# HVAC Services Rollup Model See how customer demand, service work, maintenance plans, and branch growth shape an HVAC business. - Canonical: https://finamodel.com/templates/hvac-services - Excel download: https://finamodel.com/templates/hvac-services.xlsx - Category: Operating Businesses - Model type: Operating model - Difficulty: Intermediate - Audiences: Investors & analysts, Founders & operators, HVAC and plumbing operators, Search-fund and PE buyers, Home-services investors, Lenders and analysts - Tags: hvac-services, home-services, plumbing, rollup, dcf ## Overview This model helps you assess an HVAC and home services business across maintenance, repairs, replacements, and related work. It connects customer demand, recurring service plans, job pricing, and parts sales to the technicians, vehicles, branches, and support teams needed to deliver the service. Use it to evaluate an acquisition, a new branch, or a broader growth plan. Test customer growth, crew capacity, service mix, and pricing to see how they affect profitability, cash flow, and value. ## What's included - Branch inputs: Year-1 branches, new branches per year, jobs per branch, technicians per branch, average job ticket - Utilisation: Year-1 crew utilisation with an annual ramp and a practical ceiling - Service mix: maintenance, service repair, system replacement and plumbing-and-IAQ shares, per-tier price indices and net margins - Ancillary: members per branch and annual plan fee, parts and accessory attach per job, price escalation - Cost structure: technician and dispatch comp and wage with benefits and wage growth; facilities and fleet, marketing, technology and SG&A as % of gross profit; depreciation (% of revenue); tax - Capital and working capital: maintenance capex %, branch build-out cost per branch, NWC % of revenue growth, base-year revenue - Valuation: WACC, terminal growth, net debt, shares outstanding - Operations sheet: branch roll-forward, utilisation ramp, jobs per branch, total service jobs, staff headcount, jobs per technician - Revenue sheet: four service tiers, service revenue, maintenance memberships, parts and accessory attach, total revenue - P&L sheet: revenue to net income with equipment and parts cost, labour and overhead, margins, identity check - FCF sheet: NOPAT, depreciation add-back, capex, change in NWC, unlevered FCF, discount factor, PV - Valuation sheet: sum of PV, terminal value, enterprise value, equity value, value per share, implied EV/EBITDA - Dashboard with branches, service jobs, utilisation, revenue per branch and per job, EBITDA margin, EV, per share, and revenue mix ## HVAC Services Rollup Model: How the Financial Model Works This hvac financial model projects a multi-branch HVAC and plumbing rollup, covering branch expansion, membership programs, job pricing, technician capacity, and cash flow. It is designed for evaluating acquisitions, new branches, or growth plans by testing customer growth, crew capacity, service mix, and pricing to see how they affect profitability and value. ### Branch Roll-Forward and Capacity Ramp The model rolls the branch estate forward, adding new branches each year with a mid-year convention and first-year vintage ramp to reflect lower volume and plan sales for de novo locations. It computes average and effective branches, reporting portfolio utilisation net of dilution from new openings. - Job volume is sized off effective branches multiplied by mature jobs per branch, then adjusted by a seasoned crew-utilisation ramp that increases over time. This ramp gradually lifts throughput per branch, while a route-density ceiling caps membership growth. - The interplay of new branch additions and utilisation improvements creates operating leverage as fixed costs spread over rising revenue per branch. ### Membership Book and Recurring Revenue A membership book is modeled as a roll-forward with opening, renewed, lapsed, and gross adds based on the effective branch base, constrained by a route-density ceiling. Plan fees are treated as a prepaid service obligation: they buy technician visits that are carved out of the maintenance tier, with labour and consumables charged as membership fulfilment cost. - The plan runs at a modest direct margin, but its strategic value lies in member-to-replacement conversions. These conversions generate incremental install demand at the highest ticket in the model, and the membership book also absorbs shoulder-season capacity. - Renewals and gross adds drive average members and recurring revenue over the forecast. ### Pricing, Job Mix, and Technician Staffing Job volume is split across four service tiers—maintenance, repairs, replacements, and plumbing/IAQ—each with its own ticket index, wrench hours, material percentage, and true contribution. Pricing is mix-normalised so the blended menu ticket ties to the input, and menu prices escalate annually. - Jobs are converted into wrench hours, and technician