LNG Terminal ModelFree Financial Model Download

An LNG Terminal Model evaluates the project finance viability of a liquefied natural gas import or export terminal with ship-or-pay tolling contracts. The model captures capacity reservation fees (fixed, regardless of volume), variable throughput fees, and ancillary revenue (berthing, truck loading) to project 20-30 year cash flows. A typical 3 MTPA terminal generates $300-500M revenue annually at full utilization, with 75-90% gross margin because the variable cost (gas shrinkage, power, water) is minimal and the capacity fee is largely decoupled from operational costs. EBITDA margins of 55-75% support 5.0-7.0x debt-to-EBITDA leverage, requiring strict DSCR covenants (minimum 1.20-1.35x) and loan-life coverage ratios (minimum 1.30x).

The workbook models a 3-5 year construction phase with capex draws, capitalized interest, and IDC (interest during construction). Commercial operations begin at a defined COD (Commercial Operations Date), gating all revenue and opex. Revenue derives from contracted capacity × tariff (fixed, inflation-escalated) for contracted shippers, plus variable volume × tariff on spot cargoes. Capex is split by component: jetty/marine ($60-80M), LNG tanks ($75-100M), vaporizers ($45-60M), and balance of plant. Maintenance capex (1-2% of initial capex annually) sustains operations; major turnarounds every 4-5 years add step-up costs. The Debt Schedule models construction period drawdowns and interest capitalization, then post-COD amortizing repayments sculpted to maintain target DSCR (typically 1.25-1.30x). A Debt Service Reserve Account (6 months forward) ensures covenant cushion.

This model applies to infrastructure funds, sponsors, lenders, and NOCs evaluating terminal investments or expansions. Typical equity IRR targets 10-15%; project IRR 7-12%. Key sensitivities are LNG spreads (contracted vs. spot prices), utilization rates, and commodity price pass-through mechanisms embedded in contracts.