# Orange Financial Model

Affordable EV charging hardware + software platform for multi-unit residential properties (apartments, condos).

- Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/orange
- Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/orange.xlsx
- Category: Climate/Energy
- Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation
- Funding round: Pre-seed
- Funding: $2.5M
- Founded: 2023
- Geography: United States (multi-family housing market). [DECK, slide 5]
- Customer: B2C

## About the company

Orange provides EV charging outlets for multifamily properties, combining low-cost hardware with driver payment software and property energy dashboards. Its cable-free outlets are designed to use existing electrical infrastructure, cutting installation cost versus conventional Level 2 charging.

Each installation generates hardware and warranty revenue upfront, then annual network fees and a 5% energy-revenue fee. The company had installed at 24 properties and was selling directly to apartment owners and operators such as Greystar, AvalonBay, and Irvine Company.

The model should use property cohorts rather than a pure SaaS ARR build. Forecast properties won, outlets per property, hardware ASP and COGS, warranty attachment, active drivers, network fees, charging revenue, and property-level CAC. Recurring revenue compounds as the installed base grows, while installation pace and utilisation determine cash break-even.

## What's included

- 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions
- Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule
- Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking
- Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check
- Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR
- Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention

## Product & value proposition

- Hardware: Orange Outlet NEMA 5-20 (120V, 1.92 kWh, 16A, 5 mph added/hr) and NEMA 6-20 (240V, 3.84 kWh, 16A, 15 mph added/hr). Cable-free design removes main failure point.
- Software: Mobile app for EV drivers (payment, charging history). Property-owner dashboard (statement history, energy data). Proprietary software to source clean energy.
- Value to property: 60% lower installation cost vs. other Level 2 solutions; $1,100 all-in fixed cost vs. $5,600–$6,200 for competitors; 5-year break-even vs. 33–36 years for competitors.
- Compliant with CDFA code to sell $/kWh and tracks utility energy cost - differentiators no competitor offers simultaneously.

## Market

- US TAM: $8.4B; calculation: 52.6M people in multi-family housing × 32% EV adoption (2032) = 16.8M EV drivers × $504 blended revenue per driver.
- Underlying population: 276M total US vehicles; 96.6M projected EVs by 2032.
- EV adoption trajectory: Bloomberg projects EVs reach 35% of all vehicles by ~2033; cost parity with ICE by 2025 as catalyst.
- SOM target (internal): $100M ARR = 170k active EV drivers at $590 blended revenue per install.
- SAM: Not explicitly broken out separately from TAM in deck.
- Regulatory tailwind: EV charging becoming required for new construction and renovation in a growing number of states.

## Revenue model

Three revenue streams per installation:

| Stream | Unit Price | Frequency |
| -- | -- | -- |
| Hardware sale (NEMA 6-20 Cellular) | $350 | One-time per outlet |
| Orange Care (5-year warranty) | $75 | One-time per outlet |
| Yearly Network / SaaS fee | $240 per driver | Annual recurring |
| Energy fee (5% of property energy revenue) | ~$157 per driver | Annual recurring |

- Total yearly revenue per 10-outlet install: $8,224
- Property pays $216/yr annual service fees + 5% commission on energy revenue
- Sales channel: B2B direct to apartment complex owners/operators; working with Sares Regis, Greystar, BLVD Residential, AvalonBay, Irvine Company
- Hardware COGS implied: $350 × (1 − 77% margin) ≈ $80/unit

## Traction & metrics

- Properties installed: 24 properties and counting
- Active B2B pipeline: 5 named large multifamily operators (Greystar, AvalonBay, Irvine Company, Sares Regis, BLVD Residential)
- Projected cash flow to EBITDA positive: ~Oct 2023 at 10k installations; total revenue reaching ~$1M and EBITDA ~$750k by end of 2023 trajectory on that chart.
- No historical revenue figures stated in deck (pre-revenue or very early).

## Unit economics

All from unless noted:
- Hardware ASP: $350 (NEMA 6-20 Cellular) + $75 warranty = $425 upfront per unit
- Annual recurring per EV driver: $240 (network fee) + $157 (energy fee) = $397/driver/yr
- Blended first-year revenue per install (10 units): $8,224
- Profit margin on sales: 77%
- CAC: $3,000 per property (implied per 10-unit install)
- LTV (5-year): $10,211
- LTV:CAC ratio: 3×
- Property-level CAPEX (20 Orange outlets): $22,000 installed; competitor Level 2 is $70,000 for 10 units
- Annual OPEX per property (20 outlets): $1,440 vs. $2,400–$3,000 for competitors
- 10-year property profit (Orange, 20 outlets): $31,118 vs. losses of $(67,963)–$(70,102) for competitors
- Electricity charged to driver: $0.39/kWh

## Competition / moat

Competitors named: Plugzio, ChargePoint, Xeal, EverCharge.

