Airport Financial Model

The forecast starts with passenger demand: a base passenger volume at full ramp, three years of traffic ramp-up from years five to seven, and long-term growth from year eight. A terminal capacity cap limits total passengers so the model cannot exceed physical infrastructure.

• Total passengers split into domestic, international and transfer segments, each with its own yield. Air traffic movements are derived from passengers divided by average seats per aircraft and load factor, giving an independent driver for ATM-based landing and parking fees.
• Cargo tonnage is derived from passengers and grows at a separate rate. This segmentation matters because international and transfer passengers generate materially different aeronautical and retail revenues, so a single aggregate passenger number would hide the mix effect.

Scenario switching on ramp and growth is documented, allowing low, base and high demand cases.

On the revenue side, aeronautical income comes from landing fees charged per ATM, passenger fees differentiated by domestic, international and transfer segment, aircraft parking fees per ATM, and cargo handling per tonne. Non-aeronautical income is built per passenger from retail concessions, food and beverage, duty free applied only to international passengers, car parking, ground transport, and real estate or advertising.

• Aero revenue escalates at a lower regulated rate while non-aero escalates faster, reflecting different pricing dynamics. On the cost side, fixed operating costs for airfield, terminal, security, ground handling, property and insurance escalate with inflation.
• Variable costs scale with passengers and ATMs. The model also deducts airline route incentives as a percentage of aero revenue and a concession fee as a percentage of total revenue, both paid to the granting authority.

Construction is phased over four years across terminal, runway and taxiway, baggage handling, ground transport and parking, utilities, and fit-out components. Interest during construction is capitalised, and maintenance capital expenditure is expressed as a percentage of opening gross property, plant and equipment each year, feeding a pooled asset rollforward with straight-line depreciation.

• Total project cost combines construction spend and capitalised interest. Funding is split between senior debt drawn across the construction period and sponsor equity, with a debt service reserve account funded at the end of construction.
• Senior debt amortises on an annuity basis over a fixed tenor, producing a constant annual debt service. A sculpted repayment mode targeting a chosen debt service coverage ratio is also documented as a sensitivity switch.

The cash flow statement builds cash available for debt service from EBITDA after maintenance capital expenditure, tax and working capital movements. It then services debt, funds or releases the debt service reserve, and builds a handback reserve in the final years of the concession before arriving at equity distributable cash.

• Returns are shown as unlevered project IRR, using unlevered tax, and equity IRR from equity injections and distributions. Lender covenants include minimum and average debt service coverage, loan life coverage and project life coverage, tested against thresholds.
• A sources and uses sheet ties day-zero funding to total uses. A checks sheet validates repayment, concession life, capacity limits, margin bands and balance tie-outs.

The public download is a values-only preview, not a live calculating model.