# Wayward Strand Financial Model Narrative indie video game set aboard an airborne hospital in 1970s Australia, developed by Ghost Pattern. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/startups/wayward-strand - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/startup-models/wayward-strand.xlsx - Category: Media/Gaming - Model type: Marketplace / GMV - Founded: 2022 - Geography: Australia (developer); game set in 1970s Australia. Distribution presumed global digital. - Customer: B2C ## About the company Wayward Strand is an interactive narrative game set aboard an airborne hospital, where Casey explores simultaneous stories. NPCs continue independently, so one thread excludes others; the fully voiced experience has no fail state and is accessible to all ages and abilities. A single playthrough lasts two to three hours, but the game is designed for a dozen or more replays. The studio developed a custom toolset to manage its Gantt-chart-like narrative structure. The deck is a pre-launch publisher or grant pitch and contains no commercial traction or post-launch data. Revenue is best treated as premium buy-to-play unit sales on PC and console storefronts. The research does not indicate subscription, free-to-play, DLC, price, or platform terms; soundtrack or physical editions are only low-probability possibilities. The model should stage development, localisation, marketing, launch units, store fees, cash burn, and long-tail catalogue sales. ## What's included - 5-year monthly revenue build with stage-appropriate growth assumptions - Full P&L, headcount plan, and operating-expense schedule - Cash-flow statement, runway, and burn-rate tracking - Valuation via exit multiple with a DCF cross-check - Returns analysis with MOIC and IRR - Unit economics including CAC, LTV, payback, and cohort retention ## Product & value proposition - Heartfelt, interactive narrative game with simultaneous multi-character story threads playing out in real time aboard an airborne hospital. - Player controls Casey, a teenage girl who explores the hospital over three days, following characters and affecting conversations. - Unique "living world" mechanic: NPCs continue their stories independently of the player; time passes for all characters simultaneously. - Fully voiced cast; dialogue-driven; no fail state; accessible to all ages and skill levels. - Single playthrough: 2–3 hours; designed for "a dozen or more" replays to see all content. - Custom toolset built to manage the simultaneous story / Gantt-chart narrative structure. - Proprietary IP and toolset; "like no other game." ## Revenue model Not explicitly stated in deck. Based on product description: - Premium buy-to-play title: one-time purchase price per unit. Standard for narrative indie games of this type (e.g., Firewatch, Night in the Woods). - Primary channels: Steam (PC/Mac), console storefronts (Switch, PS4/5, Xbox) - typical indie distribution stack. - Potential secondary revenue: soundtrack DLC, physical edition (rare for indie; low probability). - No subscription, F2P, or DLC-driven monetisation indicated by the deck. ## Traction & metrics Note: Game was presented pre-launch; the deck is a project pitch (publisher/grant). Wayward Strand has since shipped (July 2022) but no post-launch data appears here. ## Competition / moat Not explicitly called out as a "competition" slide, but moat implied: - Unique simultaneous-narrative toolset built in-house. - "Like no other game" positioning - simultaneous multi-character real-time narrative is the claimed differentiator. - Comparable titles referenced by genre (not slide): empathetic narrative games (Firewatch, Oxenfree, Night in the Woods) - these are implied peers by style but not cited in the deck. - Accessibility angle: designed for non-gamers, all ages. ## Team & funding ask / use of funds - Developer: Ghost Pattern - diverse team, first project together as a studio. - Prior credits span: Armello, Cosmic Express, The Sims FreePlay, experimental theatre, interactive film. - Contact / website: waywardstrand.com --- ## Recommended financial model - **Archetype + why:** Premium indie game P&L / project budget model. This is a pre-launch project pitch (not a SaaS, not a marketplace, not a recurring-revenue business). The right model is a project-economics model: development budget vs. projected unit sales revenue, split by platform/storefront, netting out platform fees, with a simple P&L showing development cost recovery and potential upside. If the pitch is to a publisher, a recoupment waterfall is appropriate. - **Forecast horizon & granularity:** 3–5 years post-launch; monthly for Year 1 (launch spike + tail), annual for Years 2–5. Development phase budget tracked separately (pre-revenue). - **Key drivers & assumptions (tag or):** - Launch price (USD): ~$20–$25 suggested retail; typical for ~3-hour narrative indie with replayability - set as an input. - Unit sales - launch window (Month 1): 5,000–20,000 units base case; narrative indie benchmark (Firewatch ~500k lifetime but high-profile; lower-profile titles 10k–50k lifetime). - Platform mix: 60% Steam, 20% Switch, 10% PS4/5, 10% Xbox - adjustable. - Platform fee (revenue share): 30% standard storefront cut; 20% for Steam post-200k threshold (unlikely at this scale). - Sales decay curve: Launch spike Month 1, 40–50% drop Month 2, long tail - standard indie S-curve. - Playthrough time 2–3 hours - informs review score / word-of-mouth / replayability positioning. - Team size: ~5 FTE (visible in team photo slide 14); dev cost modelled as burn rate × runway. - Dev burn rate: AUD ~$60–80k/month for 5-person Australian indie studio - adjust to actuals. - Dev timeline to launch: based on deck date vs. known ship date (July 2022); if pitching ~2021, 12–18 months runway needed. - Marketing / PR budget: 10–15% of projected launch revenue; typical indie spend. - Refund rate: 5–8% (Steam norm for short narrative games with refund-window risk). - Replayability effect on revenue: - modest; does not translate directly to incremental revenue in premium model but supports word-of-mouth assumption. - **Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):** - Bear: 5,000 lifetime units; low review score; minimal press. - Base: 15,000–25,000 lifetime units; positive niche reception; community word-of-mouth. - Bull: 50,000+ units; breakout coverage (e.g., Nintendo Indie World feature, major press); sequel potential. - Flex variables: Unit price, total units sold, platform mix, launch timing, dev runway cost. - **Required sheets / outputs:** - Assumptions (all inputs in one place: price, units by platform, burn, timeline) - Development Budget (total dev cost, remaining runway, headcount × months) - Revenue Model (units × price × (1 – platform fee) by platform, monthly, with decay curve) - P&L Summary (Revenue – COGS – Dev Cost – Marketing = Net Income; payback period) - Cash Flow (monthly: burn pre-launch, revenue post-launch, break-even date) - Publisher Recoupment Waterfall (if publisher deal: advance, recoup threshold, revenue share splits post-recoup) - Sensitivity Table (units sold × launch price → net revenue / break-even) ## Frequently asked questions ### Is the Wayward Strand financial model free? Yes. The Wayward Strand model is a free Excel download with live formulas. ### Can I change the assumptions? Yes. The workbook is editable and its live formulas recalculate when assumptions change.