# HumanForest Financial Model Dockless e-bike sharing platform offering 20 free minutes daily, monetised through corporate brand partnerships and pay-per-minute rides. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/humanforest - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/humanforest.xlsx - Category: Marketplace - Model type: Marketplace / GMV - Funding round: Seed - Funding: $2M - Founded: 2020 - Geography: London launch; "London to the world" scale ambition stated [DECK, slide 14]. - Customer: B2C ## About the company HumanForest is a dockless e-bike platform that gives riders 20 free minutes each day in London. Additional riding time can be paid for directly or funded when users engage with offers from corporate brand partners. The company packages sponsored rides with digital marketing, loyalty, ESG, and mobility-data tools for partners. This makes the business more than a conventional pay-per-minute operator: corporate sponsorship subsidizes a portion of the consumer experience while brands receive a promotional and data platform. The model combines corporate partnership revenue with consumer ride revenue and fleet operations. Partners, sponsored minutes, active riders, paid minutes, and price per minute build top line; bike deployment, maintenance, charging, rebalancing, and depreciation drive cost. Fleet utilization, seasonality, and partner renewal are the critical variables. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Dockless electric e-bikes available across London. - Core hook: 20 free minutes per day for every user. - After the free allowance: users pay for additional minutes, OR unlock continued free riding by engaging with a partner brand's offer (buy a product/service). - Three platform pillars sold to corporate partners: 1. Digital Marketing & Loyalty - sponsored rides, geo-targeted push/in-app notifications, loyalty programmes, 14 communication channels. 2. ESG & Social Purpose - carbon offsetting, brand association, employee wellbeing. 3. Mobility Data - real-time partner dashboard, ML-based consumer segmentation and behavioural predictions. ## Market - Current daily cycling trips in London: +700k. - Potential daily cycling trips in London: +4.3m. - 80% of transport air pollution caused by cars. - Global capital investment in mobility (2015–2019) by broad category: - Shared-Mobility Services: $211bn invested 2015–2019. - Micro-mobility sub-sector: grew from $0.1bn (2010–14) to $14.1bn (2015–19), 5Y CAGR +176% - the fastest-growing segment in the chart. - Ride-hailing: $81.3bn (2015–19). - Last-mile logistics: $67.7bn (2015–19). - No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM breakdown provided for e-bike sharing or the partner advertising market. ## Revenue model Two revenue streams described: **Stream 1 - Corporate partnership / sponsored rides (B2B)** - Partner companies pay HumanForest to "fund" the 20 free daily minutes for users. - Partners receive access to the Digital Marketing, ESG, and Data platform in exchange. - Pricing benchmark given: "HumanForest monthly investment [for a partner] is equal to 15 billboards (96 Sheets), or 1–3 newspaper full-page ads, or 3–5 × 30-second TV ads". - No explicit £/month or CPM pricing disclosed. - Sector exclusivity offered to partners. **Stream 2 - Pay-per-minute rides (B2C)** - Users who exhaust their 20 free minutes can buy additional time. - No per-minute rate or pricing tier disclosed in deck. ## Traction & metrics - Dashboard screenshot shows a pilot/demo dataset dated 08/05/2012 → 12/31/2019 (likely sample data, not live operational figures): - Daily Active Users: 2 - Weekly Active Users: 4 - Monthly Active Users: 23 - KG of CO2 Avoided (gauge): 43.2 kg - No disclosed revenue, ride counts, fleet size, active partner count, or customer acquisition data. - The low DAU/WAU/MAU numbers in the dashboard are almost certainly demo/placeholder data rather than real operational scale. ## Competition / moat - Deck positions against traditional offline marketing (billboards, newspaper ads, TV) as the benchmark for partner spend - implying the moat is a lower-cost, more measurable, greener alternative channel for brands. - No direct competitor e-bike operators (Lime, Santander Cycles, Dott, Tier) named or benchmarked. - Implied moats: first-mover in ad-funded free-ride model in London; proprietary mobility data & ML platform; sector exclusivity for partners; ESG / brand-purpose positioning. - No IP, regulatory exclusivity, or network effect data disclosed. