Hydrogen Production and Storage Model

The hydrogen model's production forecast starts with installed electrolyser capacity, capacity factor, and efficiency. Hydrogen output equals capacity in kilowatts times capacity factor times 8,760 hours, divided by efficiency in kilowatt-hours per kilogram.

• Efficiency degrades over time, and capacity factor may also decline annually. The default assumptions in the template include 100,000 kW capacity, 65% capacity factor, 52 kWh/kg base efficiency, and 1.5% degradation per 10,000 hours, but these are illustrative.
• Output determines all downstream revenues and variable costs. The model also captures by-product oxygen and heat sales, though these are secondary.

The hydrogen model follows a sequential calculation path: Operations feeds production volumes into Revenue_Opex, which calculates hydrogen sales, subsidies, and by-product revenue alongside power, water, and fixed operating costs. The resulting cash flow moves through the Cash_Waterfall, where operating cash flow after costs and maintenance capex becomes cash available for debt service (CADS).

• Debt is sized and amortised in the Debt_Schedule using a DSCR-sculpted profile that equalises the debt service ratio across the tenor. Construction-period interest is capitalised, and the model includes a maintenance reserve account that accumulates annually for stack replacement.
• Financial statements and returns are then generated from these integrated schedules.

The hydrogen model produces integrated financial statements, including income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, all driven by the operating and financing assumptions. From these, the model calculates project IRR, equity IRR, net present value, and LCOH.

• The LCOH is computed by discounting total costs and total hydrogen production to present value. A sensitivity tab shows how project IRR, equity IRR, LCOH, and minimum DSCR respond to changes in power cost and hydrogen sale price.
• The model also includes a checks tab to validate balance sheet balancing, minimum DSCR, LCOH range, and debt repayment. All outputs are values-only in the public download.

This hydrogen model is designed for developers and infrastructure investors assessing utility-scale green hydrogen facilities under project finance structures. It allows users to input their own assumptions for power pricing, offtake contracts, capital costs, and financing terms to test project viability.

• The debt sizing and DSCR sculpting features reflect typical non-recourse debt structures with covenants and reserve accounts. By adjusting the sensitivity analysis, users can see how changes in key variables impact returns.
• The model captures important nuances like electrolyser degradation, lumpy stack replacement costs, and by-product revenue. It is not intended for small-scale or non-electrolysis hydrogen production.