# Cake Financial Model Hello Cake, Inc. is a digitally-native, omni-channel sexual wellness brand selling lubricants, lotions, objects, protection, and hygiene products DTC and through mass retail (Walmart, Amazon). - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/cake - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/cake.xlsx - Category: Health-tech - Model type: Unit-economics / DTC - Funding round: Seed - Funding: $37M - Founded: 2021 - Geography: United States (national retail rollout with Walmart) [DECK] - Customer: B2C ## About the company Hello Cake is a digitally native sexual-wellness brand selling lubricants, lotions, objects, protection, and hygiene products. It reaches customers through its own site, Amazon, and mass retail including Walmart, making channel execution as important as individual-product demand. The business combines higher-margin DTC demand with wholesale scale, while products and retail launches determine mix. It is consumer-goods distribution rather than subscription software: repeat purchase, retail velocity, inventory availability, and promotional support determine whether customer and retailer acquisition compounds. The model forecasts units, average selling price, repeat rate, and gross margin separately for DTC, Amazon, and wholesale. It includes retail allowances, inventory, co-packing, marketing, fulfilment, channel-specific CAC, working capital, sales staffing, operating cash flow, and runway. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Modern, shame-free branding with playful-but-descriptive product names (e.g., So-Low Lotion, Tush Cush, Backside Slide, Organic Aloe, Motion Lotion, Toy Joy, Stroke, Feel Fresh). - "Clean" ingredient formulation: free from parabens, alcohol, sulfates, dyes, fragrance. - Three play categories: Solo play, Backside play, Object play. - Four product lines: Lubricants & Lotions, Objects (sex toys), Protection (condoms), Hygiene. - Value prop: approachable in-store/online experience vs. embarrassing incumbents; treats sex-care like skincare. - Data moat: proprietary sexual-preference database built from quizzes, orders, content, and browsing - used for personalised product recommendations and email marketing. ## Market - TAM: $108B global sexual wellness market opportunity - Market expansion: $33B incremental growth 2019–2027 - CAGR: 4.62% from 2019–2027 - Solo play sub-segment: 30.9% of total market - Key growth drivers cited: normalization of sexual health as wellness, Gen Z/Millennial openness, integrated content & education, shift in perception of lubes and toys. ## Revenue model - Channels (three-pronged): 1. DTC (hellocake.com) - launched 2020, direct-to-consumer e-commerce 2. Amazon marketplace 3. Retail wholesale - Walmart national partnership launching May 31, 2021 - Product categories: lubricants/lotions (core), objects (launching with Walmart), protection (condoms), hygiene - Top-selling product: So-Low Lotion (solo-play lotion for men) - Kit/bundle sales: backside exploration bundles lead kit sales ## Traction & metrics - DTC launched 2020 - TikTok responsible for 25% of MoM growth - CPA continues to decrease MoM; ROAS increases MoM - directional only, no absolute figures - 83.6% of customers surveyed say Cake helps them have a better sex life - Nearly zero ad rejections in past 90 days across Snapchat, Instagram, Google, TikTok - Press coverage: Well+Good, Fortune, Men's Health, Shape, Playboy, Hello Giggles, Daily Dot, Glossy, Hypebae, Galore, Beauty Independent - Note: Gen Z/Millennial survey - nearly half of Cake customers want to try new bedroom experiences ## Competition / moat - Incumbents: legacy mass-market brands with outdated packaging and harmful ingredients; adult specialty retailers (Adam & Eve) with embarrassing UX. - Moat: 1. Compliant paid advertising infrastructure - one of the only compliant sexual wellness ad stacks across Snapchat, Instagram, Google, TikTok, Hulu, Spotify. Collaborated with Hulu on national rollout; helped change Snapchat corporate policy. 2. Proprietary sexual preference data set - personalised for lifetime value, competitors operate with "little to no personalization for 50+ years." 3. Retail distribution - exclusive/priority positioning in Walmart's sex aisle reinvention. 4. Brand equity - Gen Z community, organic TikTok WOM, national press. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Company: Hello Cake, Inc. - Contextual clues: Deck is titled "Walmart + Cake" - likely a partnership/investor deck tied to the Walmart national rollout rather than a pure fundraising deck. --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** DTC + Wholesale Consumer Goods P&L. Cake has two distinct revenue streams - DTC (hellocake.com + Amazon, higher margin, direct CAC/LTV measurement) and retail wholesale (Walmart, lower margin, volume-driven). The model needs to split these channels with separate gross margin assumptions and growth drivers. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** 3 years monthly (Year 1–2 monthly, Year 3 annual summary). Monthly granularity is important to capture the Walmart launch ramp and seasonal DTC dynamics. - **Key drivers & assumptions:** | Driver | Value | | -- | -- | | DTC launch year | 2020 | | Walmart national launch date | May 31, 2021 | | Market CAGR (sexual wellness) | 4.62% | | TAM | $108B | | Solo play % of market | 30.9% | | TikTok share of MoM growth | 25% | | DTC AOV | $35–$45 | | DTC gross margin | 55–65% | | Wholesale gross margin (Walmart) | 30–40% | | DTC MoM growth rate | 15–25% early / tapering to 8% at scale | | Amazon take rate | 15% referral fee | | Walmart distribution: initial SKU count | 3–5 SKUs | | Walmart velocity / store / week | $5–$15 | | Walmart store count | ~4,700 US stores | | Blended CAC (DTC) | $20–$35 | | LTV (DTC) | $80–$120 | | Repeat purchase rate | 35–45% at 90 days | | COGS (product cost) | 30–40% of net revenue | | Marketing as % of DTC revenue | 25–35% scaling down to 15% | | Headcount / opex | seed-to-Series A consumer brand structure; ~10–20 FTEs | - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - **Base:** Walmart launch ramps to 2,000 stores in first 6 months, velocity at $8/store/week; DTC grows 15% MoM Y1 tapering to 8% Y2 - **Bull:** Walmart full 4,700-store national rollout by Q3 2021; DTC 25% MoM; objects category drives kit upsell; TikTok virality drives CAC below $20 - **Bear:** Walmart delays or reduces store count; DTC growth slows to 5% MoM; Amazon competition compresses DTC; ad compliance issues re-emerge - **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. Assumptions - all drivers, toggle-able by scenario 2. Revenue Build - DTC (hellocake.com), Amazon, Walmart (unit × velocity × stores), by month 3. COGS & Gross Profit - by channel 4. Marketing P&L - CAC, ROAS, paid spend, organic TikTok attribution 5. Operating Expenses - headcount, G&A, logistics/fulfilment 6. Income Statement (monthly + annual summary) 7. Unit Economics - CAC, LTV, LTV/CAC, payback period by channel 8. Walmart Ramp Model - store count rollout schedule, SKU velocity, sell-through 9. KPI Dashboard - MoM revenue, blended gross margin, CAC trend, ROAS trend ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Cake financial model free? Yes. The Cake model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.