headcount is solved from billable capacity, making labour a binding constraint. Technicians are staffed to avoid exceeding a 2,080-hour year, with overtime used at peak. - This ensures volume growth is paid for at a real loaded rate, making operating leverage genuine and driven by fixed overhead absorption as utilisation rises. ### Financial Statements and Valuation Outputs The model flows from revenue through direct costs—materials, field labour, membership fulfilment, attach cost of goods, and financing dealer fees—to gross profit, then deducts per-branch and per-truck overhead to reach EBITDA, EBIT, NOPAT, and net income after interest. - Free cash flow is derived from NOPAT, depreciation, capital expenditures, and working capital changes, with a net-debt roll including a cash sweep. - Valuation uses an unlevered DCF with a normalised terminal year, producing enterprise value, equity value, and value per share. - Entry and terminal multiples are calculated, and PV of terminal value as a percentage of EV is shown, providing a structured view of the platform's worth under the operating assumptions. ## Service mix drives the ticket and margin Revenue is the product of a branch estate, the service jobs it fills, and the service mix of those jobs. The model makes branch count, jobs per branch, a utilisation ramp, and a four-tier service mix explicit, so total service jobs and revenue per job are transparent operating metrics an analyst can flex against the cost stack rather than a top-down growth rate. ## Designed for one-edit responsiveness Every input, the branch pipeline, jobs per branch, the utilisation ramp, the service mix, the average ticket, the full cost stack, capex, working capital, and the WACC, is a named-range cell. Edit one and the operations build, revenue, P&L, free-cash-flow bridge, valuation, and dashboard all recompute. No formula rewrites are needed to test a pricing, mix, or expansion scenario. ## An unlevered DCF, not an EBITDA shortcut A home-services platform builds out and equips each branch with a capital-intensive service-truck fleet, tools and inventory, so the model bridges to unlevered free cash flow and discounts it at a WACC with a Gordon-growth terminal value. Enterprise value bridges through net debt to equity value and a per-share figure, and the implied EV/EBITDA falls out as a sanity check against where home-services platforms change hands. ## Workbook structure ### Cover Workbook overview, sheet legend, units, and tab-colour key. - Title and scope framing - Sheet-by-sheet purpose summary - Units and tab-colour legend ### Assumptions Every driver in one sheet: branches, utilisation, service mix, costs, capital, valuation. - Year-1 branches, new branches per year, jobs per branch, technicians per branch, average job ticket - Utilisation with an annual ramp and a practical ceiling - Service-tier shares, price indices and net margins, membership and attach inputs, price escalation - Technician and dispatch comp and wage, the percent-of-gross-profit overhead lines, depreciation, tax - Maintenance capex, build-out cost per branch, NWC, base-year revenue - WACC, terminal growth, net debt, shares ### Operations Branches, service jobs, utilisation, and staff. - Opening plus new branches equals closing branches - Utilisation ramps from a Year-1 input, capped at a ceiling - Jobs per branch equal mature jobs times utilisation - Total service jobs equal closing branches times jobs per branch - Technician and dispatch headcount equal closing branches times per-branch FTE - Jobs per technician as a productivity metric ### Revenue Revenue by service tier and ancillary. - Each tier equals total service jobs times service share times average ticket times price index times escalation - Service revenue subtotal - Maintenance memberships equal closing branches times members times annual fee - Parts and accessory attach equals total service jobs times attach spend per job - Total revenue ### P&L Revenue to net income. - Revenue from the Revenue sheet - Equipment and parts cost as the inverse of the per-tier net margin - Gross profit and gross margin - Technician and dispatch labour by headcount, the percent-of-gross-profit overhead stack - EBITDA, depreciation, EBIT, tax on positive EBIT, net income, margins, identity check ### FCF Unlevered free cash flow bridge. - EBIT and unlevered tax from the P&L - NOPAT equals EBIT less unlevered tax - Add back depreciation - Maintenance capex on revenue and build-out capex on new branches - Change in net working capital on revenue growth - Unlevered free cash flow - Discount factor and PV of UFCF ### Valuation Discounted cash flow. - Sum of PV of explicit UFCF - Gordon-growth terminal value and its PV - Enterprise value - Less net debt to equity value - Shares outstanding and value per share - Implied EV/EBITDA ### Dashboard Headline metrics and revenue mix. - Branches, service jobs, utilisation, revenue