# Little Lunch Financial Model Organic convenience food brand (soups, sauces, stocks) sold via retail and own e-commerce in DACH. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/little-lunch - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/little-lunch.xlsx - Category: Consumer/DTC - Model type: Unit-economics / DTC - Funding round: Seed - Funding: $3.12M - Founded: 2022 - Geography: DACH (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) primary; European expansion planned. - Customer: B2C ## About the company Little Lunch is an organic convenience-food brand selling soups, sauces, and stocks across DACH. It combines packaged-food retail with direct e-commerce and teleshopping, offering convenient meal solutions rather than a recurring subscription proposition. Retail wholesale and owned online channels have different economics: trade sales provide distribution but limited consumer data, while the own shop and Amazon can carry higher margin and direct customer insight. European expansion is planned beyond the core Germany, Austria, and Switzerland market. The model separates retail and DTC revenue, forecasting doors, velocity, online orders, SKU mix, and price. Outsourced manufacturing, input costs, trade spend, fulfilment, marketing, and working capital determine gross profit, cash requirements, and the effect of channel mix. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Core product: shelf-stable organic soups & stews in glass jars - "pure organic, great taste, for you". - Expanding into pasta sauces & meal makers, stocks & broths (described as "new" categories at time of deck). - Value prop: organic + convenience + no preservatives + sustainable packaging; affordable relative to premium organic niche. - Feedback-driven product development via DTC customer data, enabling fast iteration. ## Market - Organic soups & stews (DACH retail + drugstore, excl. discount/food service/online): €24M market size. - Fresh Ready Meals: €145M. - Pasta Sauce & Meal Makers: €148M. - Combined addressable market across the three segments: ~€317M. - Market described as "fast growing $bn" convenience food market at macro level - no specific growth rate cited for these segments. - Little Lunch market share in organic soups & stews (DACH): 56%. - Market leader position achieved "in only three years" (i.e., from ~2017 to 2020). - No SAM/SOM breakdown or category growth CAGR given beyond Little Lunch's own revenue CAGR. ## Revenue model Channels: 1. **Retail** - supermarkets, drugstores; listed in 74% of all German supermarkets, drugstores, and cash & carry markets. 2. **Online** - own online shop + Amazon. 3. **Teleshopping** - HSE24 (TV home shopping). Units / SKU count: Multiple SKUs across soups, sauces, stocks (exact count not disclosed). Manufacturing: Outsourced externally. Distribution/logistics: Outsourced externally. ## Traction & metrics - Revenue CAGR: 42% from 2015 to 2020. - Market share (organic soups & stews, DACH): 56% in 2020. - Retail distribution: 74% of German supermarkets, drugstores, and cash & carry. - Employees: 28. - Founded: 2014. - Social media (at time of deck): - Facebook: 71k fans, YoY +34% - Pinterest: 60k monthly users, YoY +1,400% - Instagram: 49k followers, YoY +43% - Awards: Top Brand 2018 (shelf-stable soups & stews), Product of the Year 2017, Fastest Growing eCommerce Company 2017, Tasty Award 2019, German Brand Award 2020. - Brand image: ranked higher than Competitor 1 and Competitor 2 on Sympathy, Quality, Trendsetting, Premium Recipe, Relevance (Innofact AG Brand Awareness Study, Dec 2018). ## Competition / moat - Moat: First-mover / category definer for shelf-stable organic soups in DACH; 56% market share by 2020. - Competitors referenced but unnamed (Competitor 1, Competitor 2 in brand study). - Competitive advantages cited: brand love/NPS, inhouse e-commerce capability (developers, UX, performance marketing), proprietary customer data independent of Nielsen. - Sustainability positioning (zero carbon by 2021, >95% recyclable packaging, no plastic policy) as differentiation. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Co-founders / Co-CEOs: Denis Gibisch and Daniel Gibisch. - Leadership team: Head of Brand & Marketing, Head of Sales, Head of Operations, Head of Product, Head of Finance. - Team tenure: working together 4+ years. - HQ: Augsburg, Germany; 600 sq m office. - Shareholders: 6. - Funding ask: Amount and round type not disclosed in deck. - Use of funds: Not explicitly stated; implied uses are European expansion, new product categories (pasta sauce, fresh ready meals), and continued e-commerce investment. --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** DTC + Retail CPG revenue model (multichannel P&L). Little Lunch has two structurally different revenue streams - (A) retail/wholesale (sold into trade at a trade price, no direct consumer relationship) and (B) DTC online (own shop + Amazon, higher margin, full consumer data). These must be modelled separately to capture the channel mix shift and gross margin differences. A 3-statement model is warranted given the manufacturing outsourcing (COGS driven by volume + input costs) and the investor audience. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** 5 years (2021–2025), annual, with a monthly Year 1 tab for cash flow visibility. - **Key drivers & assumptions:** *Revenue drivers:* - Retail revenue: organic soup market size €24M × market share % (base: hold 56%; bull: expand to 65% - market leader with strong distribution; bear: erosion to 48% - new entrants) - Retail channel mix expansion: pasta sauce/meal makers category ramp (market €148M) - Year 1 penetration 3–5% of that market - DTC revenue: grow as % of total revenue - currently not disclosed; assume DTC is 15–25% of total given "growing part of revenue" language; 42% CAGR applied blended but may decelerate as retail matures - European expansion revenue: from Year 2 or 3 - greenfield, minimal contribution early *Margin drivers:* - Gross margin: ~45–55% for DTC (branded organic food with outsourced manufacturing); ~25–35% for retail (trade pricing). Exact figures not in deck - must be confirmed with company. - COGS structure: raw materials + outsourced manufacturing + packaging - Blended gross margin will shift with channel mix *Cost drivers:* - Marketing/performance marketing: 15–25% of DTC revenue (inhouse capability cited) - Headcount: 28 currently; grow to 40–50 by Year 3 as European expansion starts - Logistics/fulfilment: outsourced; proportional to volume *Working capital:* - Inventory: shelf-stable product; 60–90 day stock cover - Retail receivables: 45–60 day debtor days (standard DACH retail trade terms) - DTC: near-zero receivables - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - Base: 42% revenue CAGR continues 2021–2022, then decelerates to 20–25% as market matures; channel mix stable; European expansion from Year 3. - Bull: Pasta sauce/ready meal categories accelerate (combined market €293M); DTC grows faster; European expansion Year 2. - Bear: Retail market share erosion from competition; DTC growth slows; input cost inflation compresses margins. - **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers centralized) 2. Revenue build (by channel: retail by category, DTC, teleshopping) 3. P&L / Income Statement (Revenue → Gross Profit → EBITDA → EBIT → Net Income) 4. Working capital & cash flow 5. Balance sheet (optional for investor-ready version) 6. Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear) 7. Summary KPI dashboard (Revenue, GM%, EBITDA%, market share by category) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Little Lunch financial model free? Yes. The Little Lunch model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.