# One Lonely Outpost Financial Model Space-themed farming simulator - "Stardew Valley meets The Martian" - with colony-building, organic vs. synthetic gameplay paths, and optional combat/mini-games. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/one-lonely-outpost - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/one-lonely-outpost.xlsx - Category: Media/Gaming - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Founded: 2022 - Geography: Not specified; digital distribution implies global. - Customer: B2C ## About the company One Lonely Outpost is a science-fiction farming and life simulator with an alpha build. Players can pursue organic farming with animals and premium crops or a synthetic route involving gene splicing, robo-animals, and mutations; colony building, NPC relationships, mining, and optional combat expand the world. It is planned as a premium, one-time digital purchase for PC, Mac, Linux, and Nintendo Switch. Xbox, PlayStation, mobile, multiplayer, and terraforming are contingent on additional funding. The deck does not disclose pricing, platform royalties, DLC, subscription revenue, or a live-service plan. The community included more than 3,500 Facebook likes, 3,500 Twitter followers, and 1,200 mailing-list subscribers, while the team had invested over $50,000 in cash and $250,000 in sweat equity. The model should stage development funding, launch units, store fees, marketing, and long-tail catalogue sales. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Farming simulator with space/alien world setting - first in the genre with this theme. - Dual gameplay paths: Organic farming (animals, cross-breeding, premium crop pricing) vs. Synthetic/GMO (gene splicing, robo-animals, mutations) - each with unique mechanics, narrative, and NPC reactions. - Colony builder: colonists arrive as food production grows. - Optional combat zone (alien ruins, robots) and asteroid-mining mini-game. - Optional terraforming feature (contingent on optimal funding). - Fully fledged NPCs with relationship systems, marriage, and children. - Distinctive tactile pixel art, Gene Splicing and In-depth plant tending as differentiating mechanics. - Engine: Unity 3D; targets PC/Mac/Linux, Nintendo Switch; Xbox/PS and mobile with additional funding. - Alpha build exists. ## Revenue model - Primary: Premium one-time purchase on digital storefronts (PC/Mac/Linux storefront TBD, Nintendo Switch eShop). - Secondary/optional: Mobile port, multiplayer features - contingent on funding. - No pricing, royalty split, or revenue-share figures disclosed in the deck. - No DLC, live-service, or subscription model mentioned. ## Traction & metrics - Community: 3,500+ Facebook page likes, 3,500+ Twitter followers, 1,200 mailing list subscribers - described as "highly engaged". - Team financial commitment: >$50,000 in monetary investment by team members + >$250,000 in sweat equity to date. - Alpha build exists (screenshots shown). - No revenue, pre-orders, Kickstarter, Wishlist count, or review data disclosed. ## Competition / moat - Direct comps cited: Stardew Valley, Harvest Moon. - Differentiation: Space/alien theme (claimed first in farming-sim genre), organic vs. synthetic dual-path narrative, Gene Splicing mechanic, tactile pixel art style. - No competitive matrix or market-share analysis provided. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds **Team (slide 11):** - Brad Petry - Project Manager; 7 years professional game dev, 3 as PM; managed 6 released titles at Powerhouse Gaming. - Christopher Bayliss - Programmer; 9 years experience, currently employed at Broadcom. - Narongdej Teo - Lead Artist; 10+ years professional art, ongoing contract work for DOTA 2 / Valve. - Richard Schmidbauer - Pixel Artist; 8+ years game art, multiple released titles. **Funding ask / use of funds:** - Minimum budget: $145,000/year × 2 years = $290,000 total. Delivers polished product without Terraforming. Claims "80%+ chance of positive ROI based on market research." - Optimal budget: $295,000/year × 2 years = $590,000 total. Includes Multiplayer, Terraforming, Follower/Helper NPCs, and expanded content. Described as "highest projected ROI." - Development timeline: ~2 years to Full Release (Beta at end of Y2-Q1 per Gantt). - Phase breakdown: Feature/Vertical Dev 196 days → Bugfixing 60 days → Content/Horizontal Dev 169 days → Polish 50 days → Stabilize 35 days. - No specific investor equity, valuation, or round structure disclosed. --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** Indie game production budget + revenue waterfall (premium one-time purchase model). The company is pre-revenue, seeking development funding for a fixed-scope project. The appropriate model is a project P&L / production budget model combined with a post-launch sales forecast - not an ongoing SaaS or subscription model. Structure: (1) Development cost schedule by phase; (2) Launch revenue model (units sold × price, net of platform royalty); (3) Break-even and ROI analysis. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** - Development phase: Monthly or quarterly, 24 months (2 years to Full Release). - Post-launch: Annual, 3–5 years (Years 1–5 post-launch). Indie games typically have a steep launch spike then long tail. - **Key drivers & assumptions:** - Development cost - min $145K/yr; optimal $295K/yr; scenario driver. - Development duration - 2 years; risk: slippage is common in indie dev. - Launch price per unit - $14.99–$19.99 USD (comparable to Stardew Valley at $14.99); needs confirmation. - Platform royalty/fee - 30% standard Steam/Switch take-rate (70% net to developer). - Launch-window unit sales - baseline 50K–150K units in Y1; derived from Stardew Valley comps (sold ~1M in first year) discounted heavily for unknown studio/IP. - Sales curve - 60% of lifetime sales in Y1, 25% in Y2, 15% thereafter (typical indie pattern). - Wishlist-to-sales conversion - ~10–15% (industry benchmark for indie on Steam); not verifiable from deck. - Marketing spend - 10–15% of development budget; not disclosed. - Refund rate - 5–8% (Steam standard). - Team headcount cost - 4 core team members; salaries/contractor rates not disclosed; budget figures are all-in. - Nintendo Switch port timing - simultaneous or 3–6 months after PC launch. - Mobile/multiplayer - excluded from base model (contingent on additional funding per deck). - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - Bear: Minimum budget ($290K total), PC-only launch, 30K lifetime units, $14.99 price. - Base: Minimum budget, PC + Switch simultaneous, 100K lifetime units, $17.99 price. - Bull: Optimal budget ($590K total), PC + Switch + Xbox/PS ports, 300K+ lifetime units, Multiplayer DLC revenue stream, $19.99 base price. - Flex variables: unit sales volume, price, platform mix (royalty rate blends), development cost overrun, marketing spend. - **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. Assumptions - all drivers with / tags. 2. Development Cost Schedule - monthly burn by phase, cumulative cash consumed. 3. Post-Launch Revenue Forecast - units × price × (1 − platform fee) by platform and year. 4. P&L Summary - gross revenue, platform fees, net revenue, marketing, team costs, net income/loss. 5. Break-Even Analysis - units needed to recover total investment at each scenario. 6. Cash Flow - cumulative cash burn during development + post-launch recovery. 7. Scenario Toggle - Base / Bull / Bear with output summary table. ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the One Lonely Outpost financial model free? Yes. The One Lonely Outpost model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.