# Arrival Financial Model

Arrival is an EV manufacturer of commercial vans and buses using proprietary Microfactories and vertically integrated components, going public via SPAC merger with CIIG Merger Corp.

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/arrival
- Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/arrival.xlsx
- Category: Fintech
- Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation
- Funding round: SPAC
- Funding: $5.4B
- Founded: 2021
- Geography: UK (HQ, Bicester Van Microfactory), US (Rock Hill, SC Bus Microfactory), Germany, Netherlands, Israel, Russia. [DECK sl.42]
- Customer: B2B

## About the company

Arrival develops electric commercial vans and buses using vertically integrated components and smaller Microfactories. The strategy is to serve fleet operators with purpose-built EVs while avoiding the scale and capital profile of conventional vehicle plants.

The company presented its growth story through a SPAC transaction, with commercial fleets such as UPS forming the core customer context. Future fleet-management software and emissions credits were discussed as potential complements to direct vehicle sales.

This model is driven by vehicle deliveries, average selling price, Microfactory capacity and ramp timing, and unit-level gross margin. It should include manufacturing capex, working capital, operating expenses, and cash runway, with software or credit revenue kept as clearly separate optional lines.

## What's included

- 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions
- Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule
- Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking
- Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check
- Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR
- Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention

## Product & value proposition

Four commercial EV product lines, all designed for Microfactory robotic assembly:

| Product | SOP | Range | Key specs |
| -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Electric Bus | Q4 2021 | 240–400 km | 80–125 passengers; orders in advanced discussions |
| Electric Van | Q3 2022 | 150–340 km | 975–2,000 kg payload; >10,000 orders (incl. UPS) |
| Large Electric Van | Q3 2022 | 190–400 km | 4,000 kg payload; >2,500 orders |
| Small Vehicle Platform | Q3 2023 | 100–300 km | 450–800 kg payload; TBD orders |

Core differentiators:
- **Microfactories**: 20,000 m² footprint vs. ~2,000,000 m² traditional OEM; CapEx $44M per factory (10k units/yr) vs. $950M for VW Wrzesnia equivalent; setup 6 months vs. 36 months.
- **Proprietary composites**: 25x tooling cost reduction vs. steel; no paint shop or metal stamping.
- **Plug & Play components**: 18-month development cycle vs. 3+ years; 20% supplier margin reduction.
- **Modular skateboard platform**: shared across all vehicle types; FWD/RWD/AWD.
- **In-house software**: 500+ software engineers; OTA upgradeable; cloud-connected; AV-ready.
- ~180 filed patent innovations across batteries, composites, robotics, Microfactories, modular HW/SW.

---

## Market

- Total combined addressable market (van + bus): **~$430B**
- Total van addressable market: **~$280B**; initial BE LCV van SAM: **~$70B**
- Total bus addressable market: **~$154B**; initial BE LCV bus SAM: **~$40B**
- Annual van addressable volume by 2025: **~2.0M units**
- Annual bus addressable volume by 2025: **~131k units**
- E-commerce growth driving van demand: 37% increase 2020–2024
- No SOM figures provided for Arrival's specific capture rate.

---

## Revenue model

- **Primary**: Direct vehicle sales to commercial fleet operators (B2B). UPS is anchor customer; bus orders via public transit operators (LOI with Ember noted).
- **Pricing**: Not explicitly stated per unit. TCO comparison implies van purchase price ~$92K; bus purchase price ~$396K. These are total cost of ownership comparisons, not pure list prices.
- **Future / optional revenue streams** (not in financial projections): SaaS fleet management platform, emissions credit sales (ZEV / ACT regulations).
- **Channels**: Direct to fleet; Hyundai/Kia partnership for joint vehicle development and potential licensing.
- Revenue mix 2024E: Van 49%, Bus 22%, Large Van 17%, Small Vehicle Platform 12%.

---

## Traction & metrics

| Metric | Value | Slide |
| -- | -- | -- |
| Order book value | ~$1.2B | sl.6, sl.7 |
| UPS order | 10,000 units + option for 10,000 additional | sl.7 |
| Total van orders | >10,000 (incl. UPS) | sl.8 |
| Large van orders | >2,500 (incl. UPS) | sl.8 |
| Bus: van orders late-stage discussions | 5,000 vehicles (3k subject to LOIs) | sl.12 |
| UPS investment | Strategic partner + investor | sl.7 |
| Hyundai/Kia investment | €100M equity investment | sl.7 |
| Employees | ~1,200 | sl.42 |
| Software engineers | 500+ | sl.34 |
| LinkedIn UK #1 startup to work for (2020) | Noted | sl.6 |
| Partnership since | 2016 (UPS trial) | sl.7 |
| Prototype deliveries to UPS | Started 2020 | sl.7 |

No revenue, ARR, or historical financial figures in the deck - Arrival was pre-revenue at time of presentation.

