# Oklo SPAC Financial Model Oklo Inc. is a pre-revenue advanced nuclear fission company merging with AltC Acquisition Corp. (NYSE: ALCC) via SPAC to fund first commercial deployment of its Aurora small modular reactor powerhouse. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/oklo-spac - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/oklo-spac.xlsx - Category: Climate/Energy - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: SPAC - Funding: $850M - Founded: 2024 - Geography: United States (Idaho National Laboratory site secured; Southern Ohio pipeline). International expansion not in scope for near term. - Customer: B2B ## About the company Oklo is developing 15 and 50 MWe Aurora advanced fission powerhouses that it intends to own and operate. The reactors are designed to sell electricity and heat under long-term PPAs to data centres, industrial users, defence, utilities, and off-grid customers without upfront customer capex. The company was pre-revenue at its SPAC presentation, with more than 700 MWe of non-binding interest and an Idaho first-deployment target of 2026 or 2027. It also identifies future fuel recycling, but this remains upside rather than a current operating revenue source. Model the transaction separately from plant operations. At plant level, forecast deployment count, capacity factor, PPA price, construction and fuel capex, refuelling, opex, and forty-year cash flows for both reactor sizes; then consolidate corporate burn and financing. SPAC redemptions, regulatory delay, and construction timing are decisive sensitivities. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Aurora powerhouse: liquid metal fast fission reactor. Two sizes: 15 MWe and 50 MWe (scalable). - Design life: 40 years. Estimated construction time: <1 year. Footprint: <2 acres. - Key differentiators vs. conventional nuclear: smaller scale, simpler design, passive safety, factory fabrication, no upfront customer capex, quick build. - Fuel flexibility: operates on fresh HALEU or recycled spent nuclear fuel. EBR-II (1964–1994) is the demonstrated ancestor. - Second business line (upside): fuel recycling - reprocess spent nuclear fuel for resale and internal supply; target commercial-scale facility by early 2030s. - Target customers: data centers, defense, factories, industrial, off-grid/rural, utilities. --- ## Market - U.S. nuclear capacity stagnant for 30+ years at ~100 GW while U.S. electricity consumption grew >40% (2.8T kWh in 1990 → 4.1T kWh in 2022). - To achieve net-zero U.S. grid by 2050: up to 770 GW of new clean baseload required; nuclear could supply ~200 GW of that, implying a ~3x increase from current ~100 GW operating fleet to ~300 GW by 2050. - Deck does not provide explicit TAM/SAM/SOM dollar figures for Oklo's addressable slice. - Policy tailwinds: IRA investment and production tax credits for nuclear; $700M for advanced nuclear fuel; $250B DOE Loan Program Office; FY23/FY24 Appropriations providing $3B for nuclear support; ADVANCE Act. - Customer pipeline: >700 MWe under non-binding indications of interest. --- ## Revenue model - Primary: owner-operator - Oklo builds, owns, and operates Aurora powerhouses and sells electricity/heat directly to customers under long-term PPAs. No upfront capital cost to customer. Revenue is recurring and contracted. - Pricing (NOAK illustrative): - 15 MWe: ~$105/MWh average real power price → ~$13M annual revenue per plant - 50 MWe: ~$90/MWh average real power price → ~$36M annual revenue per plant - Capacity factor assumed: 92% (generating ~121,000 MWh/yr for 15 MWe; ~403,000 MWh/yr for 50 MWe). - Secondary (future, not modeled at close): fuel recycling services, byproduct sales, specialty isotopes. - No revenue or signed contracts in place at time of presentation. --- ## Traction & metrics - $0 revenue - pre-commercial, no binding customer contracts. - Customer interest: >700 MWe under non-binding indications of interest (not binding LOIs). - Projects in pipeline: 3 sites - 1 × 15 MWe at Idaho National Laboratory (site + fuel secured; first electricity target 2026/27) - 2 × 15 MWe in Southern Ohio via SODI partnership (non-binding, announced May 2023) - Team: 51 employees including 8 PhDs (16%) and 20 Masters in Engineering/Science (39%). ~10% are former NRC staff. - Regulatory: first-ever advanced reactor Combined License Application (COLA) submitted in March 2020; NRC denied in 2022 (requested more info); new application targeted late 2024/early 2025. 