# Archer SPAC Financial Model - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/archer-spac - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/archer-spac.xlsx - Category: Enterprise/Security - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: SPAC - Funding: $1.7B - Founded: 2021 - Customer: B2B2C ## About the company Archer is developing the Maker electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing aircraft for short urban trips. The aircraft is designed for four passengers, a 60-mile range, and a 150 mph cruise speed, with a stated goal of making city-to-airport travel faster and quieter than existing alternatives. Its plan combines aircraft sales with a future urban air-mobility service. United Airlines placed a $1 billion order with an additional $500 million option, while Archer's manufacturing plan moves from lower-volume aerospace production toward scaled output with Stellantis after certification. The SPAC model tracks transaction proceeds, trust redemptions, PIPE financing, and the pro forma ownership structure. Operating forecasts separately build OEM deliveries and aircraft pricing from ride-sharing revenue per seat-mile, then layer certification timing, fleet utilisation, manufacturing costs, and cash burn. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - **Aircraft: "Maker"** - eVTOL with 12 motors/propellers, high-aspect-ratio wing, carbon fiber composite airframe. - Key specs: 60-mile range, 150 mph cruise, 45 dB noise (2,000 ft AGL - claims 100x quieter than helicopter), 4 passengers, zero emissions. - Battery: "Meru" lithium-ion, 74 kWh / 672 kW max power. - Cost target: $3.30/seat-mile (comparable to UberX). - Value prop: 10x faster than car for urban routes (e.g., Manhattan–JFK in 7 min vs. 70 min UberX); priced at ~$50/trip vs. $1,775 helicopter. --- ## Market - **Annual TAM:** $1.5 trillion, comprising: - Shared Mobility: $674B - Airlines: $177B - Cargo: $413B - Military & Defense: $12B - Key Accelerants (batteries, hardware, comms, software): $198B - **Upside TAM:** $3.0 trillion by 2040 - Source: Morgan Stanley Research, "Flying Car Disruptor Series Update," October 2020. - **2026E revenue of $2.23B represents <0.15% of TAM** - no SAM/SOM breakdown provided. - No SOM or market-share progression chart in deck. --- ## Revenue model Two segments: **Archer Direct - Aircraft OEM** - Sell eVTOL aircraft to airline/commercial partners. - Anchor order: $1.0B from United Airlines + option for additional $500M. - Aircraft delivery starting 2024 (post FAA Type Certificate). - Future OEM markets (not in base forecast): cargo, DoD/military. **Archer UAM - Aerial Ride Sharing** - Operate own fleet for ride-sharing; revenue per seat-mile. - Pricing: $3.30/seat-mile → ~$50/trip for a 25-mile route. - 25 trips/day per aircraft at $3.30/mile over 25 miles → $2.4M revenue/aircraft/year (management projection). - Operating model: own and operate fleet; costs decline via autonomy, scale manufacturing, battery improvement. - OEM claimed to be 3x less profitable over aircraft life than UAM operations. **Manufacturing ramp:** - 2021–2026: Standard aerospace manufacturing, 200–1,000 aircraft/year. - 2026+: High-volume manufacturing via Stellantis partnership, >5,000 aircraft/year. --- ## Traction & metrics - **Orders:** $1.0B from United Airlines (largest eVTOL purchase in history per deck); option for additional $500M. - **No revenue, no delivered aircraft** as of deck date (2021). - **Team:** 200+ years combined eVTOL experience; key hires from Wisk, Airbus Vahana, Piper, Mazda, Tesla. - **FAA certification:** Process started 2020; Type Certificate targeted 2024. - **Battery:** Meru flight worthiness testing began 2021. - No customer count, no pilots, no flight hours cited as traction metrics. --- ## Unit economics All figures are management projections; no historical actuals. **Per eVTOL rideshare vehicle (annual, steady-state):** - Revenue: $2.4M - Direct & Indirect Operating Cost: $1.4M - Operating Income: $1.1M - Implied operating margin: ~46% **Ride share economics basis:** - 25-mile trip at $3.30/seat-mile = $82.50 