# TBD Financial Model TBD is building Web5 - an open decentralized web platform (DWP) that enables developers to write Decentralized Web Apps (DWAs) using DIDs, Verifiable Credentials, and Decentralized Web Nodes (DWNs). [DECK slide 1, 3] - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/tbd - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/tbd.xlsx - Category: Crypto/Web3 - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Funding round: N/A - Founded: 2022 - Customer: C2C ## About the company TBD, a Block subsidiary, is building Web5: an open decentralised web platform based on decentralised identifiers, verifiable credentials, and decentralised web nodes. Its aim is to let developers build decentralised web applications without depending on conventional centralised identity and data infrastructure. The deck does not disclose direct monetisation. Instead, it presents Web5 as an open protocol layer and points to tbDEX, a decentralised-web-node-based exchange protocol, as a potential downstream platform. This means ecosystem adoption and standards implementation matter more than early assertions of SaaS revenue. Model developer adoption, decentralised web nodes, credential activity, enterprise services, grants, and protocol usage as separate drivers. Keep any transaction or service monetisation assumption explicit, then include ecosystem investment, developer tooling, infrastructure, and security costs. Adoption speed, partner integrations, grant intensity, node utilisation, and future service pricing should determine scenarios. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition Web5 is a technology stack built on three primitives: 1. **Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs)** - self-generated, self-owned identifiers anchored in ION (Bitcoin Layer 2); no centralized authority; resistant to interdiction; universally discoverable. 2. **Verifiable Credentials (VCs)** - cryptographically signed data claims issued to a DID, stored in an identity wallet, and selectively presented to verifying parties (PFIs, banks, apps). 3. **Decentralized Web Nodes (DWNs)** - personal data storage + async messaging nodes; eventually-consistent, optionally encrypted, semantically typed, universally addressable; replicated across devices and clouds. Together these components form the Decentralized Web Platform (DWP) on top of which Decentralized Web Apps (DWAs) are built - analogous to Progressive Web Apps (PWAs) but with a local DWN SDK replacing centralized app servers. Key use-cases shown: decentralized finance (tbDEX exchange protocol), music playlist portability across apps, unified travel reservation data, bank credential verification. ## Competition / moat Not explicitly named. Implied competitive framing: - vs. Web2: current model traps users in company-controlled data silos - vs. Web3 / crypto: Web5 is positioned as the alternative (Web2 + Web3 = Web5 formula) - avoids "special utility tokens or subjective consensus"; uses Bitcoin ION for DID anchoring, not a proprietary token Moat: open standard (DID, DWN are W3C emerging standards); Bitcoin-anchored identity (ION); being built by Block / TBD with existing developer ecosystem credibility. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why**: This deck does not present an operating company with disclosed revenue, customers, or financials. TBD is a Block subsidiary building open-source infrastructure. The appropriate model is a **developer-ecosystem / platform adoption forecast** paired with a **downstream protocol revenue model** (transaction fee / spread on tbDEX exchange volume). If the purpose is an internal business case or investment memo for Block, a **3-statement operating model** for TBD as a cost center → revenue center transition is most appropriate. - **Forecast horizon & granularity**: 5 years (Year 1–5), annual; quarterly for Year 1–2 once operational metrics are defined. - **Key drivers & assumptions**: - Developer adoption (DWA builders): start at ~500 active developers in Year 1, grow at 150% YoY as platform matures; rationale: early open-source protocol plays (Stripe, Twilio) saw similar curves - DWN node deployments (proxy for end-user adoption): 10 DWNs per active developer on average in Year 1 - tbDEX monthly transaction volume ($): launch in Year 2; pilot PFIs = 3–5; ramp to $50M GMV/month by end of Year 3; rationale: stablecoin/remittance adjacent, conservative vs. Stellar/Ripple comps - Protocol take rate on tbDEX: 5–10 bps (0.05–0.10%); rationale: thin spread to compete with SWIFT alternatives - R&D / headcount spend: primary cost driver; assume 50 engineers at average $200K fully-loaded in Year 1, scaling to 150 by Year 3 - No deck data exists for any of the above; all are model assumptions - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex)**: - **Bull**: tbDEX gains 10+ PFI partners by Year 2; GMV ramps to $200M/month by Year 3; developer ecosystem hits 5,000 active builders - **Base**: 3–5 PFI partners by Year 3; $50M GMV/month; 1,500 active builders - **Bear**: Protocol adoption stalls; no meaningful PFI uptake by Year 3; TBD remains a pure cost center for Block - **Required sheets / outputs**: 1. Assumptions - all drivers in one place with vs tags 2. Developer Adoption Model - cohort-based growth of DWA builders and DWN deployments 3. tbDEX Revenue Model - GMV bridge, take rate, protocol revenue 4. P&L - operating expenses (headcount, infrastructure, developer relations), EBITDA 5. Cash Flow - burn rate and path to breakeven (relevant if modeling as standalone unit) 6. Dashboard - KPIs: active developers, DWN nodes, tbDEX GMV, protocol revenue, burn ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the TBD financial model free? Yes. The TBD model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.