9 formal pre-application meetings, 70+ coordination meetings, 50+ licensing documents shared. - DOE awards: 4 cost-share awards for fuel recycling R&D. - Seed funding from Y Combinator (2014), Series A led by Data Collective & Mithril (2015). Sam Altman lead investor and Chairman since 2015. --- ## Unit economics **15 MWe Aurora (NOAK)** - Revenue from power sales (40 yr): $508M - Operating expenses (40 yr): $120M - Plant profit (40 yr): $388M (75% life-of-plant margin) - Capital costs (40 yr total): $107M - Initial plant construction: $24M - Initial fuel load: $33M (4,750 kg HALEU @ $7,000/kg) - Refueling (3× over 40 yr, 2,375 kg each): $50M - Plant cash flow (40 yr): $281M (2.5x capital costs) - Annual plant cash flow (steady state): $10M/yr - Annual cash margin (steady state): 76.4% - FOAK variant: plant cost ~$34M, annual opex fixed $3.8M, variable $6/MWh **50 MWe Aurora (NOAK)** - Revenue from power sales (40 yr): $1,452M - Operating expenses (40 yr): $288M - Plant profit (40 yr): $1,163M (80% life-of-plant margin) - Capital costs (40 yr total): $198M - Initial plant construction: $61M - Initial fuel load: $55M (7,800 kg HALEU @ $7,000/kg) - Refueling (3× over 40 yr, 3,900 kg each): $82M - Plant cash flow (40 yr): $966M (5.0x capital costs) - Annual plant cash flow (steady state): $29M/yr - Annual cash margin (steady state): 80.1% - FOAK variant: plant cost ~$86M, annual opex fixed $7.2M, variable $5/MWh **Corporate-level costs** - G&A: ~$19.5M in 2024, scaling to ~$34.5M by 2027 (pre-deployment); long-term ~20% of power revenue - Manufacturing facility capex: ~$40M by 2030 - Maintenance capex: ~10% of initial plant capital cost every 10 years - Occupancy expense: ~5% of power revenue - Working capital: ~4% of power revenue --- ## Competition / moat - Comparable SMR/advanced nuclear peers (all larger/more expensive): X-energy (320 MWe, pre-money $1.8B at announcement), NuScale (924 MWe), NetPower (natural gas, 300 MWe). Oklo prices at $0.85B pre-money. - Moat claims: smaller/cheaper design prevents incumbents from replicating model; owner-operator model eliminates customer capex barrier; fuel recycling capability is unique in U.S. - Risk: no commercial fast reactor in operation today; regulatory precedent does not yet exist; technology not NRC-licensed. - Nuclear energy analogs used for revenue model comparables: Orsted (~$40B market cap), Brookfield (~$14B), Northland Power (~$5B), Neoen (~$5B). --- ## Team & funding ask / use of funds **Team** - Jacob DeWitte: Co-Founder & CEO; PhD nuclear engineering, MIT; 15+ years nuclear; prior GE, Sandia, Urenco, US Naval Nuclear Lab. - Caroline Cochran: Co-Founder & COO; MS nuclear engineering, MIT; 15+ years nuclear; prior Office of Secretary of Defense, DOE Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee. - Sam Altman: Chairman since 2015; Co-Founder & CEO OpenAI; Former President Y Combinator. - Michael Klein: Co-Founder & Chairman, Churchill Capital / M. Klein & Company. **SPAC transaction structure** - AltC (NYSE: ALCC) combines with Oklo at $850M pre-money equity value - AltC cash-in-trust: $515.8M (as of June 30, 2023) - Estimated cash to balance sheet after fees: ~$478M - Total pro forma equity: $1,366M; 143M shares outstanding - Existing Oklo shareholders: 85M shares (60%); AltC shareholders: 58M shares (40%) - Earnout: up to 15M additional shares for Oklo shareholders vesting at $12/$14/$16 within 5 years - No cash distributed to Oklo shareholders; 100% of net proceeds to Oklo balance sheet - Sponsor: 100% of founder shares subject to performance vesting; 3-year staggered lock-up - Use of proceeds: fund first Aurora deployment, manufacturing ramp, regulatory work, G&A --- ## Recommended financial model **Archetype + why:** This is a **SPAC/de-SPAC deal model** combined with a **project-finance / infrastructure operating forecast**. It is NOT a standard operating startup model. The entity has no revenue; the investment thesis is a long-dated capital deployment into a regulated utility-like asset base. The appropriate model has two layers: 1. **Transaction layer (SPAC model)**: sources & uses, pro forma cap table, earnout waterfall, sponsor promote economics, redemption sensitivity, cash-to-balance-sheet under various redemption scenarios. 