# Cowboy Financial Model Belgian DTC e-bike company selling connected electric bikes with a companion app and recurring subscription services - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/cowboy - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/cowboy.xlsx - Category: Hardware/Deep-tech - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: Series C - Funding: $80M - Founded: 2022 - Geography: 12 countries across Europe and the US [DECK, slide 7] - Customer: B2C ## About the company Cowboy is a Belgian direct-to-consumer connected e-bike company with a companion app and recurring services. Its proposition combines premium urban mobility hardware with software-led ownership, allowing the company to extend the customer relationship beyond the initial bicycle purchase. The economics blend hardware and service. Bikes sold and average selling price establish the installed base, while subscriptions, service, and potentially financing can deepen lifetime value; inventory, warranty, delivery, and acquisition cost can quickly erode margin if demand or operations are misjudged. Model bikes sold by market, ASP, hardware gross margin, subscription attach, service revenue, installed base, and repeat or referral activity. Include manufacturing, shipping, inventory, warranty, retail or DTC marketing, app operations, and support costs. Demand growth, price, gross margin, subscription penetration, CAC, service cost, and retention should drive scenarios. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Hero product: Cowboy 4 e-bike - Red Dot "Best of the Best" winner 2019 & 2021 - Key hardware differentiators: iconic design, automatic transmission, removable battery, wireless charging - Integrated companion app (iOS/Android): bike unlock/key, GPS tracking, route mapping, crash detection, brake lights, ride analytics (25+ data points/sec), social leaderboard, community features - Value claims: 2x faster than cars in large cities, 10x smaller carbon footprint per mile vs. car, psychological health boost - 70%+ bikes recovered after theft via "Find My Bike" - Test rides delivered direct to door in 75+ cities worldwide ## Market - TAM stated as $800bn+ - no methodology or source breakdown shown for this figure; cited as "Huge TAM supported by generational shift in user habits" - Supporting macro context cited (not quantified as SAM/SOM): - 60% of car trips are below 5 miles - Average city traffic speed <10 mph in large European cities - 22% of global GHG emissions from transportation - Cities investing heavily in cycling infrastructure (Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, New York) ## Revenue model Three revenue streams explicitly stated: 1. **Bike sales (hardware)** - primary revenue; ASP not disclosed in deck 2. **Accessory sales** - mentioned as a revenue stream; pricing not disclosed 3. **Subscription services** (recurring revenue): - Theft insurance: €10/month - launched 2019 - Cowboy Care (all-inclusive maintenance): €20/month - launched 2021 Channel: Direct-to-consumer (DTC) - own website/app; test rides delivered to door; no retail channel mentioned explicitly though "Retail" section header appears on slide 25 ## Traction & metrics - 100,000 Riders (target by 2023) - note: framed as a goal, not confirmed current figure - $80m Series C raised - 70+ NPS overall - 76 NPS test ride experience; 70 NPS after-sales experience - 12 countries (Europe + US) - 75+ cities for direct test rides - 70% bike recovery rate after theft using Find My Bike ## Unit economics - "Strong unit economics" and "increasing average revenue per user" referenced - no figures provided ## Competition / moat Moat framing from deck: - Superior product: best ride-feel + connected app (claimed industry leader) - Strong brand: aspirational + 70+ NPS - Network effects: connected community/leaderboard creates switching costs and viral loops - Built to scale: proven go-to-market + robust manufacturing and supply chain - Red Dot "Best of the Best" design awards (2019, 2021) as external validation ## Team & funding ask / use of funds **Team:** - Adrien Roose - Founder / CEO - Tanguy Goretti - Founder / VP Software - Karim Slaoui - Founder / VP Hardware Tech - Alexander Cram - CFO (prior: Onfido) - Benoit Simeray - CMO (prior: Jawbone) - Vincent de Gaultier - VP Manufacturing (prior: Toyota) - Marsha Meredith - VP Creative (prior: Aesop) - Charles Van Haverbeke - VP Operations (prior: Uber) - Ross McCallum - VP Hardware Engineering (prior: Philips) **Funding history:** | Round | Amount | Lead investor | | -- | -- | -- | | Pre-Seed | $0.8m | Hardware Club / HCVC | | Seed | $2.8m | Index Ventures (Martin Mignot) | | Series A | $11m | Tiger Global (Lee Fixel) | | Series B | $26m | Exor Seeds (Noam Ohana) | | Series C | $80m | Siam Capital (Sita Chantramonklasri) | **Total raised:** ~$120.6m across all rounds --- ## Recommended financial model **Archetype + why:** DTC hardware + subscription ("razor-and-blade" variant). Primary model should be a **3-statement operating model** with a dedicated **subscription ARR build** layered on top. Revenue splits across: (1) hardware (bike + accessories - one-time), (2) subscription (theft insurance + Cowboy Care - recurring MRR/ARR). The subscription layer is the key long-term value driver and needs its own cohort logic. This is not M&A or SPAC. **Forecast horizon & granularity:** - 5 years (2022–2026), monthly for Y1–Y2, quarterly for Y3–Y5 - Series C context implies investor wants to see path to profitability and subscription scale **Key drivers & assumptions:** *Volume* - Bike unit sales (starting base): ~20,000–30,000 units/year at time of deck (Series C, 100k rider target by 2023 implies ~60–80k cumulative riders at raise; growth rate to be modelled) - Unit growth rate Y1–Y5: 40% YoY Y1–Y2, stepping down to 25% Y3, 15% Y4–Y5 - consistent with Series C growth-stage hardware company; needs validation against actual prior-year data not provided - Geography mix: 80% Europe / 20% US at start, shifting toward 50/50 by Y5 given Series C narrative *Pricing* - ASP (bike): ~€2,000–2,500 (Cowboy 4 is premium urban e-bike; comparable DTC e-bikes; no deck figure) - Accessories attach rate and ASP: 15% of bike buyers purchase accessories, ~€100 average basket - Theft insurance: €10/month - Cowboy Care maintenance: €20/month *Subscription* - Subscription attach rate (% of riders on at least one plan): 30% at launch, growing to 55% by Y5 - no actuals in deck - Mix theft vs. care: 60/40 theft/care initially (insurance launched 2019 has head start) - Churn rate: 8% annual - no actuals in deck; benchmark for hardware-linked subscription *Unit economics* - Hardware gross margin: 30–35% - DTC premium e-bike; no COGS disclosed - Subscription gross margin: 65–70% - primarily software + insurance underwriting cost + maintenance labour - Blended gross margin improves as subscription mix grows *Cost structure* - S&M: 20–25% of revenue (DTC brand with test-ride program in 75+ cities is expensive to operate) - R&D: 12–15% of revenue (ongoing hardware + app investment) - G&A: 8–10% of revenue - Manufacturing / COGS: per hardware margin assumption above **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - **Base:** 40% unit volume growth Y1, 30% attach rate on subscriptions, €2,200 ASP, 32% hardware GM - **Bull:** 55% unit growth (US scales faster), 50% attach rate by Y3, ASP holds, subscription churn 5% - **Bear:** 25% unit growth (supply chain / macro), 20% attach rate, ASP pressure to €1,900, hardware GM 27% **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers in one place) 2. Revenue build - three streams: bikes, accessories, subscriptions (with cohort/attach waterfall) 3. Subscription ARR bridge (new ARR, churn, expansion, net ARR) 4. COGS & gross profit by revenue stream 5. Opex detail (S&M, R&D, G&A, headcount) 6. Income statement (P&L) 7. Balance sheet 8. Cash flow statement (with capex for manufacturing tooling) 9. KPI summary: units sold, cumulative riders, subscribers, ARPU, LTV/CAC (when CAC data available), NPS (qualitative) 10. Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Cowboy financial model free? Yes. The Cowboy model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.