per branch and per job - Revenue and EBITDA - EBITDA margin - Enterprise value and value per share - Revenue mix across service, memberships, and attach ## Features - **Service mix drives the ticket and margin:** Revenue is the product of a branch estate, the service jobs it fills, and the service mix of those jobs. The model makes branch count, jobs per branch, a utilisation ramp, and a four-tier service mix explicit, so total service jobs and revenue per job are transparent operating metrics rather than a top-down growth rate, and the high-ticket system-replacement-versus-maintenance spread is visible in the blend. - **Labour is the cost, and it is modelled as headcount:** HVAC and plumbing is a skilled-labour, dispatch-driven business, so field technician and dispatch pay is the largest operating line and is built bottom-up from FTEs per branch, wage, benefits and wage inflation. Because technician labour sits in operating expense rather than cost of revenue, the gross margin runs on equipment and parts and the EBITDA margin is the meaningful profitability line, and the remaining overhead is geared to gross profit the way a real multi-branch operator would expect. - **An unlevered DCF, not an EBITDA shortcut:** A home-services platform builds out and equips each branch with a service-truck fleet, tools and inventory, so EBITDA overstates cash. The model bridges EBITDA to cash through NOPAT, depreciation, maintenance and build-out capex, and the change in working capital, then discounts the unlevered free-cash-flow stream at a WACC with a Gordon-growth terminal value to a defensible enterprise and equity value. ## Use cases - **Intrinsic valuation:** Set the branch pipeline, utilisation ramp, service mix, the cost stack, and a WACC, and read the enterprise value, equity value, value per share, and implied EV/EBITDA. Sense-check the multiple against where home-services platforms change hands. - **Roll-up and pipeline planning:** Flex new branches per year and the build-out cost per branch to see how the de novo and tuck-in pipeline consumes cash and lifts service-job volume, and watch revenue per branch and the EBITDA margin respond as the group scales. - **Mix and pricing stress test:** Shift the service mix toward higher-ticket system replacement or compress the per-tier net margins to model equipment-cost and menu-pricing pressure, and read the revenue-per-job, gross-margin, EBITDA-margin and valuation impact. ## Frequently asked questions ### What is an HVAC financial model? An HVAC financial model captures the seven-year operating economics and intrinsic value of a multi-branch HVAC and plumbing home-services platform that runs maintenance and tune-ups alongside service repairs, system replacement and install, adjacent plumbing and indoor-air-quality work, recurring maintenance memberships and a parts and accessory attach. It rolls a branch count forward, converts a crew-utilisation ramp into total service jobs, prices jobs across a four-tier service mix at a blended average ticket and price index, runs the technician-heavy cost stack to EBITDA, and discounts an unlevered free-cash-flow stream to enterprise value, equity value, and value per share. ### How is HVAC services revenue built? Revenue is driven by the branch estate and its utilisation: total service jobs equal closing branches times jobs per branch times a crew-utilisation factor that ramps to a ceiling, and service revenue splits those jobs across a maintenance, service repair, system replacement and plumbing-and-IAQ mix, each priced at a blended average job ticket times a per-tier price index. Branch-driven maintenance memberships and job-driven parts and accessory attach layer on to total revenue. ### Why does the EBITDA margin expand over the forecast? Field technician and dispatch labour scales with the branch footprint, but revenue per branch climbs as the crew-utilisation ramp lifts job throughput toward its ceiling. Because labour is broadly fixed to the branch count while utilisation compounds, EBITDA margin expands across the horizon even at a flat menu price, the operating-leverage story at the heart of every home-services roll-up. ### Why an unlevered DCF instead of an EBITDA multiple? A home-services platform still builds out and equips each branch with a capital-intensive service-truck fleet, tools and inventory, so EBITDA overstates cash. The model bridges to unlevered free cash flow, NOPAT plus depreciation, less maintenance and build-out capex, less the change in working capital, and discounts it at a WACC, then adds a Gordon-growth terminal value. The implied EV/EBITDA falls out as a sanity check rather than as the valuation input. ## Related templates - [Pest Control Services Model](https://finamodel.com/templates/pest-control) - [Franchise Unit Economics Model](https://finamodel.com/templates/franchise-model) - [Car Wash Roll-Up Model](https://finamodel.com/templates/car-wash)