---

## Unit economics

- **Van TCO** (100 km/day, 365 days/yr, 10 years): Arrival ~$92K (~$0.25/km) vs. Diesel ~$111K (~$0.30/km) vs. Competitor E-Van ~$127K (~$0.35/km). ~17% improvement vs. diesel; ~28% vs. competitor EV.
- **Bus TCO** (250 km/day, 365 days/yr, 10 years): Arrival ~$396K (~$0.43/km) vs. Diesel ~$752K (~$0.82/km) vs. Competitor E-Bus ~$790K (~$0.87/km). ~47% improvement vs. diesel; ~50% vs. competitor EV.
- **Projected gross margins (2024E)**: Bus 38%, Large Van 34%, Van 21%, Small Vehicle Platform 18%; blended gross profit $3.7B on $14.1B revenue (~26% blended).
- **Microfactory OpEx**: $12M/yr for 1 factory (10k units); $120M for 10 factories (100k units).
- **Microfactory CapEx**: $44M per factory (10k units/yr).

---

## Competition / moat

Competitors cited: Canoo, Fisker, Hyliion, Lordstown, Nikola, Workhorse, XLFleet.

Arrival's stated moat:
- Arrival is the only player targeting commercial vehicle fleet operators (van + bus) among listed EV SPACs.
- Fully vertically integrated (components, materials, software, robotics, factory process) - no peer in the comp set has comparable vertical integration.
- Lowest EV/TAM ratio in peer set at 1.3% (vs. peer range 3.4%–10.9%).
- EV/2024E Revenue of 0.4x vs. peer median 1.3x; EV/2024E EBITDA of 1.7x vs. peer median 4.7x - management-implied deep discount.
- ~180 filed patent innovations (composites, robotics, Microfactories, battery, SW/HW).
- Contracted order book of 20,000 units (~$1.2B) - only Nikola ($1.4B, trucks) comparable.

---

## Team & funding ask / use of funds

**Arrival management (key)**: Denis Sverdlov (Founder/CEO, prior $1.5B tech exit), Avinash Rugoobur (President, led Cruise acquisition at GM for $1B+), Mike Ableson (CEO Automotive, 35+ yrs GM).

**CIIG management**: Peter Cuneo (Chairman/CEO, Marvel Entertainment turnaround to $4.5B Disney sale), Michael Minnick (CIO), Gavin Cuneo (COO).

**Transaction / funding**:
- Total proceeds: **$660M**
  - CIIG trust cash: $260M
  - PIPE: $400M (40M shares @ $10.00/share)
- Transaction expenses: $60M
- Net cash on balance sheet post-close: $669M
- Use of funds: Fund growth (Microfactory buildout, product launch). Specific capex/opex allocation not broken out in deck.
- Pro forma enterprise value: **$5.39B**
- Pro forma equity value: **$6.06B** (606.179M shares @ $10.00)
- Existing Arrival shareholders: 88.1% of pro forma equity
- PIPE investors: 7%; CIIG public shareholders: 4%; CIIG sponsor: 1%
- Zero debt on pro forma balance sheet.

---

## Recommended financial model

**This is a SPAC / de-SPAC transaction.** The appropriate primary model framework is a **de-SPAC operating forecast model** - i.e., a full 3-statement operating forecast (IS / BS / CF) for the post-combination Arrival Group, driven by vehicle volume ramp and Microfactory economics, with a deal summary tab reconciling SPAC proceeds and pro forma capitalization. A pure accretion/dilution merger model is not applicable (no target being folded into an acquirer - this is a private company going public via SPAC).

- **Archetype**: EV OEM volume-ramp operating model with SPAC deal tab. Comparable to how Nikola, Lordstown, and Fisker SPAC models were built. Revenue driven by unit volume × ASP, gross margin by product mix, EBITDA by operating leverage vs. Microfactory OpEx.