2. **Operating layer (infrastructure / project-finance)**: unit-level plant P&L × deployment count, corporate P&L overlay, funding runway model. Mirrors how renewable energy IPP (independent power producer) models work. **Forecast horizon & granularity:** - Quarterly through 2027 (pre-revenue; tracks burn, regulatory milestones, first deployment) - Annual 2028–2040 (ramp of plant fleet, cash flow build-up) - Per-plant unit economics run at both 15 MWe and 50 MWe simultaneously **Key drivers & assumptions:** *Transaction / cap table:* - Pre-money equity value: $850M - AltC trust: $516M; shares at $10.00 - Redemption rate: 0% base case, 50% / 100% for bear/stress - Fees & expenses: ~$38M - Earnout thresholds: $12, $14, $16/share within 5 years of close *Plant unit economics (15 MWe NOAK):* - Plant capex: $24M (NOAK); $34M (FOAK) - Initial fuel: $33M / 4,750 kg; HALEU price $7,000/kg - Refueling: $50M total over 40 yr (2,375 kg every 10 yr) - Annual revenue: ~$13M @ $105/MWh, 92% capacity factor - Annual fixed opex: $2.4M (NOAK); $3.8M (FOAK) - Annual variable opex: $5.00/MWh (NOAK); $6.00/MWh (FOAK) - Maintenance capex: 10% of initial plant cost every 10 yr - Cash margin (steady state): 76.4% *Plant unit economics (50 MWe NOAK):* - Plant capex: $61M (NOAK); $86M (FOAK) - Initial fuel: $55M / 7,800 kg - Refueling: $82M total over 40 yr (3,900 kg every 10 yr) - Annual revenue: ~$36M @ $90/MWh, 92% capacity factor - Annual fixed opex: $5.6M (NOAK); $7.2M (FOAK) - Annual variable opex: $4.00/MWh (NOAK); $5.00/MWh (FOAK) - Cash margin (steady state): 80.1% *Fleet ramp (deployment count):* - 2026: 1 plant (15 MWe, FOAK at INL) - 2027: potential 2 additional (Southern Ohio) - Year 2–10 ramp: deck shows illustrative Low/High deployment scenarios (charts show 0–150 units per year by Year 10, axes unlabeled precisely) - NOAK status assumed at run-rate of ~20 units - Ramp shape: *Corporate cost structure:* - G&A: $19.5M (2024) → $34.5M (2027) pre-deployment; then ~20% of power revenue - Manufacturing facility capex: ~$40M cumulative by 2030 - Occupancy: 5% of power revenue - Working capital: 4% of power revenue *Fuel recycling:* - Commercial-scale facility targeted early 2030s - Revenue/cost impact: not quantified in deck; modeled as upside optionality toggle *Discount rate / WACC:* *Power price:* **Scenarios:** | Variable | Bear | Base | Bull | | -- | -- | -- | -- | | SPAC redemption rate | 80% | 0% | 0% | | First deployment year | 2028 | 2026/27 | 2026 | | Fleet ramp (plants/yr by 2035) | Low curve | Mid curve | High curve | | HALEU price ($/kg) | $9,000 | $7,000 | $5,500 | | Power price ($/MWh, 15MWe) | $85 | $105 | $120 | | NOAK plant capex (15 MWe) | $35M | $24M | $22M | | Fuel recycling contribution | None | None | Meaningful from 2032 | **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. **Transaction summary**: sources & uses, pro forma cap table, redemption sensitivity table (0/25/50/75/100% redemption → cash to balance sheet, ownership %) 2. **Earnout waterfall**: shares vesting at $12/$14/$16 per trigger 3. **Unit economics - 15 MWe**: single-plant 40-year P&L and cash flow (FOAK and NOAK versions) 4. **Unit economics - 50 MWe**: single-plant 40-year P&L and cash flow (FOAK and NOAK versions) 5. **Fleet model**: cumulative plant count by year (Low/High ramp); aggregate revenue, opex, plant capex, plant cash flow 6. **Corporate P&L**: fleet revenue less G&A, occupancy, working capital, manufacturing capex → corporate EBITDA and net cash flow 7. **Funding runway**: starting balance sheet cash post-close (~$478M), quarterly burn through first deployment, time-to-next-raise sensitivity 8. **Scenario dashboard**: Base / Bear / Bull toggle with key output KPIs (cash runway end date, breakeven year, NPV of fleet, IRR per plant) 9. **Comps table**: Oklo EV vs. NuScale, X-energy, NetPower, renewable IPPs (Orsted, Northland, Neoen) on EV/MW, EV/projected revenue ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Oklo SPAC financial model free? Yes. The Oklo SPAC model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.