# Origin Financial Model AI + human-curated premium travel planning app with a membership model - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/origin - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/origin.xlsx - Category: AI/ML - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: Seed - Funding: $5M - Founded: 2022 - Geography: US + EU (primary); global premium traveler market referenced [DECK slide 10] - Customer: B2C ## About the company Origin is a premium travel-planning app combining AI with human curators. Members use a mobile personal travel assistant for ideation, planning, booking, in-trip support, and follow-up, rather than assembling an itinerary through separate online travel agencies. The commercial model combines a membership subscription for unlimited planning with booking revenue or margin on hotels, flights, and activities. A sample Bhutan trip totalled €12,680; member testimonials indicate repeat travel, including one member who had travelled four times since joining in May 2021. The model cohorts members, tracks membership conversion, retention, trips per member, and booking value, then applies the relevant take rate. It incorporates curator capacity and cost, supplier-payment timing, customer acquisition, product investment, gross margin, cash burn, and runway across trip-volume scenarios. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition End-to-end travel service: ideation → planning → booking → on-trip support → post-trip. - Mobile app (iOS on App Store) - "Personal travel EA": human curators supercharged by ML/AI handle the full trip lifecycle - Unlimited service for members across trip types (short and long-haul) - One-tap payment system; example trip shown: €12,680 total (Bhutan, Six Senses properties) - Differentiator vs. OTAs: personalisation + end-to-end execution, not just discovery - Differentiator vs. traditional agencies (>$10k/trip, phone/email): mobile-first, software-tooled, faster ## Market - TAM: $1T global premium travel market - SAM: $60.4B - bringing the offline premium travel market online - CAGR: 19% for premium travel vertical, 2020–2026 - Funnel to SAM: - 16M global premium travelers - 10.1M US + EU segment - 4.7M Millennial + Gen X (fastest-growing segment) - Sources cited: Statista, AMR ## Revenue model - Membership subscription: members pay for unlimited trip-planning service; pricing not stated in deck - Trip booking revenue: implied take-rate or margin on hotel/flight/activity bookings (example trip €12,680) - Channels: mobile app (iOS) direct; no reseller/affiliate channel mentioned ## Traction & metrics - Customers: qualitative testimonials only; three named members identified (D.W., J.R., P.M.) - P.M. described as "Member since May 2021 and traveled 4x with Origin" - J.R. "converted to membership on trip purchase" - D.W. "purchased membership & trip & just got back from 1st trip" - Members "book multiple trips per quarter" ## Unit economics - LTV direction: "Broad spectrum of trips leads to high LTV"; membership drives "100% share of travel wallet" - One concrete trip value: €12,680 (Bhutan example, Aug 2021) ## Competition / moat Competitive positioning (scatter matrix, axes: Personalized ↔ Not Personalized vs. Zero Scaling ↔ Hyper Scaling): - Origin: top-right quadrant (Personalized + Hyper Scaling) - the uncrowded space - Booking.com, Agoda, Airbnb: mid-chart, trending toward personalized but limited scaling - Tourlane: personalized, mid-scaling - TAUCK, Scott Dunn, Abercrombie & Kent: personalized but zero scaling - Superhuman and Mighty cited as analogues for premium productivity subscriptions Moat claims: 1. Proprietary customer data accumulated across full trip lifecycle 2. Specialised internal tooling + ML/AI (recommendation engine, logistics optimisation, content generation) 3. Human curator workforce scaling model (Stitch Fix analogy) 4. Self-propagating data flywheel: more trips → more data → better personalization → more trips ## Team & funding ask / use of funds Team: - Eli Bressert - ML, AI & product; background: Netflix, Stitch Fix, Convoy - Tamar van de Paal - Operations, marketing & partnerships; background: Google, Nextdoor, WPP, Mr & Mrs Smith, Airbnb, Uber, Wealthfront, Scott Dunn - (Additional pedigree from Exceptional Travel noted) Advisors / angels: - Brad Klingenberg - Chief Algorithms Officer, Daily Harvest; formerly CAO at Stitch Fix - John Johnson - Co-founder of BuzzFeed; owner of Harmony Hotel Investors: - Cavalry Ventures (named) Contact: Eli Bressert, eli@origin.me, www.origin.me --- ## Recommended financial model **Archetype + why:** Membership + transaction (booking) P&L model - hybrid of SaaS ARR logic (for subscription) and marketplace GMV/take-rate logic (for trip booking revenue). Origin has two revenue streams that compound: recurring membership fee + per-trip booking margin. The membership drives frequency and wallet share, making this structurally similar to a concierge subscription with booking monetisation layered on. **Forecast horizon & granularity:** - Monthly for Year 1–2 (ramp phase); quarterly for Year 3–5 - 5-year total forecast (standard for early-stage fundraise) **Key drivers & assumptions:** | Driver | Value / Source | | -- | -- | | SAM - addressable premium travelers (US+EU) | 10.1M | | Target sub-segment (Millennial + Gen X) | 4.7M | | Premium travel market CAGR (2020–2026) | 19% | | MoM member growth rate | 10–15% in early months; decelerating to 5% steady-state; typical early-stage consumer subscription | | Annual membership fee | $X,XXX/yr (not disclosed); comparable to Superhuman ~$360/yr or luxury concierge $2,000–5,000/yr; set as a toggle | | Average trip value (GMV per booking) | ~€10,000–15,000 per trip based on €12,680 Bhutan example and >$10k/trip agency reference | | Trips per member per year | 4–6 (P.M. traveled 4x, "multiple trips per quarter" language) | | Origin take-rate on trip GMV | 10–15%; standard for premium travel curation / agency model | | Curator cost per active member per month | $X; model as headcount + tooling; key scaling variable | | Curator-to-member ratio | 1:20 early → 1:50 at scale (Stitch Fix analogy cited) | | Churn (annual membership) | 15–20% early; target <10% at scale; high LTV framing | | S&M spend as % of revenue | 40–60% early-stage | | Gross margin (blended) | 30–50%; subscription portion higher margin than booking take-rate | **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - **Base:** 10% MoM member growth, 4 trips/member/yr, 12% take-rate, 1:30 curator ratio - **Bull:** 15% MoM growth, 6 trips/member/yr, 15% take-rate, membership fee at high end - **Bear:** 5% MoM growth, 2 trips/member/yr, 10% take-rate, higher curator cost (slower AI scaling) **Required sheets / outputs:** 1. **Assumptions** - all toggles: member growth, fee, trip volume, take-rate, curator ratios 2. **Member Cohort Model** - monthly cohorts, churn, retention curve 3. **P&L** - Revenue (membership + booking take-rate), COGS (curator headcount + platform costs), Gross Profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA 4. **GMV & Booking Revenue** - separate from subscription, volume × ASP × take-rate 5. **Headcount Plan** - curator scaling (key cost driver), tech, ops 6. **Cash Flow & Runway** - given no raise amount disclosed, model to show months of runway at different burn levels 7. **Market Penetration** - members as % of 4.7M TAM over time 8. **Unit Economics Summary** - LTV, CAC, LTV:CAC, payback period (use assumed inputs until actuals provided) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Origin financial model free? Yes. The Origin model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.