Orange's advantages:
- Lowest hardware cost ($350 vs. $400–$2,000) and lowest total install cost ($1,100 vs. $2,000–$6,200)
- Only solution that both meets CDFA code (sell $/kWh) AND tracks utility energy cost
- 5-year property break-even vs. 33–36 years for alternatives
- Cable-free design reduces maintenance failure points
- Moat: proprietary energy management software; regulatory compliance advantage; team with deep Tesla/EverCharge pedigree

## Team & funding ask / use of funds

Team:
- Nicholas Johnson (CEO): Tesla thermal electrical engineer (Model 3); CTO/co-founder LYT.ai
- Neil Joseph (Head of Ops): CEO & founder Stack Lighting (acquired by Philips); Tesla head of delivery (Model S)
- Joseph Nagle (Head of Corporate Strategy & Marketing): 6 years corporate strategy at EverCharge (acquired by S&K)
- Volker Schönefeld (Fullstack Software Engineer): serial entrepreneur, mobile games
- Don MacNeil (Head of Sales): ex-Tesla, Juice Bar, Semaconnect

Advisors: Martin Eberhard (Tesla co-founder), Marc Tarpenning (Tesla co-founder), Mike Harrigan (original VP Sales Tesla), Sven Thesen (EverCharge EV policy, Nobel Prize climate research), Jonathan Crowder (Intelis Capital, EV/clean energy investor)

Funding ask: $2M Seed Round

Use of funds:
- Deploy 5k units → $1.4M ARR within 12 months
- Grow sales, engineering, and customer support teams
- Increase supply chain capacity to reach 10k units sold
- Expand to 4 large multifamily property company partnerships

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## Recommended financial model

**Archetype + why:** Hardware + recurring-revenue (SaaS/usage hybrid) P&L with unit cohort buildup. Orange is not pure SaaS nor pure hardware - the right model is a unit-economics cohort model where each property/install generates one-time hardware revenue upfront plus annuity recurring streams. This is closest to an IoT/hardware-as-a-platform model (think Samsara, SmartRent), best modelled as a cohort ARR build rather than pure ARR SaaS.

**Forecast horizon & granularity:** Monthly for 2022–2023 (given slide 13 shows monthly cash flow targets); annual summary for 2024–2026. Three years total operating forecast.

**Key drivers & assumptions:**

| Driver | Value | Source |
| -- | -- | -- |
| Hardware ASP (NEMA 6-20 Cellular) | $350/unit | - |
| Warranty attach (Orange Care) | $75/unit | - |
| Warranty attach rate | 100% | deck shows it in every 10-unit example |
| Annual network fee per driver | $240 | - |
| Annual energy fee per driver | $157 | - |
| Energy commission rate | 5% of property energy revenue | - |
| Hardware COGS per unit | ~$80 (implied by 77% GM) | - |
| Gross margin on hardware | 77% | - |
| CAC per property (10-unit install) | $3,000 | - |
| Units deployed (k): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | 3k / 18k / 26k | - |
| Bookings ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $1.20M / $8.75M / $17.50M | - |
| COGS ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $0.63M / $4.59M / $9.19M | - |
| Gross margin ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $0.70M / $3.50M / $7.00M | - |
| GM%: 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | 58% / 60% / 60% | - |
| Opex ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $3.20M / $10.40M / $20.00M | - |
| Net income ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $(2.0M) / $(1.65M) / $(2.5M) | - |
| Headcount EOY: 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | 8 / 41 / 94 | - |
| MMR goals ($k): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $120k / $250k / $400k | - |
| Cash at end of period ($M): 2022 / 2023 / 2024 | $2.2M / $4.8M / $8.2M | - |
| Avg units per property | ~20 | based on slide 11 example; deck uses 10 in unit econ table |
| Driver utilization rate (drivers / outlet) | 1:1 | each outlet serves 1 primary EV driver for recurring revenue |
| Electricity price to driver | $0.39/kWh | - |
| Blended install cost (hardware + labor, to property) | ~$1,100 for 10 units | - |
| Seed round raised | $2.0M | - |
| Average commute distance | 50 miles/day → 3.3 hrs/charge on 6-20 | - |
| Avg salary per FTE | ~$120k blended; implied by opex ÷ headcount |

**Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):**
- **Base:** Deck projections - 3k / 18k / 26k units deployed 2022–2024; 60% GM; $2M seed.
- **Bull:** Faster B2B pipeline conversion with named partners (Greystar, AvalonBay); 20k / 30k / 50k units; energy fee growth as EV adoption accelerates; additional funding round in 2023.
- **Bear:** Slower property owner adoption; 2k / 8k / 15k units; hardware COGS pressure from supply chain; GM compresses to 50%; cash burn exhausts seed before break-even.
- Flex variables: units deployed per quarter, CAC, hardware ASP, energy fee $/driver, headcount growth pace, GM%.

**Required sheets / outputs:**
1. **Assumptions** - all drivers above, centralized, colour-coded
2. **Unit Cohort Build** - monthly new installs × units/property; cumulative active outlets and active EV drivers; cohort-level recurring revenue by vintage
3. **Revenue Build** - hardware + warranty (one-time), network fee + energy fee (recurring), split by month/year
4. **P&L (Income Statement)** - Bookings, COGS, Gross Profit, GM%, Opex by department (R&D, S&M, G&A, Ops), EBITDA, Net Income
5. **Headcount Plan** - by department (Eng, G&A, Mktg, Ops, Sales); EOY totals matching deck
6. **Cash Flow** - operating, investing (capex / inventory), financing (seed inflow); ending cash balance (validates slide 21: $2.2M / $4.8M / $8.2M)
7. **Unit Economics Summary** - CAC, LTV (5-yr), LTV:CAC, payback period, per-property ROI vs. competitors
8. **Market Sizing** - TAM/SAM/SOM build from population → EV adoption → multifamily penetration
9. **Scenario Toggle** - Base / Bull / Bear switch driving key outputs

## Frequently asked questions

### Is the Orange financial model free?

Yes. The Orange model is a free Excel download with live formulas.

### Can I change the assumptions?

Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.