# The Flame in the Flood Financial Model Procedurally generated survival/exploration video game set in a flooded river world, with a companion dog and raft navigation, developed by The Molasses Flood LLC. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/the-flame-in-the-flood - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/the-flame-in-the-flood.xlsx - Category: Media/Gaming - Model type: SaaS ARR / Valuation - Founded: 2014 - Geography: USA (studio based in US; no geography specified) [DECK - slide 15 team bios reference US studios: Irrational Games/BioShock, Bungie/Halo, etc.] - Customer: B2C ## About the company The Flame in the Flood is a procedurally generated survival game from The Molasses Flood. Scout and her dog travel a flood-prone river wilderness by raft and on foot, scavenging, crafting, and surviving hazards in a concept described as “Toobin’ meets Oregon Trail.” The title is a premium digital release on Steam and consoles. A Chuck Ragan soundtrack can provide ancillary sales or streaming income, while raft skins, ornaments, and decals suggest possible DLC or cosmetic options; no price, platform split, or channel plan is disclosed. This should be a title-level P&L rather than a subscription model. It needs development and launch marketing cost, unit sales by storefront, platform deductions, soundtrack or cosmetic attachment, and post-launch sales decay. The research is a pre-release project deck and contains no pre-orders, wishlists, revenue, or user traction. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Game title: "The Flame in the Flood" - Developer: The Molasses Flood LLC - Genre: Procedurally generated survival / stealth / exploration game - Core loop: Player travels by raft or on foot down a procedurally generated river world; crafts traps, creates distractions, leverages systemic wildlife AI to scavenge supplies and shelter - Tagline: "Toobin' meets Oregon Trail" - World: "Riverlands" - a forgotten, flood-prone wilderness populated by dangerous wildlife (wolves, boars), memorable NPCs (e.g. Magnolia's Shop), and environmental hazards - Player character: "Scout" + companion dog "Aesop's Hound" - Player vessel: Raft ("Piece of Ship") with customisable storage, decals, ornaments, skins - Soundtrack: Chuck Ragan & The Molasses Flood - press coverage in Rolling Stone, Esquire, New Noise Magazine - Visual style: Illustrated, painterly - concept art and preproduction asset sheets throughout ## Revenue model Not explicitly stated in deck. Based on game type and era: - Primary revenue: digital game sales (Steam, consoles) - one-time purchase price; typical indie price point $14.99–$19.99 at launch - Secondary revenue: soundtrack sales/streaming - Chuck Ragan partnership suggests a commercial OST release - Potential: DLC / cosmetic skins (slide 7 references "player skins, player ornaments, player decals") - No pricing, no platform splits, no channel strategy disclosed in deck. ## Traction & metrics Note: The game was eventually released in early access January 2016 and full release February 2016. That information is not in this deck. ## Competition / moat Not explicitly stated. Implicit moats from the deck: - Pedigree team: six founders with AAA credits at Irrational Games (BioShock Infinite), Bungie (Halo 2/3/ODST), Harmonix (Rock Band), EA (Medal of Honor) - Procedural generation differentiator: no two playthroughs identical - Original soundtrack by a recognised folk-punk artist (Chuck Ragan) - Distinctive art direction: hand-illustrated, not pixel art - unusual for survival genre at the time ## Team & funding ask / use of funds Team: - Bryn Bennett - Tech/Founder; ex-Tech Director Freedom Force 2, Lead Programmer Titan Quest, Programmer Rock Band series - Chad LaClair - Art/Design/Founder; ex-Senior Level Builder BioShock Infinite, Designer Medal of Honor: Airborne - Damian Isla - Mastermind/Tech/Founder; ex-Project Lead Third Eye Crime, Lead AI Programmer Halo 2/3/ODST, AI Programmer BioShock Infinite - Forrest Dowling - CEO/Design/Founder; ex-Design Lead BioShock Infinite, Designer Homefront - Gwen Frey - Art/Founder; ex-Senior Technical Animator BioShock Infinite and Marvel Heroes - Scott Sinclair - Director/Art/Founder; ex-Art Director BioShock 1 & Infinite, primary artist Guitar Hero 1, Eyetoy Anti-Grav, Rock Band 2, Art Lead Freedom Force vs the Third Reich --- ## Recommended financial model - Archetype + why: **Indie game launch P&L model (unit-sales-based)**. Revenue is driven by unit sales at launch + long tail, with a secondary soundtrack revenue stream. No subscription or recurring component. Classic one-time-purchase indie game economics. - Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years post-launch; monthly for Year 1 (captures launch spike + tail decay), quarterly for Years 2–3. - Key drivers & assumptions: - Launch window (Kickstarter campaign end / Early Access date / Full release date) - Units sold at launch (first 30 days) - Launch price - Platform revenue share - Sales decay curve: rapid post-launch decline, ~60–70% of lifetime sales in first 90 days - Discount/sale uplift: Steam sales events driving volume spikes at ~50–75% discount - Kickstarter backer units (if applicable): pre-sales recognised at launch - Soundtrack revenue - Headcount / burn rate: 6 founders + contractors - Dev cost to ship - Marketing / PR spend - Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex): - Bear: Low launch awareness, 30k units in first 30 days, price $14.99, limited Steam visibility - Base: 100k units in first 30 days, $14.99 launch, one major Steam sale in Year 1 - Bull: Strong Kickstarter backing + console port announcement, 250k+ units, $19.99 launch, console platform deal - Required sheets / outputs: 1. Assumptions sheet (all drivers, scenario toggle) 2. Unit sales model (monthly units by platform: PC/Mac/Linux, console) 3. Revenue build (gross revenue, platform cut, net revenue; game + soundtrack) 4. COGS & gross margin (minimal for digital; hosting/distribution costs) 5. OpEx (dev salaries/contractors, marketing, G&A) 6. P&L (EBITDA, net income) 7. Cash flow & runway (burn pre-launch, payback post-launch) 8. KPI summary (units sold, ASP, net revenue per unit, breakeven unit count) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the The Flame in the Flood financial model free? Yes. The The Flame in the Flood model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.