# Keyway Financial Model Tech-enabled CRE transaction platform that buys commercial properties from SMB owners, packages them into portfolios, and sells to institutional investors. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/keyway - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/keyway.xlsx - Category: Marketplace - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: Seed - Funding: $15M - Founded: 2021 - Geography: United States (implied by D.R. Horton, Wells Fargo, Capital One references and "mid-market CRE transactions" language). - Customer: B2B ## About the company Keyway is a commercial-real-estate transaction platform that buys smaller properties from business owners, packages them into portfolios, and sells to institutional investors. Sellers receive a faster, standardized process, while the company uses technology for sourcing, underwriting, and digital closing. The business is a principal in the transaction rather than a pure marketplace: it acquires properties, holds them through packaging, and seeks profit from resale, financing, and potentially recurring asset-management economics. The deck refers to high margins and recurring revenue, but does not disclose fee rates or transaction volumes. The model tracks property acquisitions, average value, buy-side discount, hold period, portfolio assembly, and exit price to build transaction spread. Assets under management and recurring management fees are modeled separately. Capital deployment, debt funding, underwriting losses, and institutional investor demand are the decisive sensitivities. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Keyway buys commercial real estate from small and medium business owners (sub $10M properties) directly, offering a guaranteed, fast, low-cost close. - Process for sellers: submit business info → receive price + standard contract → single-visit DD → close with no contingencies. - Claims 90% reduction in transaction time vs. traditional process; zero fees to seller. - On the investor side: Keyway aggregates acquired single properties into portfolios sold to institutional investors as asset-backed, high-yield investments. - Tech stack: AI/ML for sourcing and underwriting, digital tools for application & closing, UX layer. - Traditional process pain points cited: ~20 showings over 3 months, 20% fall-through at LOI, 20% fall-through at financing, months-long timeline, high % fees. ## Market - $5T+ in commercial real estate properties in stock in target market (SMB CRE). - $300B+ in yearly mid-market CRE transactions. - Sub $10M deal size is the defined segment. - No SAM, SOM, or market growth rate provided. ## Revenue model - **Buy-side spread**: Keyway acquires properties from SMB sellers at a negotiated price (likely at a discount to market given guaranteed/fast close value prop), then resells or holds. - **Investor-side**: Aggregates properties into portfolios sold to institutional investors. Revenue likely from: (a) origination/transaction fee on investor placement, and/or (b) asset management fee on AUM, and/or (c) appreciation spread on portfolio sale. - Deck states "High margins, Recurring revenues" for Keyway - implying management fees or yield-spread income, not just one-time transaction fees. - No fee rates, take rates, or spread figures disclosed. "No fees" claim applies to sellers only. ## Traction & metrics - Transaction volume chart covers 2021–2024 with growing bar chart, but all values are redacted as "$X" - no actual numbers visible. - No customer count, deal count, ARR, revenue, or GMV figures disclosed anywhere in the deck. ## Unit economics - "High margins" claimed - no margin % given. - Transaction time reduced by 90% vs. traditional process - relevant to throughput capacity but not a unit economic figure. - Before/after transaction cost comparison shown on slide 7 as "X months & X% → X month & X%" - all values redacted. - No CAC, LTV, payback period, or spread data disclosed. ## Competition / moat - Traditional CRE brokers implied as the incumbent (multi-month process, high fees, multiple showings). - Moat claimed: AI/ML underwriting, proprietary UX, digital closing tools, guaranteed close offer. - No named competitors or differentiation matrix shown. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Co-Founder & CEO: Matías Recchia - Harvard Business School, McKinsey, iguanafiz. - Co-Founder & COO: Sebastian Wilner - Harvard Business School, Google. - Senior team alumni: Goldman Sachs, Jamestown, Google, Brookfield, J.P. Morgan, Capital One, Wells Fargo, Rappi, D.R. Horton, Mercado Libre, Bloomberg, Delivery Hero. ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why**: CRE principal/marketplace hybrid - **Transaction Volume + Spread P&L model** with an AUM / recurring management fee overlay. Keyway acts as principal buyer (acquires properties), so the model must track: (1) acquisition cost per property, (2) hold period, (3) sale price to investors, and (4) portfolio AUM under management. This is not a pure SaaS or marketplace; it is closer to a specialty finance / PropTech principal model, similar to an iBuyer P&L. - **Forecast horizon & granularity**: 4 years annual (2021–2024 per deck roadmap), monthly for Year 1–2 to track deal pipeline ramp. - **Key drivers & assumptions**: - Number of properties acquired per month - Average property value (sub $10M); - Buy-side discount to market / acquisition spread - Hold period before portfolio sale to investors - Investor-side take rate (origination fee or spread) - AUM management fee on retained portfolios - Transaction cost per deal (legal, DD, diligence) - Gross margin on each transaction] - CAC for sellers - Headcount ramp (underwriters, deal managers, tech) - OpEx: platform build + maintenance, G&A - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex)**: - Base: ~10 deals/month by end Y3, $3M avg deal size, 7% buy-side spread, 1.5% investor fee - Bull: 20 deals/month by Y3, higher avg deal size ($5M), faster hold period, institutional investor demand strong - Bear: deal ramp slower (regulatory, capital constraints), spread compression, hold period extends (capital tied up), recession-driven CRE volume decline - **Required sheets / outputs**: 1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers in one place) 2. Deal pipeline (monthly acquisition count × avg deal size = transaction volume) 3. Revenue build (buy-side spread revenue + investor-side fee revenue + management fee income) 4. Cost of acquisition (per-deal transaction costs, holding costs) 5. Gross profit by revenue stream 6. OpEx (headcount, tech, G&A) 7. EBITDA / operating P&L 8. Balance sheet sketch (properties held on balance sheet during hold period - capital intensity) 9. Capital requirements (how much equity/debt needed to fund property acquisitions) 10. Transaction volume chart (2021–2024, matching slide 9 format) 11. Scenario toggle ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Keyway financial model free? Yes. The Keyway model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.