- **Forecast horizon & granularity**: 2021–2024E (as per deck projections). Annual granularity with quarterly detail for 2021–2022 to capture SOP timing (Bus Q4 2021, Van/Large Van Q3 2022). Extend to 2025 for steady-state sensitivity.

- **Key drivers & assumptions**:

| Driver | Seed value | Source |
| -- | -- | -- |
| Bus SOP | Q4 2021 | - |
| Van / Large Van SOP | Q3 2022 | - |
| Small Vehicle Platform SOP | Q3 2023 | - |
| 2022E total volume | ~11.6k units (Bus 1.0k, Large Van 4.4k, Van 5.2k) | - |
| 2023E total volume | ~68.4k units (Bus 6.0k, Large Van 15.6k, Van 31.2k, SVP 15.6k) | - |
| 2024E total volume | ~257.6k units (Bus 11.3k, Large Van 31.5k, Van 136.5k, SVP 78.7k) | - |
| 2022E revenue | $1,009M | - |
| 2023E revenue | $5,099M | - |
| 2024E revenue | $14,135M | - |
| 2024E revenue mix | Van 49%, Bus 22%, Large Van 17%, SVP 12% | - |
| Implied ASP - Van (2024E) | ~$51k/unit | - |
| Implied ASP - Bus (2024E) | ~$274k/unit | - |
| Implied ASP - Large Van (2024E) | ~$76k/unit | - |
| Implied ASP - SVP (2024E) | ~$22k/unit | - |
| 2024E blended gross margin | ~26% ($3.7B GP / $14.1B rev) | - |
| Gross margin - Bus | 38% | - |
| Gross margin - Large Van | 34% | - |
| Gross margin - Van | 21% | - |
| Gross margin - SVP | 18% | - |
| 2022E EBITDA | $60M | - |
| 2023E EBITDA | $1,115M | - |
| 2024E EBITDA | $3,243M | - |
| 2021P EBITDA less CapEx | ($292M) | - |
| 2022P EBITDA less CapEx | ($409M) | - |
| 2023P EBITDA less CapEx | $176M | - |
| 2024P EBITDA less CapEx | $1,400M | - |
| Microfactory CapEx per factory | $44M (10k units/yr capacity) | - |
| Microfactory OpEx per factory | $12M/yr (10k units/yr) | - |
| Microfactory setup time | 6 months | - |
| Pro forma cash (post-SPAC) | $669M | - |
| Pro forma debt | $0 | - |
| Pro forma shares outstanding | 606.179M | - |
| Share price at deal | $10.00 | - |
| FX rate (EUR/USD) | 1.1863 (Aug 17, 2020 spot) | - |
| Cash flow positive | Beginning March 2023 (EBITDA less CapEx basis) | - |

- **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex)**:
  - **Base**: Deck projections as stated - Bus SOP Q4 2021, Van Q3 2022, ramp to 257k units by 2024.
  - **Bull**: Faster Microfactory deployments, additional UPS option exercised (10k extra), Hyundai/Kia platform licensing revenue, SaaS layer.
  - **Bear**: SOP delays of 2–4 quarters (high probability given EV startup track record), lower initial yields, CapEx overruns, UPS order cancellation or modification.
  - Key flex variables: SOP date by product, volume ramp curve, ASP (fleet pricing pressure), gross margin by product (composite/component cost maturation), CapEx per Microfactory.

- **Required sheets / outputs**:
  1. **Deal Summary** - SPAC sources & uses, pro forma cap table, ownership waterfall (88%/7%/4%/1%), EV bridge
  2. **Assumptions** - Volume ramp by product, ASP by product, gross margin by product, Microfactory count + CapEx, opex drivers
  3. **Income Statement** - Revenue by product line, COGS, gross profit, SG&A, R&D, EBITDA, D&A, EBIT, interest, taxes, net income (2021–2025E, annual)
  4. **Balance Sheet** - Working capital, PP&E (Microfactory count × unit cost), cash, debt (zero at close), equity
  5. **Cash Flow Statement** - Operating CF, CapEx (Microfactory buildout schedule), free cash flow, ending cash
  6. **Valuation / Benchmarking** - EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA vs. peer set (Canoo, Fisker, Nikola, Workhorse, etc.) at 2023E and 2024E
  7. **Scenarios** - Toggle for Base / Bull / Bear on SOP timing, volume, ASP

## Frequently asked questions

### Is the Arrival financial model free?

Yes. The Arrival model is a free Excel download with live formulas.

### Can I change the assumptions?

Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.