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Team: "Experienced management team" cited as investment rationale. No names, backgrounds, or org chart shown. - Investment thesis bullet points: 1. High-growth sector positioning. 2. Quickly scalable (London → world). 3. Positive EBITDA & high returns (aspirational, not evidenced). 4. Multiple income streams. 5. Large addressable market. 6. Experienced management team. 7. "It is now the opportunity." --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** Marketplace / platform P&L with two revenue lines - (a) B2B partnership subscription/sponsorship revenue and (b) B2C pay-per-ride revenue - layered on top of a shared micro-mobility operations model (fleet capex, maintenance, charging, rebalancing). This is closest to a **two-sided marketplace + ad-platform hybrid**, not pure SaaS. An operating 3-statement model is appropriate because fleet capex and working capital are material. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** 5 years (Year 1–5); monthly for Year 1–2, quarterly thereafter. Monthly is needed to track fleet ramp, partner onboarding, and seasonality (London cycling peaks in spring/summer). - **Key drivers & assumptions:** *Demand / ride volume* - Active fleet size (# e-bikes deployed): start at ~500 bikes, scale to 5,000+ by Year 3 based on London micro-mobility norms for a pilot operator. - Average rides per bike per day: 3–5 rides/bike/day (industry benchmark for dockless e-bikes in European cities). - Average ride duration: ~20 min (aligned with free tier; B2C top-up portion likely shorter). - % rides that are free-only (no top-up): 70–80%; remainder generate B2C revenue. *B2C revenue* - Pay-per-minute rate: £0.12–£0.15/min (consistent with London dockless competitors at time of deck). - Average top-up minutes per paying ride: 10 min → ~£1.20–£1.50 per paying ride. *B2B partnership revenue* - Number of active brand partners: 5 in Year 1, scaling to 20+ by Year 3. - Monthly fee per partner: £15,000–£25,000/month, anchored to the billboard/newspaper/TV ad benchmarks shown in slide 11 (15 billboards ≈ typical £15k–£20k/month in London outdoor media). - Sector exclusivity premium: small uplift for exclusive categories. *Operating costs* - Fleet capex per bike: £1,500–£2,000 (cargo e-bike with IoT). - Maintenance/repair per bike per year: 15–20% of capex. - Charging & logistics (rebalancing) per bike per day: £2–£4. - Depreciation: 3-year straight-line on bikes. - Staff (ops, tech, sales): ramp from ~10 FTE Year 1. - Insurance per bike per year: £200–£300. - Platform/tech hosting: modest SaaS-tier cloud costs. *London market size ceiling (from deck)* - Current daily trips: 700k - HumanForest addressable share 1–5% initially. - Potential daily trips: 4.3m - long-run bull case ceiling. - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - **Bear:** Slow partner sign-up (3 partners Year 1), low rides/bike/day (2.5), high churn of partners, no geographic expansion beyond London in 5 years. - **Base:** 5 partners Year 1 → 15 by Year 3; 4 rides/bike/day; 500 bikes Year 1 → 3,000 Year 3; one international city by Year 4. - **Bull:** Rapid partner pipeline (10 partners Year 1 from strong ESG demand); 6+ rides/bike/day; 1,000 bikes Year 1; two additional cities by Year 3; premium data product upsell. - **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. **Assumptions** - all drivers centralised, toggle for scenario. 2. **Fleet model** - bike count ramp, capex schedule, depreciation. 3. **Revenue build** - B2B partner revenue (partner count × monthly fee) and B2C ride revenue (rides × paying % × avg top-up value), monthly. 4. **Opex build** - staffing, charging, maintenance, insurance, platform costs. 5. **P&L (Income Statement)** - gross profit by revenue stream; EBITDA bridge. 6. **Balance sheet** - fleet assets, working capital (partner receivables). 7. **Cash flow statement** - capex timing critical (bike purchases front-loaded); operating cash flow. 8. **KPI dashboard** - rides/day, active partners, revenue per bike, EBITDA margin, CO2 offset (ESG reporting metric for partners). 9. **Scenario toggle** - Bear / Base / Bull switcher feeding all sheets. ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the HumanForest financial model free? Yes. The HumanForest model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.