# Numan Financial Model CQC-regulated UK digital clinic for men treating erectile dysfunction, hair loss, and premature ejaculation via an app + prescription delivery model. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/numan - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/numan.xlsx - Category: Health-tech - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: Series A - Funding: $13M - Founded: 2020 - Geography: United Kingdom (launched Feb 2019); European expansion signalled in summary slide. - Customer: B2B2C ## About the company Numan is a CQC-regulated UK digital clinic for men's health, treating erectile dysfunction, hair loss, and premature ejaculation. It combines online acquisition, clinician-led prescribing, and delivery of treatment in a consumer healthcare relationship that can recur over time. Ongoing prescription fulfilment forms the recurring core, supported by OTC products and online acquisition. Commercial performance depends on consultation conversion, refill cadence, cross-sell, retention, compliant clinical capacity, pharmacy operations, and customer trust in a sensitive category. The model forecasts paying members, prescription conversion, refill cadence, OTC attach, churn, clinician and pharmacy cost, and CAC. It includes fulfilment, regulatory overhead, marketing, gross margin by product line, working capital, operating burn, and runway. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - App-based digital clinic: consultations, health tracking (sleep, blood, sexual health), medication reminders, and clinician video chat - all in one platform. - Initial conditions: erectile dysfunction (ED/Tadalafil), hair loss, premature ejaculation (delay spray/wipes). - Regulated by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) - claimed as the only CQC-registered player in this UK men's digital health vertical. - Blood-test kit + supplement fulfilment (branded packaging visible). - Platform ambition: connect patients with stakeholders for development and distribution of new products (slide 09 - expansion beyond initial three conditions). ## Revenue model - Membership/subscription model: customers described as "paying members." - Revenue generated from ongoing prescription medication fulfilment (recurring), supplemented by OTC products (delay spray, supplements) and potentially consultation fees. - Channel: 100% direct online (D2C); no offline retail presence mentioned. - Gross margin metric referenced as "GMII" (likely Gross Margin II, net of fulfilment/COGS), described as "stable" alongside revenue growth. ## Traction & metrics All specific numbers are redacted in the shared deck version. The following metrics are confirmed to exist but values are blurred: - Revenue: grew materially over the 6 months Feb–Nov 2019; monthly revenue shown Aug 2019–Jul 2020 in slide 05 alongside EBITDA - trajectory upward, exact figures redacted. - CAC: shown declining from a peak in March 2019 through November 2019; reduction in CAC stated as a headline but magnitude redacted. - CPA (cost per acquisition): tracked alongside CAC, converging downward by Nov 2019. - Conversion rate: increased from launch (March) through October; upward S-curve trajectory visible, exact % redacted. - At 18 months post-launch (i.e. ~Aug 2020): - 12-month LTV/CAC ratio: redacted - Payback period (months): redacted - ARR: £[X]M - exact figure redacted - Paying members: redacted - EBITDA: negative (implied by "capital-efficient" framing and early stage), shown as separate series on revenue chart - magnitude redacted. ## Unit economics - LTV/CAC (12-month basis): exists and is highlighted as a KPI; value redacted. - CAC: declining trend Feb–Nov 2019; absolute level redacted. - CPA: tracked alongside CAC; converging to similar level by Nov 2019. - Payback period: stated in months; value redacted. - Gross margin: "stable GMII" referenced alongside revenue growth - implies relatively fixed fulfilment cost structure. - No explicit LTV build (ARPU × churn × margin) shown in deck. ## Competition / moat Five competitor buckets identified: 1. Public health (NHS) - free but long wait times, repeat visits required, limited prescribing. 2. Private clinics - high quality but high friction and cost; not accessible. 3. Online pharmacy incumbents - large but bloated, rely on offline presence, cannot innovate efficiently. 4. Telemedicine 1.0 - focused on acute care, limited breadth. 5. Horizontal funded startups - focus on generic distribution and lifestyle branding; lack depth of proposition. 6. Funded vertical startups - hard to scale multiple brands; difficulty extending patient relationship. Moat claims: CQC registration (only player), breadth of proposition (conditions + app + lab + consultations), patient data flywheel implied by platform slide. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Funding ask: Not quantified in deck. Implied by pitch context. ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why**: DTC subscription / recurring revenue P&L model with cohort-level unit economics. Numan is a medication subscription business: customers pay monthly for ongoing prescriptions. The right model is a cohort-based MRR/ARR build - new member adds by cohort, churn, ARPU, gross margin, then CAC/marketing spend layered in to show payback and LTV. Secondary revenue stream (OTC products, one-time purchases) can be a separate line. Not a pure SaaS ARR model (physical fulfilment and COGS matter heavily), not a marketplace. Closest archetype: DTC health subscription with gross margin bridge. - **Forecast horizon & granularity**: Monthly actuals (Aug 2019–Jul 2020 implied by deck), then monthly forecast 24 months forward, rolling to annual summary. Monthly granularity required to model cohort retention curves and CAC trends. - **Key drivers & assumptions**: - New paying members added per month - Monthly churn rate - ARPU per month (blended across conditions/SKUs) - Gross margin % (GMII - medication + fulfilment net of COGS) - CAC - blended, declining trend visible; absolute level redacted - CPA vs CAC split (paid media efficiency) - Conversion rate (visitor/lead → paying member) - Marketing spend (primary CAC lever) - Headcount / opex ramp - EBITDA margin path - Expansion conditions revenue (post slide-08 phase) - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear)**: - Flex variables: monthly churn, new member growth rate, CAC trajectory, ARPU. - Bear: churn elevated (10%+), CAC stays flat, ARPU pressured by competitor pricing. - Base: churn moderate (6%), CAC continues declining per deck trend, ARPU stable. - Bull: churn low (3–4%), CAC continues falling, condition expansion drives ARPU uplift and cross-sell. - **Required sheets / outputs**: 1. Assumptions dashboard (all input levers, toggle for scenario) 2. Cohort model - monthly new member cohorts × retention curve → active members over time 3. Revenue build - active members × ARPU (subscription) + OTC/one-time revenue 4. Gross margin bridge - revenue → GMII (net of COGS/fulfilment) 5. CAC & marketing spend - new members × CAC, plus organic/paid split if data available 6. P&L - gross profit less S&M, R&D, G&A → EBITDA 7. Unit economics summary - LTV (12M and lifetime), CAC, payback period, LTV/CAC ratio by cohort vintage 8. Cash & runway - cumulative cash burn, months of runway given raise 9. KPI dashboard - MRR, ARR, active members, churn, CAC, LTV/CAC (monthly) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Numan financial model free? Yes. The Numan model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.