gross per trip (or ~$50 cited for NYC–JFK route - implies slightly different distance/pricing assumption) - 25 trips/day × 365 days = $2.4M/year/aircraft - Compared to ride-share car: $136,900/year → eVTOL generates ~18x more revenue per vehicle **OEM pricing:** Not explicitly stated per-unit; implied from United order ($1B for undisclosed unit count). **Gross margin:** Not broken out between segments in the deck; EBITDA margin shown at portfolio level (see §9 financial table). --- ## Competition / moat Competitive landscape (slide 27): Joby, Wisk, Lilium, Volocopter, EHang. **Archer differentiation claimed:** - Only eVTOL with a contracted airline order (United Airlines). - U.S. FAA certification (vs. EASA or CAA for European/Chinese competitors). - Designed for mass manufacturing from day one; Stellantis OEM partnership for composites. - No battery energy advancement needed (unlike Lilium, Volocopter, EHang). - 4-passenger piloted aircraft - same spec as Joby; differentiated from Wisk (2-pax autonomous) and Lilium (regional). **Moat:** Regulatory head-start (FAA intake board approved 2020), United Airlines strategic partnership (equity holder + operational co-development), Stellantis composites partnership, proprietary battery (Meru) and flight software. --- ## Team & funding ask / use of funds **Founders:** - Adam Goldstein & Brett Adcock - Co-Founders, Co-CEOs (previously co-founders of Vettery, acquired). - Marc Lore - First/largest Archer investor; founder of Jet.com ($3.3B Walmart acquisition), Quidsi.com ($500M Amazon acquisition). **SPAC sponsor:** - Ken Moelis - Chairman, Atlas Crest; Founder & CEO, Moelis & Company. - Michael Spellacy - CEO, Atlas Crest; 25 years in tech/aerospace advisory. **Transaction / capital raise:** - Pro forma enterprise value: $2,713M (~$2.7B) - Pro forma equity value: $3,750M (375M shares × $10 ACIC share price) - Cash to Archer balance sheet: $1,037M - Sources: $500M SPAC cash in trust + $600M PIPE + $2,650M rolled Archer equity - Est. transaction expenses: $63M - Pro forma ownership: Existing Archer shareholders 67%, PIPE 16%, Public SPAC 13%, Founder shares 3% - PIPE investors: United Airlines, Stellantis, Exor, Baron Capital, Federated Hermes Kaufmann, Mubadala, Putnam, Access Industries, Ken Moelis, Marc Lore ($30M combined). **Use of proceeds (2021–2025):** - ~$500M: Organizational buildout & R&D (certification, core tech, autonomy) - ~$550M: Capital investments (manufacturing facility, in-house component manufacturing) **Valuation anchor:** 1.2x 2026E EV/Revenue; 4.2x 2026E EV/EBITDA - presented as discount to comps (e.g., Tesla 2025: 8.7x rev / 46.5x EBITDA). --- ## Recommended financial model **This is a SPAC/de-SPAC deal, not an operating startup model.** The primary deliverable is a SPAC/de-SPAC model with an integrated operating forecast. ### Archetype + why **SPAC/de-SPAC model with integrated operating forecast (dual-segment: OEM + UAM).** - Deal mechanics (sources & uses, pro forma cap table, ownership waterfall) must be modeled first. - The operating forecast is long-horizon (2024–2030) and aircraft-production-unit-driven; it needs to tie back to the deal valuation (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA at 2026E). - Two distinct P&L segments - OEM (per-unit aircraft sales) and UAM (fleet-operated ride-sharing, per-seat-mile) - with different margin profiles, capex intensity, and timing. ### Forecast horizon & granularity - **Horizon:** 2021–2030 (deal close through mature operations); deck shows 2024E–2030E financials. - **Granularity:** Annual (deck provides annual figures; no quarterly breakout shown). - Pre-revenue years (2021–2023): R&D/capex spend only. - First revenue year: 2024E (10 aircraft produced). ### Key drivers & assumptions **Deal mechanics:** - ACIC share price: $10.00 - Pro forma shares outstanding: 375M - PIPE: $600M - SPAC trust: $500M - Transaction expenses: $63M - Cash to balance sheet: $1,037M **Aircraft production volume:** | Year | Units | | ----- | ------ | | 2024E | 10 | | 2025E | 250 | | 2026E | 500 | | 2027E | 650 | | 2028E | 800 | | 2029E | 1,400 | | 2030E | 2,300 | **Revenue:** | Year | Revenue ($M) | Growth % | | ----- | ------------ | --------- | | 2024E | $42 | NM | | 2025E | $1,044 | 2,375% | | 2026E | $2,230 | 114% | | 2027E | $3,444 | 54% | | 2028E | $4,709 | 37% | | 2029E | $7,523 | 60% | | 2030E | $12,335 | 64% | **EBITDA:** | Year | EBITDA ($M) | Margin % | | ----- | ----------- | --------- | | 2024E | ($147) | NM | | 2025E | $255 | 24% | | 2026E | $647 | 29% | | 2027E | $1,092 | 32% | | 2028E | $1,551 | 33% | | 2029E | $2,609 | 35% | | 2030E | $4,520 | 37% | **Capex & Free Cash Flow:** | Year | Capex ($M) | FCF ($M) | | ----- | ---------- | -------- | | 2024E | ($58) | ($205) | | 2025E | ($265) | ($10) | | 2026E | ($490) | $157 | | 2027E | ($592) | $500 | | 2028E | ($667) | $884 | | 2029E | ($1,312) | $1,297 | | 2030E | ($1,745) | $2,775 | **Unit economics inputs:** - Revenue per rideshare aircraft/year: $2.4M - Direct & indirect operating cost/aircraft/year: $1.4M - Operating income/aircraft/year: $1.1M - Cost per seat-mile: $3.30 - Trips/day per aircraft: 25 - Average trip distance: 25 miles **Segment revenue split (OEM vs. UAM):** Deck does not explicitly split revenue by segment year-by-year. Reasonable assumption: 2024 is 100% OEM (United Airlines order); UAM contribution grows from ~0% in 2024 to majority by 2027+ as fleet scales. Model should allow segment toggle. **OEM aircraft ASP:** Implied ~$4.2M/unit based on 2024E revenue of $42M ÷ 10 aircraft. Flag for sensitivity - deck doesn't state per-unit price explicitly. **EBITDA-to-net income bridge:** No D&A, interest, or tax disclosed. Pre-revenue and pre-cash-flow-positive through 2025, so net loss will exceed EBITDA loss in early years. Model D&A as % of capex; no debt per deal structure; NOL carryforward shields taxes initially. **FCF derivation:** FCF = EBITDA − Capex (per deck definition); working capital and D&A adjustments not provided. Model FCF using EBITDA − Capex as shown; add D&A add-back and working capital build as separate assumptions. **Cash flow breakeven:** Q4 2025. **Autonomy cost reduction:** Margin expansion from 24% (2025) to 37% (2030) partly attributed to autonomy (no pilot cost from ~2028). Autonomy timeline: supervised 2027, remote 2028. **Manufacturing cost curve:** Cost/unit declines as volume scales from 250 (2025) to 2,300 (2030). Deck implies this but gives no explicit per-unit cost by year. Model as declining COGS/unit with production volume (economies of scale + Stellantis partnership). ### Scenarios | Variable | Bear | Base | Bull | | --------- | ----- | ----- | ----- | | Aircraft production volume | 50% of deck | Deck figures | 120% of deck | | OEM ASP | $3.5M | ~$4.2M [implied] | $5.0M | | UAM trips/day per aircraft | 15 | 25 | 30 | | EBITDA margin 2030 | 28% | 37% | 42% | | Autonomy timeline | Delayed 2yrs | Per deck | On time | | SPAC redemptions | 80% | 0% | 0% | | FAA Type Certificate | 2026 (2yr delay) | 2024 | 2024 | ### Required sheets / outputs 1. **Deal Summary** - Sources & uses, pro forma cap table, ownership table (Archer shareholders / PIPE / public / founders), EV bridge 2. **Operating Forecast** - Annual 2021–2030; aircraft production units, OEM revenue, UAM fleet revenue, combined P&L (revenue / EBITDA / EBITDA margin / Capex / FCF) 3. **Segment Build** - OEM P&L (units × ASP, COGS, gross profit) and UAM P&L (fleet size, utilization, revenue/aircraft, operating cost/aircraft, segment income) 4. **Unit Economics** - Per-aircraft economics for UAM (sensitivity on trips/day, ASP/mile, utilization rate, cost per trip) 5. **Valuation** - EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA at deal price vs. comps (Tesla, Joby, Blade, Airbnb, Lyft); sensitivity table on entry multiple vs. exit multiple 6. **Scenario Toggle** - Bear / Base / Bull switch driving production volumes, ASP, margins, autonomy timing 7. **Cash & Runway** - Uses of $1.037B proceeds vs. annual cash burn through FCF breakeven (Q4 2025) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Archer SPAC financial model free? Yes. The Archer SPAC model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.