+ years e-commerce & finance - Nick Tuzenko - Co-founder & Managing Director; ex-MD Busfor (sold to BlaBlaCar $100M+); BCG; MIPT - Askar Bagaviev - VP Acquisitions; ex-BCG Project Leader; ex-Head of Digital CROC; ex-COO NIMB - Daria Mash - Head of M&A; ex-Mindrock Capital; ex-Dentsu Aegis; KPMG M&A; 12+ years IB/M&A - Maria Krot - VP Operations; ex-Yandex.Eats, Uber.Eats, Alfa-bank, L'Oreal - Ruslan Khabibov - CFO; ex-RDIF, McKinsey, VTB Capital; $1Bn+ in closed deals - Marina Morosanova - Head of Talent; ex-JPMorgan HR BP - Max Sergeev - Head of Marketplace Efficiency; ex-Yandex Foodtech data science **Investors (slide 18):** - North Wall Capital (European e-commerce roll-up lender) - Redseed (Gregory Finger, ex-DST Global; Ilya Shirokov, founder Joom $1Bn+) - Flyer One Ventures (CEE IT; backed by Horizon Capital / IFC / EBRD) - Wladimir Klitschko --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** Amazon aggregator / roll-up LBO model. This is a leveraged buy-and-build: equity deployed to acquire EBITDA-generating Amazon businesses at low entry multiples, debt layered on growing EBITDA base to fund subsequent acquisitions, exit via multiple expansion. Best modelled as a **portfolio roll-up + leveraged acquisition model** combining: (a) per-acquisition unit economics (entry EV, EBITDA, debt/equity split, post-acq revenue/EBITDA growth), (b) consolidated portfolio P&L (revenue, EBITDA, interest), (c) equity IRR / MOIC at exit. A simplified 3-statement is needed at portfolio level; no single-company DCF. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** 5-year horizon (Year 1–5), annual. Monthly granularity only for working capital / cash timing in Year 1. Acquisitions modelled as discrete events on a deployment schedule. - **Key drivers & assumptions:** *Deal pipeline & deployment:* - Number of acquisitions per year - Average acquisition size (revenue) - Average EBITDA margin at acquisition - Entry multiple: 3–4x EV/EBITDA - Debt / equity split per deal - Debt interest rate *Post-acquisition value creation:* - Revenue CAGR post-integration - EBITDA margin improvement - Time to full integration - 5x total EV uplift from Start EV to Exit EV *Amazon fee structure (cost inputs):* - Amazon referral fee: 15% of GMV - FBA fulfillment cost: ~$3/unit *Exit / multiple re-rate:* - Exit EV/EBITDA multiple: 15x (FMCG-style), 25–28x (consumer), >40x (D2C) - Current 3P entry multiple: 3x - Target blended exit: *Equity returns:* - IRR target - Hold period: - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear):** - **Base:** 4 acquisitions/year at avg $1M revenue, 25% EBITDA margin, 3.5x entry, 12x exit, 50% debt, 10% interest; 30% post-acq revenue CAGR. - **Bull:** 8 acquisitions/year at avg $1.5M revenue, 30% EBITDA margin, 3x entry, 20x exit, 65% debt; D2C multiple re-rate achieved. - **Bear:** 2 acquisitions/year, 20% EBITDA margin, 4x entry, 8x exit, 40% debt; slower post-acq growth (15% CAGR); higher interest rates. - Flex variables: deal pace, entry multiple, exit multiple, post-acq EBITDA margin, debt %, interest rate. - **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. **Assumptions** - all drivers in one place (deal pace, per-deal metrics, debt terms, growth rates, exit multiples) 2. **Deal Log** - one row per acquisition (date, seller name, revenue, EBITDA, entry multiple, EV, debt, equity, projected exit) 3. **Per-Deal P&L** - revenue, COGS, gross profit, EBITDA pre/post integration for each acquired business 4. **Consolidated P&L** - portfolio roll-up: total revenue, EBITDA, D&A, EBIT, interest, EBT, tax, net income 5. **Debt Schedule** - total debt outstanding, draws per acquisition, repayment, interest 6. **Cash Flow & Equity Deployment** - equity deployed per period, operating CF, debt service, net cash 7. **Portfolio Valuation / Exit Bridge** - EV at entry vs exit per deal; total portfolio EV; equity value 8. **Equity Returns** - IRR, MOIC per deal and blended; sensitivity table (exit multiple vs EBITDA growth) 9. **Value Creation Waterfall** - Start EV → Revenue uplift → Cost uplift → Leverage → Multiple arbitrage → Exit EV (mirrors slide 25) 10. **Dashboard** - KPI summary: # deals, total equity deployed, total portfolio revenue, total EBITDA, blended IRR, MOIC ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Accel Club financial model free? Yes. The Accel Club model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.